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    All Forums | Systems & Strategies

    Saber Stunner

    123 Next Last»
    Call82
    jay1234
    kreatture
    therizz
    Blue_Chips
    ...
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    123 Next Last»
     
    Call82
    Call82
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    Posted: Mar. 30, 2011 - 6:00 AM ET #1

    Hi Folks,

     

    its been a long wait but its finally over...I have finetuned my excel-sheet as much as possible (at least from my perspective) and will post the plays for opening day later on...stay tuned, I am looking forward to the new season

    Reply
    To remove first post, remove entire topic.

    Hi Folks,

     

    its been a long wait but its finally over...I have finetuned my excel-sheet as much as possible (at least from my perspective) and will post the plays for opening day later on...stay tuned, I am looking forward to the new season

     
    jay1234
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    Posted: Mar. 30, 2011 - 11:30 AM ET #2

    I LIKED YOUR YOUR SYSTEM FROM LAST YEAR  
    Reply
    I LIKED YOUR YOUR SYSTEM FROM LAST YEAR  
     
    kreatture
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    Posted: Mar. 30, 2011 - 11:46 AM ET #3

    You even have a cool name for it! HaHa, awesome.

    It's gonna be a great summer and Sabermetrics will guide the way! MLB is the one sport where a pure numbers guy can actually consistently make a good return, unlike the other sports.

    Will your thread here be open to discussion on Sabermetrics, like posting different formulas which people use and such, or would you prefer to just keep this thread for the picks?

    Can't believe tomorrow is Opening Day.. I'm SO EXCITED!!   

     

    Reply

    You even have a cool name for it! HaHa, awesome.

    It's gonna be a great summer and Sabermetrics will guide the way! MLB is the one sport where a pure numbers guy can actually consistently make a good return, unlike the other sports.

    Will your thread here be open to discussion on Sabermetrics, like posting different formulas which people use and such, or would you prefer to just keep this thread for the picks?

    Can't believe tomorrow is Opening Day.. I'm SO EXCITED!!   

     

     
    therizz
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    Posted: Mar. 30, 2011 - 6:44 PM ET #4

    Good luck Call82,

    Glad to see you're back

    Reply

    Good luck Call82,

    Glad to see you're back

     
    Call82
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    Posted: Mar. 31, 2011 - 2:37 AM ET #5

    @ jay: I liked it too, but the fluctuations got pretty heavy sometimes and I have to say, I feel more comfortable with actually capping the games than just following the old chase :-)

    @ kreatture: I would eb more than happy to discuss Sabermetrics in here, one thing I have discussed with a couple of people before (and it seems I am the only one with my optinion) is that GDP should be counted as two outs since I also foce someone else into an out which is not counted in his stats...happy to discuss

    @therizz: Glad to be back, hope we will have a fun and profitable year together...

     

    Picks will follow within the next hours...YEEEEEAHA, the day is finally there....PLAY  !!!!!!!!!!!

    Reply

    @ jay: I liked it too, but the fluctuations got pretty heavy sometimes and I have to say, I feel more comfortable with actually capping the games than just following the old chase :-)

    @ kreatture: I would eb more than happy to discuss Sabermetrics in here, one thing I have discussed with a couple of people before (and it seems I am the only one with my optinion) is that GDP should be counted as two outs since I also foce someone else into an out which is not counted in his stats...happy to discuss

    @therizz: Glad to be back, hope we will have a fun and profitable year together...

     

    Picks will follow within the next hours...YEEEEEAHA, the day is finally there....PLAY  !!!!!!!!!!!

     
    Blue_Chips
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    Posted: Mar. 31, 2011 - 5:22 AM ET #6

    Hey Call! Welcome back!

    Reply

    Hey Call! Welcome back!

     
    jay1234
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    Posted: Mar. 31, 2011 - 8:37 AM ET #7

    Reply
     
    Call82
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    Posted: Mar. 31, 2011 - 10:50 AM ET #8

    Here we go for today:

     

    ATL@WAS; Due to my numbers this game should be in the -150s so I go with 0.5 Units on ATL (@-134)

    MIL@CIN; With the posted lineups, CIN owns Gallardo, I have a line up in the -180s so I go with 0.5 Units on CIN here (@-112)

    SD@STL: Biggest game for me today, RL on STL @+127 with 1 Unit; see a score of 7-3...

     

    Good luck everyone!

    Reply

    Here we go for today:

     

    ATL@WAS; Due to my numbers this game should be in the -150s so I go with 0.5 Units on ATL (@-134)

    MIL@CIN; With the posted lineups, CIN owns Gallardo, I have a line up in the -180s so I go with 0.5 Units on CIN here (@-112)

    SD@STL: Biggest game for me today, RL on STL @+127 with 1 Unit; see a score of 7-3...

     

    Good luck everyone!

     
    Call82
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    Posted: Mar. 31, 2011 - 1:57 PM ET #9

    I have another two picks for today:

    MIL@CIN over 8 with even money, 0.5 Units

    and LAA
    Reply
    I have another two picks for today:

    MIL@CIN over 8 with even money, 0.5 Units

    and LAA
     
    EliudsinhoAA
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    Posted: Mar. 31, 2011 - 3:19 PM ET #10

    Quote Originally Posted by Call82:

    I have another two picks for today:

    MIL@CIN over 8 with even money, 0.5 Units

    and LAA

     

    LAA ML? .5 units? 

    Reply

    Quote Originally Posted by Call82:

    I have another two picks for today:

    MIL@CIN over 8 with even money, 0.5 Units

    and LAA

     

    LAA ML? .5 units? 

     
    Call82
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    Posted: Mar. 31, 2011 - 4:45 PM ET #11

    @ Eli, yes! Sorry for the short text, my little daughter just woke up (its evening over here in Germany) and I had to run upstairs...MIL@CIN over 8 was -110 instead of even but it doesnt matter since that one is in da bank by now (7th inning), ATL was a nice win as well...little suprised that the CIN bats dont show up....oh well, lets see what LAA and STL do for us...so far it looks to be a promising start of the season...
    Reply
    @ Eli, yes! Sorry for the short text, my little daughter just woke up (its evening over here in Germany) and I had to run upstairs...MIL@CIN over 8 was -110 instead of even but it doesnt matter since that one is in da bank by now (7th inning), ATL was a nice win as well...little suprised that the CIN bats dont show up....oh well, lets see what LAA and STL do for us...so far it looks to be a promising start of the season...
     
    Call82
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    Posted: Mar. 31, 2011 - 5:02 PM ET #12

    Another late night special

    0.5 Units on the SF Giants @+109 (all lines played at matchbook)
    Reply
    Another late night special

    0.5 Units on the SF Giants @+109 (all lines played at matchbook)
     
    ClubDirt
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    Posted: Mar. 31, 2011 - 5:15 PM ET #13

    are you going to be playing every or most games like this all season?
    Reply
    are you going to be playing every or most games like this all season?
     
    jay1234
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    Posted: Mar. 31, 2011 - 5:24 PM ET #14

    WALKOFF
    Reply
    WALKOFF
     
    Call82
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    Posted: Mar. 31, 2011 - 5:31 PM ET #15

    Hahaha, thats what I call a nice HR

    Guess how the 3rd base guy feels who tried to get him out but scewed it? OUCH!!!
    Reply
    Hahaha, thats what I call a nice HR

    Guess how the 3rd base guy feels who tried to get him out but scewed it? OUCH!!!
     
    Call82
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    Posted: Mar. 31, 2011 - 5:35 PM ET #16

    @CLUB: actually not, it depends on the stats avaiable and the line by the oddsmakers...there will be days where I see 10 good picks and there will be days where I only see 2 or 3....e.g., the DET-NYY game was right on my line, I had a fair line of 145 and that was pretty much the middle of the actual lines...obviously not worth a pick....
    Reply
    @CLUB: actually not, it depends on the stats avaiable and the line by the oddsmakers...there will be days where I see 10 good picks and there will be days where I only see 2 or 3....e.g., the DET-NYY game was right on my line, I had a fair line of 145 and that was pretty much the middle of the actual lines...obviously not worth a pick....
     
    ClubDirt
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    Posted: Mar. 31, 2011 - 5:55 PM ET #17

    Reply
     
    Call82
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    Posted: Apr. 1, 2011 - 5:21 AM ET #18

    OK Folks,

    during the last couple of years I have learned that recapping your picks is an important part of the learning process, so lets take a look at what we had:

    ATL: Looks like a solid win, they have never really been in a sot where I thought the game could change negatively.

    CIN: Lucky win, although the stats showed that the CIN bats should have scored 5-6 runs in the first 6 innings...they had the hits for it but didnt score that much, the over pick was solid though.

    LAA: Solid pick as well, the controlled the game, at least the time that I have watched.

    STL: I still think this was a solid pick. In the first 7 innings, they "outhitted (is that a real word? I hope you know what I am talking about anyway) SD by 10-2 but didnt get the runs in, I think we had loaded bases twice...I would pick it again anytime.

    SF: Pure valueplay, didnt see how you can (despite opening day home advantage) give us SF with Timmy for +money...I had them at -112....was a close game.

     

    Here are the stats for the young season:

    2011 Season

    Money Line:  3 - 1 ;  1,0 Units
    Run Line:      0 - 1 ; -1,0 Units
    Over/Under:   1 - 0 ;  0,5 Units

    Total:       4 - 2 ; 0,5 Units

     

    Todays picks will follow later...

    Reply

    OK Folks,

    during the last couple of years I have learned that recapping your picks is an important part of the learning process, so lets take a look at what we had:

    ATL: Looks like a solid win, they have never really been in a sot where I thought the game could change negatively.

    CIN: Lucky win, although the stats showed that the CIN bats should have scored 5-6 runs in the first 6 innings...they had the hits for it but didnt score that much, the over pick was solid though.

    LAA: Solid pick as well, the controlled the game, at least the time that I have watched.

    STL: I still think this was a solid pick. In the first 7 innings, they "outhitted (is that a real word? I hope you know what I am talking about anyway) SD by 10-2 but didnt get the runs in, I think we had loaded bases twice...I would pick it again anytime.

    SF: Pure valueplay, didnt see how you can (despite opening day home advantage) give us SF with Timmy for +money...I had them at -112....was a close game.

     

    Here are the stats for the young season:

    2011 Season

    Money Line:  3 - 1 ;  1,0 Units
    Run Line:      0 - 1 ; -1,0 Units
    Over/Under:   1 - 0 ;  0,5 Units

    Total:       4 - 2 ; 0,5 Units

     

    Todays picks will follow later...

     
    Call82
    Call82
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    Posted: Apr. 1, 2011 - 8:54 AM ET #19

    2011 Season

    Money Line:  3 - 1 ;  1,0 Units
    Run Line:      0 - 1 ; -1,0 Units
    Over/Under:   1 - 0 ;  0,5 Units

    Total:       4 - 2 ; 0,5 Units

     

    Picks for today:

    HOU@PHI; HOU +1.5 @+107 Matchbook 0.5 Units

    HOU@PHI Over 7 @+108 Matchbook 0.5 Units

    PIT@CHC PIT @+163 Matchbook 0.5 Units

    ARI@COL COL RL @+117 Matchbook 1 Unit

    CWS@CLE CWS @-101 Matchbook 0.5 Units

    BOS@TEX TEX @+112 Matchbook 0.5 Units

    BAL@TB BAL @+175 Matchbook 0.5 Units

    LAA@KC KC @+127 Matchbook 0.5 Units

     

    GL everyone

    Reply

    2011 Season

    Money Line:  3 - 1 ;  1,0 Units
    Run Line:      0 - 1 ; -1,0 Units
    Over/Under:   1 - 0 ;  0,5 Units

    Total:       4 - 2 ; 0,5 Units

     

    Picks for today:

    HOU@PHI; HOU +1.5 @+107 Matchbook 0.5 Units

    HOU@PHI Over 7 @+108 Matchbook 0.5 Units

    PIT@CHC PIT @+163 Matchbook 0.5 Units

    ARI@COL COL RL @+117 Matchbook 1 Unit

    CWS@CLE CWS @-101 Matchbook 0.5 Units

    BOS@TEX TEX @+112 Matchbook 0.5 Units

    BAL@TB BAL @+175 Matchbook 0.5 Units

    LAA@KC KC @+127 Matchbook 0.5 Units

     

    GL everyone

     
    Call82
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    Posted: Apr. 1, 2011 - 8:55 AM ET #20

    Oh, one more thing: I wont be around on the weekend, will be posting again on monday. Have a good and profitable weekend everyone!
    Reply
    Oh, one more thing: I wont be around on the weekend, will be posting again on monday. Have a good and profitable weekend everyone!
     
    scotth69
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    Posted: Apr. 1, 2011 - 10:40 AM ET #21

    Call

    Nice Start - the word is "outhit"  And yep, I was on St. Louis and thought the same thing with all those hits in the early innings.

    Reply

    Call

    Nice Start - the word is "outhit"  And yep, I was on St. Louis and thought the same thing with all those hits in the early innings.

     
    jay1234
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    Posted: Apr. 1, 2011 - 4:03 PM ET #22

    VERY GOOD START TODAY U DA MAN
    Reply
    VERY GOOD START TODAY U DA MAN
     
    Call82
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    Posted: Apr. 1, 2011 - 4:34 PM ET #23

    Yeah, looks promising so far 4-0 sounds good, doesnt it?
    Reply
    Yeah, looks promising so far 4-0 sounds good, doesnt it?
     
    jay1234
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    Posts: 489
    Posted: Apr. 1, 2011 - 6:56 PM ET #24

    WISH U WHERE AROUND ON WEEKENDS
    Reply
    WISH U WHERE AROUND ON WEEKENDS
     
     
    jay1234
    jay1234
    Prospect
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Nov, 2008
    Posts: 489
    Posted: Apr. 1, 2011 - 10:57 PM ET #25

     GREAT DAY 
    Reply
     GREAT DAY 
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