Canada vs Guadeloupe Picks and Predictions: Don't Anticipate Much Scoring

With their top stars sitting out, Canada are turning to Plan B as they kick off their Gold Cup campaign against Guadeloupe on Tuesday at BMO Field.

Alphonso Davies, Cyle Larin, and Jonathan David are among the absentees for the Canadians as they look to bounce back from a disappointing 2-0 loss to the USMNT in the CONCACAF Nations League final.

Guadeloupe get the underdog tag here in their first appearance at the Gold Cup since 2011, but they qualified in style for the group stage after knockout wins over Antigua Barbuda and Guyana.

Get the lowdown on this Gold Cup battle with our free Canada vs Guadeloupe picks and predictions for Tuesday, June 27.

Canada vs Guadeloupe best odds

Odds courtesy of bet365 on June 26, 2023.

Canada vs Guadeloupe picks and predictions

When Canada have been at their best over the past few years, it’s been the Davies-Larin-David trio leading the way, so I’m expecting some growing pains as John Herdman turns to his secondary attacking options on Tuesday night.

There’s still plenty of quality at his disposal, including the experienced Junior Hoilett and Lucas Cavallini, plus fresher faces like Jacob Shaffelburg, Jacen Russell-Rowe, and Charles-Andreas Brym. But the Guadeloupe defense is no doubt breathing a sigh of relief about the Canadians’ big guns watching from home.

Guadeloupe, coming off clean sheets in both Gold Cup qualifying games, will be no pushovers. With an organized shape and a defensive game plan, I see the visitors frustrating Canada and testing the chemistry in their reshuffled lineup.

Something felt a little off in the Canadians’ lackluster performance against the USMNT earlier this month, with some of the momentum fizzling out after the magnificent World Cup qualifying run. Now they have to rebound without their biggest threats in the final third. That doesn’t feel like a recipe for a goal-fest.

With the potential for Canada laboring to find a rhythm without their go-to stars, I like the Under 2.5 goals prop, with Guadeloupe making the home side sweat.

My best bet: Under 2.5 Goals (+100 at bet365)

Canada vs Guadeloupe side analysis

Unsurprisingly, Canada are high-priced favorites despite missing Davies’ creative spark and the lethal strike pairing of Larin and David. While Guadeloupe did pull off an upset over the Canadians back in 2007, it would be a shock on an even larger scale if the visitors repeat that trick here.

On paper, Herdman’s men have a clear talent edge even with some of the changes in attack, but the Nations League final loss to the USMNT was a wake-up call for anyone thinking Canada were the cream of CONCACAF these days. That disjointed performance raised some alarm bells as the Canadians were outplayed, outfought, and outthought.

So, what kind of backlash will we see on Tuesday? If the hosts were at full strength, I’d be grabbing the odds for a free-scoring response, but it’s fair to wonder where the goals will come from.

I still see Canada emerging with the three points, especially if they get a youthful jolt from some of their uncapped players, but the margin of victory could be slim. If Guadeloupe can withstand the early pressure and prevent the home crowd from becoming a factor, you just never know.

Canada vs Guadeloupe Over/Under analysis

I’ve made the case for the Under above, with the feeling that a cagey contest seems likelier than Canada’s tweaked lineup hitting the ground running. Herdman should have had his team’s full attention in the build-up to this game after the Nations League final setback, and this is a huge opportunity for fringe squad members to step up as the Canadians try to go one better than their semifinal run in 2021. Still, it may take a few games for this new-look squad to click.

Goal-scoring chances will likely come at a premium for Guadeloupe, with Canada fielding an experienced backline in front of Milan Borjan. Prior to the loss to the USMNT, the Canadians had only conceded once over their last three games.

But in the first round of qualifying the visitors put five goals past an Antigua Barbuda team that had given them trouble in Concacaf Nations League action. Thierry Ambrose is set to lead the Guadeloupe attack, though he may be short on support if the visitors are forced to sit deep.

Canada vs Guadeloupe game info

Canada vs Guadeloupe key injuries

Canada: None.
Guadeloupe: None.

Canada vs Guadeloupe weather

Rain is expected throughout the day in Toronto through the evening, so this could be a wet and wild affair with slippery conditions and winds upwards of 36 mph.

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