Saber Stunner

2011 Season

Money Line:  8 - 1 ;  4.39 Units
Run Line:    1 - 2 ; -1.47 Units
Over/Under:  2 - 0 ;  1.04 Units

Total:       12 - 6 ; 1.83 Units

Last Plays

Money Line:  1 - 2 ; -1.13 Units
Run Line:    0 - 1 ; -1.00 Units
Over/Under:  0 - 0 ;  0.00 Units

Total:       1 - 3 ; -2.13 Units

Hi Guys,

I realized an (unwelcome) pattern so far, the games I like the most (1 Unit plays) have gone all wrong, that costs some performance I have to admit. Today I will only have 0.5 Unit plays, but with the start of next week I will get into the regular mode - being 1 Unit plays as the minimum.

Todays plays:

COL@PIT; COL+105 for 0.5 Units - I have a line of -123 for them

NYM@PHI; NYM +189 for 0.5 Units - numbers say, this should be a close one...

WAS@FLA ; FLA RL +130 for 0.5 Units - numbers show me a score in the 5-2 or 5-3 area....

BOS@CLE; BOS RL +101 for 0.5 Units - situational pick, not only counting on the numbers...Carmona sucks (I am Cleveland fan, sorry for that), BOS is overdue and the numbers have BOS at -180...dont want to overpay here...

OAK@TOR; OAK +114 - I have OAK at -109

Thats it Gentlemen, lets get some money back...

Ok, forgot two picks:

TB@CWS; CWS-109; BE AWARE: This one would be my pick of the day, I have a line of -155 in here...would usually play 1 Unit here...BE AWARE, these picks sucked so far :-) I will make it a 0.5 Unit play, then it should work

OAK/TOR Under 8 @-107; I see around 6 runs in here...

 

GL everyone

Updated record as of Thursday:

2011 Season

Money Line:  9 - 3 ;  3.26 Units
Run Line:    1 - 3 ; -2.47 Units
Over/Under:  2 - 0 ;  1.04 Units

Total:       12 - 6 ; 1.83 Units

Last Plays

Money Line:  1 - 2 ; -1.13 Units
Run Line:    0 - 1 ; -1.00 Units
Over/Under:  0 - 0 ;  0.00 Units

Total:       1 - 3 ; -2.13 Units

Hey bud, good to see you back and good picks as well. A couple of surprise selections in there though! Good luck for today. I'm just going to follow your progress for now w/o putting any money down (no offence). Just still want to see how this works out.

2011 Season

Money Line:  12 - 4 ; 4.355 Units
Run Line:    1 - 5 ; -3.47 Units
Over/Under:  3 - 0 ;  1.54 Units

Total:       12 - 6 ; 2.425 Units

Yesterdays Plays

Money Line:  3 - 1 ;  1.095 Units
Run Line:    0 - 2 ; -1.00 Units
Over/Under:  1 - 0 ;  0.50 Units

Total:       4 - 3 ;  0.595 Units

Yesterday was ok in total, we had our next day in the black (thats 3/4 winning days now) and I am happy with the results...

 

Todays plays will follow later!

@Keano: no worries, I didnt tell anyone to follow my picks, I am just posting here to document my learning process and to discuss my picks with other people interested in this matter....

2011 Season

Money Line:  12 - 4 ; 4.355 Units
Run Line:    1 - 5 ; -3.47 Units
Over/Under:  3 - 0 ;  1.54 Units

Total:       16 - 9 ; 2.425 Units

Yesterdays Plays

Money Line:  3 - 1 ;  1.095 Units
Run Line:    0 - 2 ; -1.00 Units
Over/Under:  1 - 0 ;  0.50 Units

Total:       4 - 3 ;  0.595 Units

 

My total of the season was wrong again, I will learn this as well (I hope)...

Damn, covers is a B.I.T.C.H. today, third time I try to post my plays now...all picks for 0.5 Units and @ Matchbook

NYY +120; I have a line of -117 for the Stankees, taking the Home Opener into account, I think a +100 coinflip seems to be fair...

OAK +105...I have -118, Pitching works well so far...

COL -120...same missmatch as yesterday, I come up with a -178

HOU +109...again, a slight favorite with +money...I have -113...

PHI -102...Cliff Lee at almost even money...do I have to say more? No matter who you play, ITS a play...fyi, I have -127 here

SF (RL) +144...Sanchez in the Home Opener versus a STL team that sucks AND with Westbrook (ex, Cleveland, I know what I am talking about) on the mound...

NYM -138...highest juice so far in the season, but I am just too afraid to take the RL here...I have -186 for this matchup...

 

Good luck everyone

Thanks for all of the hard work.  GL.

PHI Cliff Lee

Ouch! 

Wow, it was a tough day, wont be able to calc the games for today, should be back by wed for the games...job is killing me right now, sorry guys...

2011 Season

Money Line:  12 - 10 ; 1.255 Units
Run Line:    1 - 6 ; -3.97 Units
Over/Under:  3 - 0 ;  1.54 Units

Total:       16 - 16 ; -1.175 Units

Last Plays

Money Line:  0 - 6 ; -3.10 Units
Run Line:    0 - 1 ; -0.50 Units
Over/Under:  0 - 0 ;  0.00 Units

Total:       0 - 7 ; -3.6 Units

 

Tough day last friday...

Unfortunately, I dont find the ime right now to analyse and post plays on a regular basis...but I try my best to turn things around now...here are the picks for today:

COL +113

FLO@ATL U7 -108

OAK +107

TEX +124

TOR -105

 

Good Luck everybody

2011 Season

Money Line:  15 - 11 ; 2.355 Units
Run Line:    1 - 6 ; -3.97 Units
Over/Under:  4 - 0 ;  2.04 Units

Total:       20 - 17 ;  0.425 Units

Yesterdays Plays

Money Line:  3 - 1 ;  1.10 Units
Run Line:    0 - 0 ;  0.00 Units
Over/Under:  1 - 0 ;  0.50 Units

Total:       4 - 1 ;  1.6 Units

I hope I am back on track after that bad friday last week, now with a solid 4-1 and a little luck with OAK in the 9th and 10th inning...

Todays plays will follow later!

Today I dont have that many picks as a) some games dont have enough data and b) some games are just too close to the line...so here we go:

MIL@PIT I go with PIT and +104 at Matchbook for 0.5 Units...numbers give me a score of 4.77(PIT) to 3.96(MIL) which translates into a line of ~139

PHI@WAS Here I will take PHI for the first 5 Innings and/or Team Total over, both lines are not available yet, so I will post this play later, numbers just show me that PHI should score around 5.7 runs in the first 5 Innings...pick will depend on the lines though

BAL@NYY This should actually be a close game, I have it around 5.5(NYY) to 4.8(BAL) which gives NYY a 56,13% chance to win this game...this win% translates into a line of -128 for NYY...real line is much higher, so I take BAL with +182 at matchbook.

MIN/TB Over 9, neither line nor actual number is out yet, I have a final score of ~ 5.7-4.4 in this one, so I will go with the over up to 9.5...again, this pick will be final later on as the lines are available...

 

Good Luck everyone

PS: Next week my testing phase will be over, I will then settle up with my original Unit plays which is scaled from 1-4...

Here are the detailed plays outstanding:

PHI@WAS First 5 Innings PHI-0.5 -105 0.5 Units as well as

PHI Team Total Over 4 -110 for 0.5 Units and

MIN@TB Over 8.5 +104 at Matchbook

 

Good Luck Everyone

I was wondering if there are people around that are willing to discuss sabermetrics in here...I would love to discuss and learn, would be great to get some feedback on this...

I was wondering if there are people around that are willing to discuss sabermetrics in here...I would love to discuss and learn, would be great to get some feedback on this...

Hey Guys,

will update my record later, here are my picks for today really quick:

ATL -123

COL +119

TOR +122

CWS +128

KC +109

LAA +142

All for 0.5 Units and @ Matchbook

 

GL everyone

been there before losing every game in one night