Chicago Fire vs Inter Miami Predictions and Picks: Chicago Secures Three Much-Needed Points

With just a few matches to go until the MLS Cup Playoffs, Inter Miami must pick up points, and quickly. The next chance to do so comes Wednesday night when the Herons travel to the Windy City to take on the Chicago Fire.

The Fire were able to hold off the New York Red Bulls on Saturday and pick up a key win, pulling them level on points with the final team in the Eastern Conference playoff standings. With a match in hand over one of the two teams they’re tied with, they’ll be relishing the opportunity to take maximum points from their final two matches at home this week. 

Lionel Messi was once again absent from proceedings as Inter Miami fell on Saturday night against NYCFC, and their exhausted squad must once again hit the road for a long flight on short rest. With rumors abounding that Messi’s out for the season — and not a “game-time decision” as manager Tata Martino keeps claiming — tensions are high for a side clinging to ever-slimming chances.

The showdown at Soldier Field will have key implications for the MLS playoff picture, and we break down how you should wager on the match in my free betting picks below.

Chicago Fire vs Inter Miami best odds

Chicago Fire vs Inter Miami picks and predictions

In our Inter Miami vs. NYCFC preview, I discussed how prone Miami was to turning the ball over in the center of the pitch and giving up counter-attacks. And that’s exactly what happened. NYCFC had numerous opportunities in the first half and failed to convert them — including a sliding effort inside the six-yard box that registered an xG of 0.54 and yet somehow was put wide of goal. 

Ironically enough, the goal NYCFC did manage to score came from the most unlikely effort of the night — an extreme angle shot that beat Miami keeper Drake Callender over his head at the near post. It should’ve been enough to win the match, but their defense was unable to hold on as Josef Martinez headed home the equalizer in the 94th minute.

Inter Miami nearly stole the match a few minutes later, hitting the underside of the bar from a few yards out. It would’ve been a cruel defeat for NYCFC, who controlled the match and should’ve had it put away much earlier, but you can’t waste chances in MLS and expect to not pay for it.

It took an absolute sense of desperation over the final 20 minutes for Inter Miami to secure a point, but the fact is they really needed three. 

Chicago came away with three important points in their match against New York Red Bulls, but they struggled at times with the press employed against them. They were fortunate to not be trailing at halftime, as Chris Brady put in a Man of the Match performance in goal. 

The Fire were outshot 18-5 on the night, but a red card for NYRB in the 62nd minute changed everything. They were able to score on the ensuing free kick, as Georgios Koutsias buried a header off a perfect delivery from Xherdan Shaqiri. They will be annoyed that Shaqiri didn’t double their lead with five minutes left in regulation when he was played in on goal but put his shot wide.

Once NYRB could no longer pressure them, Chicago played very well. They began counter-pressing and had a few chances to break in on goal, and I anticipate a similar situation on Wednesday night. Miami can’t wait until the final minutes to play with urgency — they must get a win. 

Chicago is tied on points with CF Montreal and DC United, and one point behind NYCFC with a match in hand as of Sunday. While a draw wouldn’t be a result they’d prefer, it’s one they could live with.

And that’s why I see them winning. Miami’s legs are gone, and they don’t have the energy to press Chicago the way NYRB did. And that’s good for the Fire because they aren’t very good at maintaining possession and building up an attack.

What they're good at is breaking with pace and letting Shaqiri dictate the attack. Miami struggles mightily to defend against counter-attacks, and the Fire are terrific at winning the ball back in dangerous areas. 

TonyBet is giving us plus money on the 3-way line with Chicago priced at +121. I’m not passing that up. The Fire have struggled their last few matches at home, but all of those matches came against teams entrenched in the playoffs.

Prior to that, they’d lost just once at home all season. And they’ve never lost to Miami at Soldier Field — a stat that won’t change this weekend. 

My best bet: Chicago Fire moneyline (+121 at TonyBet)

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Chicago Fire vs Inter Miami same-game parlay

Chicago Fire ML (+125)

Inter Miami TT Under 2 (-150)

Over 7 corners (-300)

Kei Kamara Over 0.5 shots on target (-250)

+300 at bet365

In addition to taking Chicago to win the match, we’re adding three additional legs to our same-game parlay over at bet365 as we look to cash in further on this match.

Prior to their recent stretch against playoff teams, the Fire kept three straight clean sheets at home against Nashville, CF Montreal, and Toronto. They’ve held nine of the 15 visiting teams to one or fewer goals this season, and Miami simply aren’t creating enough high-quality opportunities without Jordi Alba and Messi on the pitch. Chicago will limit them to less than two goals.

With the playing styles they employ, Chicago tends to concede a lot of corners — 185 to be exact, the second-most in the league. Inter Miami’s prone to shoot from range of late, and their corner totals have been elevated because of it. Therefore, we’ll take 8+ corners in this one.

Finally, Kei Kamara is expected to start having been rested in Chicago’s last match. He leads the team with just under two shots per game, and the counter-attacking style they’ll employ will provide him a few chances on the break to get cleaner looks than usual. He'll put one of them on target against Miami.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Chicago Fire vs Inter Miami side and Over/Under analysis

As we’re taking the Fire to win outright, the 3-way line is already somewhat broken down for us. However, those looking to take Miami to win will get a price just shy of +200 at most places with the draw paying out nearly +300.

As more information comes out regarding Messi, those lines could shift a bit. However, the market appears to finally be coming to grips with the fact he’s not going to be available, no matter how much Martino keeps claiming he “could” be.

The total of 2.5 goals is showing strong money on the Over, with prices of -150 or higher. The Under is paying as much as +130 for those willing to buck the trend. 

That said, I’d lean towards the Over. Inter Miami’s need to win will push them to play more openly and should lead to goals. I see this one ending in the 2-1 or 3-1 range for Chicago. 

Chicago Fire vs Inter Miami game info

Chicago Fire vs Inter Miami key injuries

Chicago Fire: Chris Mueller F (Out) Federico Navarro M (Out), Mauricio Pineda D (Out). 
Inter Miami: Lionel Messi F (Doubtful), Jordi Alba D (Out), Corentin Jean F (Out). 

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