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Vegas vs KenPom Week 3 Pt II

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Posted: #1
The basis is simple.  If there is a "large" difference between the opening line and the fanmatch line on kenpom.com, I will side with Vegas.

System rules:

If the line is between 0 and 4, a large difference is 2 points.
4.5 to 12, a large difference is 3 points.
12.5 to 16, a large difference is 4 points.
16.5 and up, a large difference is 5 points.

One note:  I will not be wagering on the teams that have over 65% of the bets according to covers contests.

YTD Record

For the night: 2-0 (100%)

For the week: 10-7 (59%)

For the year: 58-42 (58%)


In depth stats:

Home Teams: 24-18 (57%)
Road Teams: 18-9 (67%)

Favorites: 31-26 (55%)
Dogs:      27-16 (63%)

Line moved toward KP:  39-31 (56%)
Line moved away KP:  16-3 (82%)

 
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Posted: #2
Official Friday Plays:

UMass -13 (Home, Fave, Toward)
Fairfield -2.5 (Neutral, Fave, Away)

Should've locked in Fairfield last night...we lost a couple points of value, but I still like it!
 
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Posted: #3
Saturday Possibilities:

URI +7..........kp has 12 right now
UNLV +8.5.......kp has 12
Pitt -10.............kp has -3
Toledo -3..........kp has +1
Kansas +1.5....kp has +4
Harvard -7.......kp has -4
Hofstra -5.5......kp has -2
Indi +3.5.........kp has +6
ArkLR +6.5.....kp has +11
USC +2..........kp has +4
SDak +4........kp has +6
WKy +5.5.......kp has +9
TXAM -24.5.....kp has -18
SEMOSt -5.5....kp has -2
Gonzaga -3.5.....kp has -1
Pacific +8.........kp has +11
Ohio -6.........kp has -2

Keep an eye on these lines.  Please let me know if you see one of them starting to move away from KenPom.  Which means, if the favorites get higher or the dogs get lower we need to jump on them tonight!
 
Prospect
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Posted: #4
Got a big day in front of us tomorrow beaver. I like it 
 
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Posted: #5
What is it now Building u and Beaver vs the world? Since i annoy you i will follow u here, as u have done ur best to annoy me.... 
Now is the time where you say something slick again. 
 
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Posted: #6
Actually, that is unfair to Beaver... i lay down my typing. Gambling only and good luck to u Beaver. You put too much effort into this 2 have it be a tabloid. I will not participate in it any more. 
 
Captain
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Posted: #7

Been using this system for years...Great results so far...It doesn't get the results as the season goes on. 

Beaver-Good job posting.  All the other stuff can exit stage right.  It just clutters the chance to get a higher bankroll. 

 
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Posted: #8
Beaver - no worries here, I already addressed Mega in my own personal thread. I am keeping all the nonsense out of yours. Positive vibes only in this one. No more of me even referencing that tool.
 
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Posted: #9
Quote Originally Posted by Megatron27:

Actually, that is unfair to Beaver... i lay down my typing. Gambling only and good luck to u Beaver. You put too much effort into this 2 have it be a tabloid. I will not participate in it any more. 

Thank you

Put your effort from beaking one another into capping and maybe we can all make some 
 
Prospect
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Posted: #10
Beaver, if you will how would you answer this?

f the line is between 0 and 4, a large difference is 2 points.
4.5 to 12, a large difference is 3 points.
12.5 to 16, a large difference is 4 points.
16.5 and up, a large difference is 5 points.

so in the 0-4 its 2pts, which is 50% of the total spread
4.5 to 12 is a gap of 7pts, and the difference is 3
12.5 to 16 is only a gap of 3.5 and the diff is 4
16.5 and up is gap of 5....
From a math perspectiive its seems that the 2nd group has a larger range than the other groups.  Do you see what i mean on this? Is there an angle or reason why you choose that format from say a flat 
0-4
5-9
10-14 ect?



 
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Posted: #11
Building, u referenced me again, get me out of ur mind. I wouldnt even think to waste my energy posting about you prior to ur rants... yet you are infatuated with me. I get you though.... its ok.
 
Prospect
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Posted: #12
Another angle, 
do we assume that the greater the difference in Knpom and Vegas the more we like the play? It might be annoying but tracking spread differences and success rates my be another good barometer to add..
 
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Posted: #13
Good question...

Last year when I first started this I was just going to use a standard 3 point difference.  I found that none of the games with low lines ever had a 3 point difference while way too many games with larger lines (13 and up) had a 3 point difference.

The numbers that I chose have no statistical backing and I think this could be a good place to make this system better.  The only problem is that finding the optimal numbers would be extremely time consuming.

If you want to track the system with some alternate numbers I am totally fine with that
 
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Posted: #14
Quote Originally Posted by Megatron27:

Another angle, 
do we assume that the greater the difference in Knpom and Vegas the more we like the play? It might be annoying but tracking spread differences and success rates my be another good barometer to add..


Another good point, and I don't know the answer to that one either.
I like where your head is at...just no more telling me to fuck myself eh?
 
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Posted: #15
Beaver, i already apoligized to u for that. Your right you dont have or should not have to Joe Paterno me but i didnt like the talking heads telling me i am fucking with your thread and you.  I dont think you believe that for a second. I always said this idea is urs and i am along for the ride.

 
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Posted: #16
Quote Originally Posted by beaverfan23:



Another good point, and I don't know the answer to that one either.
I like where your head is at...just no more telling me to fuck myself eh?

Agreed both are very valiant points that Mega has brought up. Would be interesting to see the data and results once backtracked.
 
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Posted: #17
I follow you what you are saying.  I am going to try and come up with an alternate line system that provides (in theory) more consistent math.  
I will also try and track are larger difference games. Now if i remember correctly, For example, 2morro we have ohio -6, and kp -2, that is massive difference based upon our criteria. Lets see where plays like that go and see if we can create another 80% angle. 
 
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Posted: #18
This is getting old and annoying
 
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Posted: #19
I swear to god i cant take the name calling anymore, but building u trashed me for 4 pages that i am stealing beavers work. Now you are throwing me a prop for the same input. And it was either you or moose who made fun of me for spelling (valiant).  So whats this a truce? If so fine, all i want to gamble and win. name calling on a message board is lame.
 
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Posted: #20
Saturday Line moves update:

URI +7..........kp has 12 right now
UNLV +8.5.......kp has 12
Pitt -10.............kp has -3
Toledo -3..........kp has +1 up to 3.5
Kansas +1.5....kp has +4
Harvard -7.......kp has -4
Hofstra -5.5......kp has -2
Indi +3.5.........kp has +6
ArkLR +6.5.....kp has +11
USC +2..........kp has +4
SDak +4........kp has +6
WKy +5.5.......kp has +9
TXAM -24.5.....kp has -18
SEMOSt -5.5....kp has -2
Gonzaga -3.5.....kp has -1
Pacific +8.........kp has +11
Ohio -6.........kp has -2

All the black numbers have moved toward KP.  The red numbers have not moved from their opening number (gonzaga went up to 4 then back to 3.5).  The blue one (Toledo) has moved to 3.5 which is farther away from KP. 

Continue to monitor these so that we can get the best value possible for tomorrows games.
 
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Posted: #21
So Kp has toledo at plus 1, vegas minus 3 and counting. That is a massive difference. We could also say the same for the ohio game too, yes?
 
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Posted: #22
Quote Originally Posted by Megatron27:

I swear to god i cant take the name calling anymore, but building u trashed me for 4 pages that i am stealing beavers work. Now you are throwing me a prop for the same input. And it was either you or moose who made fun of me for spelling (valiant).  So whats this a truce? If so fine, all i want to gamble and win. name calling on a message board is lame.


Dude, I think they are over it.  You should be too.  He is just acknowledging that you brought up two very good points that could help us all.  I'm heading out for the night but lets work on a way to find the best possible "large difference" criteria. 
 
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Posted: #23
Thinking out loud, math people chime in
If 0-4 we look for 2pts then that 2pts is 50% difference of total spread?
Shouldnt we also seek that in say a 5-9pt range. Meaning instead of 3 maybe 4? Since 4 is closer to 50% of 9 than 3? And then shouldnt this pattern continue? Thoughts anyone....

Beaver, i will try and track the difference is in spreads not by the flat difference 6 vs 2 is 4, but by % difference. I think that makes more sense. Again thoughts?
 
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Posted: #24
I agree with u fully Beaver. Go out and have have a good night and hopefully come home a few bux richer. 
 
 
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Posted: #25
Gordon, could you elaborate on your exp with KenPom and y u say that?
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