Croatia vs Wales Picks and Predictions: Experienced Croatia Takes Advantage of Rebuilding Wales

Saturday serves up a hugely intriguing game with Croatia vs Wales, who are meeting in Group D of the qualification for the 2024 Euros. Both teams have been defined by talismanic icons, who both played for Real Madrid, in recent years.

For the hosts Croatia, they welcome Luka Modric back, who at 37 years old is still one of the world’s best. However, Wales are at the other end of their great era, as they’ve said goodbye to the retired Gareth Bale and now step forward into a new world without their greatest ever player. 

Don’t miss our Croatia vs Wales picks and predictions for Euro Qualifiers.

Croatia vs Wales best odds

Odds courtesy of bet365 on March 22, 2023.

Croatia vs Wales picks and predictions

This Group D clash between Croatia and Wales features two teams who had very different World Cups. Both teams went to Qatar looking for one last push from Luka Modric and Gareth Bale, but it was Croatia who did best, and very nearly succeeded.

Croatia got to the semi-finals where they lost to eventual winners Argentina, while Wales crashed out in their group in disappointment. Modric looked like a man somehow evading Father Time, whereas Bale looked like it had caught up with him. This wasn’t the Bale we had seen for so many years in a Welsh shirt, but it wasn’t just him that disappointed, as the likes of Aaron Ramsey and Joe Allen also looked like shadows of their former selves.

This Croatia vs Wales game offers us one of the best bets of the entire international break, with Croatia -1 available at +175. But be quick, as this is another price that will probably get smaller as the week progresses and kickoff approaches.

Zlatko Dalic has got his squad together in Split ahead of this game and is able to call upon Modric, something Robert Page can no longer do with the recently retired Bale. This week Dalic has claimed that his team has never been stronger, which is scary considering they’ve reached a final and semifinal in back-to-back World Cups. The likes of Marcelo Brozovic and Mateo Kovacic are back, as is Andrej Kramaric, all players better than those in the red shirts of Wales. 

It feels like a reset with Wales, an opportunity to start fresh. In addition to Bale, they also said goodbye to Joe Allen and Chris Gunter. With Ben Davies and Wayne Hennessey withdrawing with injury this week, it leaves only Aaron Ramsey as a truly experienced player. It’s also worth considering how poor Ramsey looked at the World Cup, when he really seemed like a passenger for large periods of games.

It says a lot that Page has called up Morgan Fox, a 29-year old leftback who plays for Stoke in the Championship for his debut. No disrespect meant for Fox, but this isn’t a team that is packed with either great stars or brilliant young talent either.

Wales is a young and inexperienced team coming up against one of the shrewdest teams in international soccer in Croatia, which unfortunately will only end in one way. In all honesty, Welsh fans are likely to have a number of dark days ahead as they rebuild after the most successful period in their history.

One blessing for Wales is that Croatia aren’t stacked with brilliant strikers playing at the top level, but that probably won’t matter. Not only will Croatia win, but they’ll also win heavily. 

I’m suggesting backing Croatia -1 goal to win, which is huge value at +175, but I’ll also be having a smaller wager on Croatia -2, because I really am confident this could be a dark day for Robert Page and his Welsh team.

My best bet: Croatia -1 (+175 at PointsBet)

Croatia vs Wales side analysis

You’re getting -175 on Croatia winning, and while it’s too small for me to recommend betting, it’s something I can certainly see happening, Croatia should win this game comfortably, especially in front of their home fans in an atmosphere that has historically been tough for visiting teams.

Croatia have named two uncapped players in their squad, a third-choice goalkeeper and 25-year old Petar Musa, who has scored five goals in 21 appearances for Benfica this season. This is a hugely experienced team with six players on 80 or above caps for Croatia, and that knowledge will be beneficial in this game. 

In the backline there is Josip Stanisic, with the 22-year-old having been great for Bayern Munich this season. It’s 21-year-old Josko Gvardiol who is the key member of the new breed of Croat players. The RB Leipzig central defender is a physical monster who has been exceptional for club and country.

A midfield of Modric and Kovacic is one that can toy with Wales and control the game as they like before feeding the likes of Kramaric, who’ll be playing up front.

Wales have seven players who could make their debuts against Croatia, and picking the starting lineup will be quite tough for Page with so few established stars in the team. While Croatia has six players with over 80 caps, Wales has none, with Ramsey closest at 78.

We know we’ll see Harry Wilson and Ramsey play, and there’s almost certainly going to be space for Ethan Ampadu, who might play in midfield or at the back. Joe Rodon and Neco Williams are 25 and 21, respectively, and should start at the back. 

It’s looking bleak up front for Wales. Kieffer Moore could start, as could Dan James, but Brennan Johnson is the only really exciting player in there. He’s having a great season so far for Nottingham Forest, but he’s dealing with an injury and could be unavailable.

Croatia vs Wales Over/Under analysis

It’s -138 that we see Under 2.5 goals in this game, with the Over being priced at +112, and it’s a tough to decide which side to bet on. 

Croatia scored eight goals in seven games at the World Cup, but it’s worth noting that four of those were in one game when they look advantage of Canada’s efforts to go forward and really punished them with a scoreline that probably flattered Croatia. A further two goals also came against Morocco in the meaningless third-place playoff.

I see Croatia scoring at least two, potentially three, so I’d personally lean towards backing Over 2.5 goals here. But given how toothless Wales looked at the World Cup, it’s hard to imagine them contributing towards the match’s goals tally. This is a market I’d probably lean towards avoiding, as there’s better value to be had elsewhere.

Croatia vs Wales game info

Croatia vs Wales key injuries

Croatia: None.
Wales: Brennan Johnson (questionable)

Croatia vs Wales weather

A cloudy but dry day in Split, Croatia will see temperatures touching 60 degrees before kickoff.

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