Thanksgiving Weekend Picks, Football Predictions & Basketball Odds

The ultimate sports betting weekend has finally arrived, and we have you covered with a selection of best bets from our top analysts.

Ryan Murphy - Managing Editor at Covers.com
Ryan Murphy • Managing Editor
Nov 30, 2024 • 11:00 ET • 5 min read
Alabama Crimson Tide quarterback Jalen Milroe (4) gestures to fans before the start of the Crimson Tide game with Mercer.
Photo By - Imagn Images. Alabama Crimson Tide quarterback Jalen Milroe (4) gestures to fans before the start of the Crimson Tide game with Mercer.

Sports fans have plenty to be thankful for this weekend with a cornucopia of games and tournaments to feast on.

The celebration begins on Thursday with a tasty NFL triple-header, featuring several teams with genuine Super Bowl aspirations, plus a high octane AAC grudge match between Memphis and No. 20 Tulane — you'd be a turkey to miss out on the action!

Have room for more? Friday is stuffed full of high-profile college football games as well as the second annual Black Friday NFL game featuring a pair of familiar foes in the Las Vegas Raiders and Kansas City Chiefs.

"The Game" takes centerstage on Saturday as Michigan faces No. 2 Ohio State in Columbus in a matchup with College Football Playoff implications. 

The celebration concludes on Sunday with a pulse-pounding F1 race on the other side of the planet, a smattering of NFL games, a pinch of NBA and NHL action, and a dollop of college hoops.

It’s a lot to consume, and we won’t judge you if you need a nap trying to track all your betting picks — so let us help out this weekend with the highlights and insights for the Ultimate Sports Betting Weekend in 2024.

Thanksgiving Day picks, predictions, odds

It wouldn't be Thanksgiving without the Lions. Detroit has played on Turkey Day every year since 1945, compiling a 37-45-2 record on America's favorite feasting day.

Jared Goff & Co. enter Thursday's matchup with the Bears as big 10-points favorites and are widely expected to roll to their NFL-best 10th win in a row. 

League Matchup Time (ET)
NFL Bears Bears vs. Lions Lions Noon
NCAAB Battle 4 Atlantis Semifinal: Louisville Louisville vs. West Virginia West Virginia Noon
NCAAB Battle 4 Atlantis Semifinal: Indiana Indiana vs. Gonzaga Gonzaga 2:30 p.m.
NFL Giants Giants vs. Cowboys Cowboys 4:30 p.m.
NCAAF Memphis Memphis vs. Tulane Tulane 7:00 p.m.
NFL Dolphins Dolphins vs. Packers Packers 8:15 p.m.

Best bets for Thanksgiving

Bears vs. Lions: D'Andre Swift Over 13.5 receiving yards (-113 FanDuel)

D'Andre Swift has been a fixture in the aerial attack and recorded 22 or more receiving yards in seven of 11 games for an average of 2.8 receptions and 25.3 yards per contest. 

With the Chicago Bears double-digit road underdogs, I expect them to be in a lot of passing situations against the Detroit Lions.

The Lions also have the fourth-highest quarterback pressure percentage and PFF pass-rush grade, so QB Caleb Williams turning to Swift multiple times through the air is a means to help mitigate the Detroit pass rush.
-Neil Parker

Dolphins vs. Packers: Josh Jacobs Over 89.5 rushing + receiving yards (-114 FanDuel)

Green Bay Packers running back Josh Jacobs has recorded 90 or more yards from scrimmage in nine of 11 games for an average of 102.7 per, and he’s handled double-digit carries in all but one game this season. 

Add Jacobs coming off a rested effort with his second-lowest snap share (52%) while also posting his highest PFF rushing grade of the season, and I’m anticipating another busy and productive night for the go-to rusher.

It’s also a short week with travel for the Miami Dolphins defense, and while it's a stop unit trending in the right direction, the Pack are an uptick in class. 

Miami is expected to be without starting inside linebacker Anthony Walker (hamstring), too, and the Dolphins posted their second-lowest PFF tackle grade last week against the basement-dwelling New England Patriots to drop to the third-lowest mark for the campaign.
-Neil Parker

Black Friday picks, predictions, odds

Thanksgiving may be done, but there's still another appetizing spread available when the Raiders visit the Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium. Sure, KC may be 10-1, but Andy Reid's squad has won eight of those games by one touchdown or less and has shown an unnerving penchant for playing down to the competition. Expecting the Chiefs to cover a massive 12-point spread may be unreasonable, especially on a short week.

Add in the fact the Chiefs are just 5-6 ATS this season and it's easy to see why 57% of Covers users are siding with the Raiders.

League Matchup Time (ET)
NCAAB Battle 4 Atlantis Final: Oklahoma Oklahoma vs. Louisville Louisville 5:30 p.m.
NCAAF Oklahoma State Oklahoma State vs. Colorado Colorado Noon
NBA Knicks Knicks vs. Hornets Hornets Noon
NHL Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Blackhawks Chicago Blackhawks 2:00 p.m.
NFL Raiders Raiders vs. Chiefs Chiefs 3:00 p.m.
NCAAF Mississippi State Mississippi State vs. Mississippi Mississippi 3:30 p.m.
NCAAF Georgia Tech Georgia Tech vs. Georgia Georgia 7:30 p.m.
NBA Clippers Clippers vs. Timberwolves Timberwolves 7:30 p.m.
NBA Thunder Thunders vs. Lakers Lakers 10:00 p.m.

Best bets for Black Friday

Brock Bowers Over 6.5 receptions (-106 FanDuel)

Brock Bowers is having a fantastic rookie season in Sin City and has been at his best when Aidan O’Connell is taking snaps.

O’Connell, who was out with a broken thumb, is expected to be under center for the first time since October 20 when the Las Vegas Raiders head to Arrowhead Stadium today. He’s played in only four games for the Raiders in 2024, and Bowers has been at his busiest with AOC making throws.

In O’Connell’s last three starts — spanning Weeks 5 through 7 — Bowers drew 12, 10, and 14 targets, panning out to eight, nine, and 10 receptions. That’s a significant spike in involvement compared to his targets/receptions before and after O’Connell was at QB.
-Jason Logan

Oklahoma State vs. Colorado Over 65.5 (-110 BetMGM)

OK State doesn’t play sound defense. The Cowboys surrender a whopping 503.3 total yards per game on 6.8 yards per play. The advanced metrics aren’t any better — the Pokes rank 132nd in both EPA per play and explosiveness, failing to stop the run or the pass. 

They get no push up front, don’t get into the backfield, and don’t rush the passer. Combine that with an inability to blanket opposing receivers, and it’s no mystery why this defense has been lit aflame with regularity. 

Shedeur Sanders, Travis Hunter, and this Buffs offense should have a tremendous day offensively. Colorado averages 6.1 yards per play and has two potential Top 5 NFL Draft picks leading the way, and it hardly requires that level of talent to put up a crooked number against the Pokes.
-JD Yonke

Mississippi State vs. Mississippi: Mississippi State +26.5 (-110 BetMGM)

Despite not having a conference win to speak of, the Mississippi State Bulldogs have played better in SEC play and are 5-2 against the spread — including 4-0 ATS when getting 21 points or more.

Interestingly enough, Mississippi State went on this ATS run when freshman QB Michael Van Buren Jr. took over for the injured Blake Sharpen. Van Buren has shown flashes of his potential, throwing for 1,362 yards with 10 touchdowns and five interceptions over his seven starts. In fact, the Bulldogs enter this game ranked a respectable 59th in offensive success rate and Van Buren is a big part of the reason why.

There is only one team motivated to play in this game, and it’s the Bulldogs. A win here would mean so much to the program. Do I think they get it? I’m not sure, but give me Mississippi State to cover another big spread.
-Andrew Caley

Check back soon for more best bets and analysis for Friday's top games.

Picks, predictions, odds for Saturday, November 30

Still craving more football? You're in luck! There are 50 NCAAF games on tap on Saturday including intense grudge matches between Florida State and Florida, Auburn and Alabama, and Michigan and Ohio State.

"The Game" may not have the same luster as 2023 when the Wolverines and Ohio State were both Top 3 teams, but make no mistake about it, all eyes will be on Columbus when these storied programs hit the field. The Wolverines have won each of the last three iterations of this heavily-hyped matchup, but the Buckeyes are coming in with added motivation as a win will send them to Indianapolis to face Oregon in the Big Ten Championship Game.

League Matchup Time (ET)
NCAAF Florida State Florida State vs. Florida Florida TBD
NCAAF Michigan Michigan vs. Ohio State Ohio State Noon
NHL Canadiens Canadiens vs. Rangers Rangers 1:00 p.m.
NCAAF Auburn Auburn vs. Alabama Alabama 3:30 p.m.
NHL Maple Leafs Maple Leafs vs. Lightning Lightning 7:00 p.m.
NCAAF Texas Texas vs. Texas A&M Texas A&M 7:30 p.m.
NBA Warriors Warriors vs. Mavericks Suns 9:00 p.m.
NBA Hoffenheim Mavericks vs. Mavericks Jazz 9:30 p.m.
NCAAB Players Era Tournament Championship: Oregon Oregon vs. Alabama Alabama 9:30 p.m.
NHL Oilers Oilers vs. Avalanche Avalanche 10:00 p.m.
NCAAB New Mexico New Mexico vs. Hawai'i Hawai'i 11:00 p.m.

Best bets for Saturday

Michigan vs. Ohio State: Ohio State -19.5 (-115 BetMGM)

The Buckeyes needed to worry about Indiana’s offense, but they will not have those worries against Michigan. Single coverage will be enough to shut down this woeful passing game, and then the Buckeyes’ newly aggressive defensive front should stifle any rushing attack.

So thoroughly shutting down the Wolverines’ offense will create plenty of opportunities for Will Howard and Ryan Day to run up the score. Each stalled Michigan drive will quickly give the ball back to Ohio State, and the Buckeyes produce quality drives on 54.4% of their possessions, No. 13 in the country. That many bites at the apple will yield at least 30 points, even if the Wolverines’ defense is well above average. It simply is not at the stellar level it has been in recent years.

Playoff positioning is at stake, as is a personal score. And Day will finally get his vengeance.
-Douglas Farmer

Auburn vs. Alabama: Under 26.5 first-half total (-105 BetMGM)

The Auburn Tigers enter this game ranked 18th in defensive success rate and 44th in opponent EPA/play. The Tigers are particularly stout against the rush, ranking 13th in success rate against the rush, and are eighth in the country allowing just 3.0 yards per carry.

Selling out to stop Jalen Milroe on the ground and force him to become a passer has seemingly been the key to stopping the Alabama Crimson Tide. In the Tide’s other two losses, Tennessee held him to 11 yards on 14 carries and Vanderbilt limited him to just 10 yards on seven carries. Auburn has the blueprint and the ability to do that.

Meanwhile, on offense, the Tigers will rely on star running back Jarquez Hunter, who has rumbled for 1,145 yards on 6.6 yards per carry. And running the ball is something all of those teams did successfully when defeating Alabama.

Running the football and playing good defense can mean only one thing. Another SEC first-half Under.
-Andrew Caley

Picks, predictions, odds for Sunday, December 1

Feathers will fly on Sunday when the Eagles tangle with the Ravens. Baltimore is riding high following an impressive 30-23 win over the Chargers on Monday Night Football, while Philly is looking for its eighth win in a row behind the dynamic duo of Jalen Hurts and Saquon Barkley.

The All-Pro running back is coming off a record-setting 255 yard performance against the Rams and is on pace to become the Eagles' single-season rushing leader. Oddsmakers have set his rushing total at a reasonably modest 92.5 yards, but that number is ticking upwards quickly.

League Matchup Time (ET)
EPL Liverpool Liverpool vs. Manchester City Manchester City 11:00 a.m.
F1 Qatar Grand Prix Noon
NFL Steelers Steelers  vs. Bengals Bengals 1:00 p.m.
NHL Canadiens Canadiens vs. Bruins Bruins 3:00 p.m.
NFL Eagles Eagles vs. Ravens Ravens 4:25 p.m.
NHL Jets Jets vs. Stars Stars 4:30 p.m.
NBA Celtics Celtics vs. Cavaliers Cavaliers 6:00 p.m.
NFL 49ers 49ers vs. Bills Bills 8:15 p.m.
NBA Spurs Spurs vs. Kings Kings 9:00 p.m.
NBA Nuggets Nuggets vs. Clippers Clippers 10:00 p.m.

Best bets for Sunday

Steelers vs. Bengals: Steelers +3 (-110 BetMGM)

The Cincinnati Bengals may be fresh off a bye and desperate for a win, but it's tough to turn down the Pittsburgh Steelers catching a field goal. The Steelers currently lead the division at 8-3, and while they've faced the second-weakest schedule in the league, the Bengals rank just 25th in strength of schedule themselves. 

Against teams that are currently .500 or better, the Bengals have gone 0-6 straight up and 2-4 against the spread. Meanwhile, the Steelers have faced only three teams currently with winning records (the Chargers, Commanders, and Ravens), but picked up victories in all three of those contests.
-Rohit Ponnaiya

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Ryan Murphy Managing Editor at Covers
Managing Editor

Ryan Murphy began his love affair with sports journalism at the age of nine when he wrote his first article about his little league baseball team. He has since authored his own weekly column for Fox Sports and AskMen and has created successful campaigns for some of the biggest and most trusted brands in the world including Walt Disney, HBO, the WWE, the NHL, and the NFL.

“Murph,” as he’s known to friends, began his journey in sports betting in 2017, and enjoyed a highly rewarding tenure at Churchill Downs, where he oversaw the creation of the TwinSpires Edge and served as the publication’s first editor-in-chief. His nose for news and ability to find and nurture talent helped turn the site into a major player within the online gambling industry.

Although Ryan loves examining odds movement and breaking down matchups, he’s also a prolific creative writer whose critically acclaimed stories have been published in 21 books and have been featured on more than 170 radio stations and 40 newspapers. His latest book, My Life’s a Joke, is a laugh-out-loud memoir about the epic fails that thickened his skin and paved the way for a successful 15-year career as a touring stand-up comedian.

Ryan’s top piece of advice to sports bettors: “Bet with your head, not your heart. It pains me to be pragmatic, but blind loyalty has no place in sports wagering.”

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