With Manchester City having secured their place in the FA Cup final, cross-town rivals Manchester United hope to join them when they face Brighton in Sunday’s semifinal from Wembley Stadium.
The Red Devils are licking their wounds after a 3-0 thrashing at the hands of Sevilla in Thursday’s Europa League matchup, which saw them eliminated from the competition. Meanwhile, Brighton handed their opponents a defeat early in the campaign, and come into the match seeking their first FA Cup final appearance in 40 years in a fine run of form.
Will this amazing season continue with a shot at silverware for the Seagulls, or will the Red Devils turn the FA Cup final into a Manchester Derby? We break down those storylines, and give our best free betting pick, in our Brighton vs. Manchester United predictions for Sunday, April 23.
Brighton vs Manchester United best odds
 Brighton |
 Manchester United |
|
|---|---|---|
| +130 | Moneyline | +200 |
| +250 | Draw | +250 |
| Over 2.5 (-138) | Total | Under 2.5 (+110) |
Odds courtesy of bet365 on April 22, 2023.
Brighton vs Manchester United picks and predictions
As a Manchester United fan, Thursday’s match was everything I expected it to be — a Harry Maguire masterclass. After conceding a critical own goal in the first leg, he assisted Sevilla’s opener when he turned it over near his own penalty area under pressure... and Man U were never truly in the match after that.
Erik ten Hag came to his defense after the match, but the decision whether to start Maguire again or not is out of his hands as the center back is suspended. Thus, Luke Shaw is expected to take over as a makeshift central defender as the side continues to reel from the loss of both Raphael Varane and Lisandro Martinez in central defense.
Shaw came in off the bench and still isn’t at full fitness, but playing in the middle could help keep him involved as he’s not bombing up and down the flank. That also means right back Diogo Dalot will likely have to shift from his natural right position to the left, where he’s had issues.
The Red Devils will also hope that the return of Marcus Rashford, who also came in as a second-half sub from injury, and the suspended Bruno Fernandes will be enough to help turn things around. That said, I’m not sure that it will matter against this Brighton side, especially considering Man United’s issues away from Old Trafford.
Yes, ten Hag’s men were able to secure a win in the Carabao Cup final against Newcastle earlier this year at Wembley, but they did so in a tight match against a side missing their three best goalkeepers and one of their best midfielders. While Brighton certainly aren’t at full health, they do have their most dangerous players available to them.
The midfield trio of Kaoru Mitoma, Solly March, and Alexis Mac Allister have been terrorizing defenses for the past two months, and former Man U striker Danny Welbeck will lead the line for a team that loves to press. Brighton rank fourth in the Premier League in fewest passes per defensive action and second in pass accuracy once they get it back.
Manchester United’s biggest problems this season — and some of their most lopsided defeats — have come against teams that pressure them. David de Gea simply struggles with playing to feet out of the back, and I fully expect him to commit an error at some point that leads to yet another goal.
You can get plus-money odds on Brighton to win in regulation at every book, but bet365 has a non-parlay enhanced 3-way line that you can take advantage of to go from +130 to +141 for the Seagulls to win at the end of full time. That’s too good to pass up and that’s why it’s my best bet.
My best bet: Brighton enhanced moneyline (+141 at bet365)
Looking to do some FA Cup betting? Here are two of the best bonuses* available:
A) New users at FanDuel can bet $5 and get $200 in bonus bets! Sign Up Now
B) New users at DraftKings can bet $5 and get $200 in bonus bets! Sign Up Now
*Eligible USA locations only. Also, check out our full list of best soccer betting sites for 2023.
21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER
Brighton vs Manchester United side analysis
Brighton have conceded the second-fewest shots in the Premier League this season and have the third-lowest expected goals against. They’re stingy at the back, a key reason why they’ve conceded just 14 goals over their last 17 matches in all competitions with just two defeats in that span.
They’ll have to go without a few key pieces in that defense on Sunday, however, as Tariq Lamptey and Joel Veltman will be absent, while forwards Evan Ferguson and Jeremy Sarmiento also remain out.
Manchester United will be hopeful that the midfield trio of Casemiro, Fernandes, and Eriksen can remain unbeaten this season, with 15 wins and two draws in their 17 matches as a starting midfield. Unfortunately, the defense behind them is riddled with injury and concerns and that could limit their ability to push up the pitch.
Along with Martinez and Varane, midfielder Donny van de Beek and winger Alejandro Garnacho are out with injury, while Maguire is suspended. Striker Anthony Martial is doubtful, meaning Wout Weghorst will reclaim his starting role.
The Man United attack isn’t as potent with Weghorst on the pitch, and Brighton will do well to keep tabs on Antony and Rashford. They will funnel play into the middle and look to create turnovers with their pressure against a side prone to making mistakes.
Brighton vs Manchester United Over/Under analysis
The Over is heavily favored at the moment with -138 being the best price available. Brighton’s last five matches have seen four Overs, with 19 total goals scored, and Brighton themselves have scored multiple goals in six of their last eight in all competitions.
Manchester United gave up three goals mid-week, ending a run of four Unders in five matches, but it’s been a mixed bag away from Old Trafford. They’ve kept four clean sheets in their last eight away fixtures, but three of those matches came against teams currently in the relegation zone.
Against Liverpool, Man U conceded seven, while Newcastle scored two, and that’s more indicative of the level of play the Red Devils will face this weekend — Man United were shut out by both of those teams as well.
Personally, I will be staying away from the full-game Total, but one market to keep an eye on is the team total for Brighton. You can get them at Over 1.5 goals at plus money across the board, and that for me is very solid value against Man United’s makeshift defense, and a bet I’ll also be playing in addition to the Brighton ML.
Brighton vs Manchester United game info
| Location: | Wembley Stadium, London, England |
| Date: | Sunday, April 22, 2023 |
| Time: | 11:30 a.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN+ |
Brighton vs Manchester United key injuries
Brighton: Tariq Lamptey D (Out), Joel Veltman D (Out), Evan Ferguson F (Out).
Manchester United: Harry Maguire D (Out), Raphael Varane D (Out), Lisandro Martinez D (Out), Anthony Martial F (Doubtful).
Brighton vs Manchester United weather
Wembley’s pitch will be a wet one on Sunday, with rain throughout the day causing things to be a bit slick. Temperatures in the mid-50s will not be aided by wind, as little is expected.
