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Vegas vs KenPom Week 3 Pt II

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Posted: #26
thanks beaver. i really appreciate your system and the patience you demonstrate within your thread. good luck!
 
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Posted: #27
Megatron, could you please stop hijacking this thread. People want to come into his thread and see what Beaver is picking, not have to scroll thru all your posts asking a million questions and trying to see you design your own system.
Start your own thread, where you can ask Beaver all the questions you want, just please leave it out of this pick thread.
I had to scroll thru like 20 of your posts in the other thread just to find todays plays.
If you are a true gambler, you would understand this, thanks
cd
 
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Posted: #28
cd329,

The last thread got out of hand, everyone knows that.  Megatron is done bitching and now just trying to help this system by backtracking and looking for trends...there is nothing wrong with that.
 
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Posted: #29
I get u CD. Try to understand that we are looking at Beavers idea as a work in progress, maybe we can turn 60 into 70% and if that can be done then hello $.
I never wanted that useless banter and sorry u had to read that crap.

TY Beaver for ur input, but i think u are going out 2nite so go get laid. 
 
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Posted: #30
Quote Originally Posted by beaverfan23:

Good question...

Last year when I first started this I was just going to use a standard 3 point difference.  I found that none of the games with low lines ever had a 3 point difference while way too many games with larger lines (13 and up) had a 3 point difference.

The numbers that I chose have no statistical backing and I think this could be a good place to make this system better.  The only problem is that finding the optimal numbers would be extremely time consuming.

If you want to track the system with some alternate numbers I am totally fine with that

Beaver this is where I think the spreadsheets could help. I just need to know the specifics of how this works.
 
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Posted: #31

Beaver, this is the first time I have seen one of your threads.  I'm on the site a bit, but don't chime in a whole lot.  Just to clarify how you go about this, you are basically saying that the shittier the line (since you side with vegas) compared to kp, the better for us?  And when that line gets even shittier from where it started, the higher success rate?

 

 
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Posted: #32
Jeast, u r correct.. say hofstra is minis 6 vegas, but minus 2 ken.
we assume that vegas makes better lines than ken and go with with vegas. does that make sense. 
 
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Posted: #33
Beaver, (Warning this is not system data)
I spent some time looking at your opening lines.   I think a good question to ask is do we go by the opening line of betonline, or the next line which is is often a 2pt jump.  My thinking is that perhaps the opening line is a weak line and sharps are all over that. For example RI opened at plus 7, but was instantly bet to plus 9.5. Which in that case seemingly adds value to us. Unless RI was a weak line to start.  The same can be said with Pitt who was at minus 10 and quickly dropped to 6.5.  However, in that case what about a buy down to 6 or 5 to get value?
If we go by opening lines the teams with the greatest difference in spreads are (not in order) URI, Pitt, Toledo, Ark litt rock, Gonz and ohio. It will be interesting to see how those games play out..  
Other readers please feel free to add to this.  
 
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Posted: #34
im seeing Toledo -5 on scores and odds.com.....

Think Im gonna pounce
 
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Posted: #35
The line moving away from pitt toward KP and away from ind toward KP fall into the high % category.  I assume sharp money is driving Pitt down but i think Public money is driving Ind up.  If that logic is correct then Ind should be a great play. However, i also think that the pitt line has been bet down to a point where we can jump in.
Good night forum.
 
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Posted: #36
Mega - not a fan of buying points. Makes our required win % to turn profit increase significantly. Other statements are interesting and something to look at for sure.
 
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Posted: #37
Fairfield came in with another strong win tonight. Sucks UMass started slow but only losing juice with the big day coming tomorrow. Lets stack the cash tomorrow beaver.
 
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Posted: #38
Quote Originally Posted by Megatron27:

Beaver, (Warning this is not system data)
I spent some time looking at your opening lines.   I think a good question to ask is do we go by the opening line of betonline, or the next line which is is often a 2pt jump.  My thinking is that perhaps the opening line is a weak line and sharps are all over that. For example RI opened at plus 7, but was instantly bet to plus 9.5. Which in that case seemingly adds value to us. Unless RI was a weak line to start.  The same can be said with Pitt who was at minus 10 and quickly dropped to 6.5.  However, in that case what about a buy down to 6 or 5 to get value?
If we go by opening lines the teams with the greatest difference in spreads are (not in order) URI, Pitt, Toledo, Ark litt rock, Gonz and ohio. It will be interesting to see how those games play out..  
Other readers please feel free to add to this.  


Like building bank, I am not a fan of buying points and will not be doing it.  I bet through a local and I don't think I can do it through him anyways.

Using the betonline opening line has been working pretty well, but if you can prove that ignoring their opening line and using the next one will be more profitable, then I will surely jump on board.  Proof would have to come from backtracking this season (it will take countless hours to do), or tracking future games (we wont have an answer for at least a couple of weeks).
 
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Posted: #39
Quote Originally Posted by Megatron27:

The line moving away from pitt toward KP and away from ind toward KP fall into the high % category.  I assume sharp money is driving Pitt down but i think Public money is driving Ind up.  If that logic is correct then Ind should be a great play. However, i also think that the pitt line has been bet down to a point where we can jump in.
Good night forum.


I'm not understanding this post mega.  In both the Pitt and Indiana games the line is moving toward KP...not away from it.
 
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Posted: #40
Quote Originally Posted by FFCJ82:


Beaver this is where I think the spreadsheets could help. I just need to know the specifics of how this works.


Sent you a message
 
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Posted: #41
megatron,

PM me for thoughts on the backtracking and what not. 
 
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Posted: #42
YTD Record

For the night: 1-1 (50%)

For the week: 11-8 (58%)

For the year: 59-43 (58%)


In depth stats:

Home Teams: 24-19 (56%)
Road Teams: 18-9 (67%)

Favorites: 32-27 (54%)
Dogs:      27-16 (63%)

Line moved toward KP:  39-32 (55%)
Line moved away KP:  17-3 (85%)
 
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Posted: #43
@Megatron - you are polluting this thread....

You are adding nothing and making this thread difficult to follow the "STUFF" that actually matters...

Please Stop...

Thanks
 
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Posted: #44
Beaver and Building,
I will message u with other data as i get it
Yes Beaver u r right its allot of leg work at that point
 
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Posted: #45
? for the board.. the toledo game spread is flying on 1 way action.
Any1 know this mac conferene?
 
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Posted: #46
Quote Originally Posted by Megatron27:

? for the board.. the toledo game spread is flying on 1 way action.
Any1 know this mac conferene?

How bout this...

DO THE RESEARCH YOURSELF ON THE MAC
 
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Posted: #47
Quote Originally Posted by beatthelocal:


How bout this...

DO THE RESEARCH YOURSELF ON THE MAC

Really? You're gonna tell this guy not to junk up the thread then talk shit to him and junk it up yourself? This guy is just trying to get info to help us all. Why don't you little girls play nice and keep your opinions and comments to yourselves? It's like a bunch of women on here, shit! Stay to the point which is the system and plays.....
 
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Posted: #48
Quote Originally Posted by beatthelocal:


How bout this...

DO THE RESEARCH YOURSELF ON THE MAC

not helpful at all and a waste of a post, gotta ignore posts like this. it will distract you guys from making the system as efficient as possible.

anyway. i dont know much about toledo bball but seems like there is a lot of positive vibes up in northern ohio which could translate into good team chemistry and a solid win and cover today from reading this article:
 
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Posted: #49
Quote Originally Posted by FFCJ82:


Really? You're gonna tell this guy not to junk up the thread then talk shit to him and junk it up yourself? This guy is just trying to get info to help us all. Why don't you little girls play nice and keep your opinions and comments to yourselves? It's like a bunch of women on here, shit! Stay to the point which is the system and plays.....

Dude, how about this, look at all the work Beav has done and look at the posts from Mega....just clogs it up...

Nevermind
 
 
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Posted: #50
Thanks FFC and MyChop for the input. The system is a a great idea and a great tool. But its raw, Beaver would say this too. If there is a way we can make it sharper then were all in. And it will take peoples questions and opinions to get there. 
Like the Toledo article. good luck 2day every1
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