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Vegas vs KenPom Week 3 Pt II

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Posted: #76
Quote Originally Posted by beaverfan23:

Official Saturday Plays:

URI +11.5 (Road, Dog, Toward)
UNLV +9.5 (Road, Dog, Toward)
Hofstra -2.5 (Home, Fave, Toward)
Indiana +5 (Home, Dog, Toward)
Ark LR +9.5 (Home, Dog, Toward)
USC +1.5 (Home, Dog, Away)
SDak +6.5 (Road, Dog, Toward)
WKy +6.5* (Road, Dog, Toward)
TXAM -20* (Home, Fave, Toward)
SeMoSt -3.5* (Home, Fave, Toward)
Gonz -4 (Home, Fave, Away)
Pacific +10.5 (Road, Dog, Toward)
Ohio -4.5 (Road, Fave, Toward)

13 Plays - Those with the *** are close to going over 65% public plays.  If they go over they will be taken off the card, keep an eye on them.

BOL to everyone today




Beaver,

USC and Gonzaga away? I dont see these lines moving at all.WOuld they fall under the 80% plays?
 
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Posted: #77
I was just look at this.  the USC line has moved the other way....toward KP, it is now +2.5.

Gonzaga, as of right now, is an away movement play.  Opened at 3.5 and has since moved to 4.
 
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Posted: #78
thanks
 
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Posted: #79
2-3 after ArkLR squeeks it out.  USC looks like shit.
 
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Posted: #80
I'm loving your South Dakota       
 
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Posted: #81
2 more close losses with USC and WKy.

3-5 with 5 games left.  SemoSt is down big.

7-6 or even 6-7 would be great
 
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Posted: #82
I dont know where this arguement started but lets avoid them... Beaver wants it just for sports talk. Bobcat u are right although Toledo was on the original card they were eliminated because big public fav.

Anyhow, we are not looking so hot 2day on the system, but so what it is only 1 day and u cant win the all.
 
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Posted: #83
Tough day, tough losses, i really like USC and to come all the way back and lose so close.
 
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Posted: #84
Absolute melt down by Pacific...we are looking at a 4-9 day.  On to the next one!

Looking over Sunday games now
 
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Posted: #85
The only potential play I am seeing for tomorrow is:

Marshall -2

Will check again in the morning
 
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Posted: #86
YTD Record

For the night: 5-8 (38%)

For the week: 16-16 (50%)

For the year: 64-51 (56%)


In depth stats:

Home Teams: 26-24 (52%)
Road Teams: 21-12 (67%)

Favorites: 33-31 (52%)
Dogs:      31-20(64%)

Line moved toward KP:  44-39 (53%)
Line moved away KP:  17-4 (81%)
 
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Posted: #87
If it means anything both Nropp and Purdue pride are on Marshal too. 
 
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Posted: #88

Guys, I appreciate everything that you are doing and all the hard work. My opinion is that you are on to something big but need to modify the bets and you won't have 4-9 days. I would keep tracking everything for the system but the only bets would be to stay disciplined and taking.

Line moved away KP:  17-4 (81%)

I'm not sure how many of these are home or favs but the numbers are trending dogs and away.  I hope this make sense and I'm last person to try and tell someone to be disciplined

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Posted: #89
Official Sunday Play:

Marshall +1 (Home, Fave, Toward)   Marked as a fave since they opened -2.

Need to get this one to get over 50% for the week, will be a losing week either way.  Rough saturday killed me.
 
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Posted: #90
Don't put too much stock into that bad day...that was the first day we have lost more than just the juice in over a week.   Everyone is allowed a blood bath from time to time.  Many of the game came down to the final possession and we were just a little unlucky.

Lets go Herd!
 
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Posted: #91

I'm putting a lot of stock in a bad day. We all have bad days but betting 13 games is a lot in my opinion. Obviously, 17-4 and 81% clip is huge. So I was curious according to the numbers how many of that 17-4 record was home team or fav?

home teams are 52%

favorites 52%

road teams and dogs are hitting at a much higher clip 60%+

of that small sample size of 21 games I was wondering if the numbers moving away from KP gives us a stronger %. I hope this make sense.

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Posted: #92
Quote Originally Posted by Lastmushstandin:

I'm putting a lot of stock in a bad day. We all have bad days but betting 13 games is a lot in my opinion. Obviously, 17-4 and 81% clip is huge. So I was curious according to the numbers how many of that 17-4 record was home team or fav?

home teams are 52%

favorites 52%

road teams and dogs are hitting at a much higher clip 60%+

of that small sample size of 21 games I was wondering if the numbers moving away from KP gives us a stronger %. I hope this make sense.



Stopped reading right there
 
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Posted: #93
Ha agreed beaver. Let's get Marshall today.
 
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Posted: #94
meant to say NOT putting
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Posted: #95
if you read the rest you would've understood it was a mistake.   That's what's wrong with this site. you had enough time to put it in red but not enought ime to read the rest. continue to bet 30 games a day and you won't be posting anymore smartass
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Posted: #96
Quote Originally Posted by Lastmushstandin:

if you read the rest you would've understood it was a mistake.   That's what's wrong with this site. you had enough time to put it in red but not enought ime to read the rest. continue to bet 30 games a day and you won't be posting anymore smartass


My fault for jumping to conclusions.  Yes, of the 21 games in which the line has moved away from KP, 17 of them have won.  Every other statistic was also profitable until yesterday.  The line moving away has by far been the best bet though.  Many of the people who have been following the thread have been giving me input on ideas to improve the system...it is a work in progress.  Any input that you might have is appreciated.

Again, my apologies for jumping to conclusions and being a dick
 
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Posted: #97
road dogs too

 
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Posted: #98
Thank u for being stand up beav. I was wondering out of the 21 games that moved away what was the number of favorites or home teams?

I was trying to look at the numbers that are hitting at 81.

In your system home and favorites are by far hitting at a lower percentage soi was just curious how the number correlate against moving away from kemp ton . Thanks again for all your hard work


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Posted: #99
YTD Record

For the night: 1-0 (100%)

For the week: 17-16 (52%)

For the year: 65-51 (56%)


In depth stats:

Home Teams: 27-24 (53%)
Road Teams: 21-12 (67%)

Favorites: 34-31 (52%)
Dogs:      31-20(64%)

Line moved toward KP:  45-39 (54%)
Line moved away KP:  17-4 (81%)

Will be a new thread for Monday Plays.
 
 
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Posted: #100
Quote Originally Posted by Lastmushstandin:

Thank u for being stand up beav. I was wondering out of the 21 games that moved away what was the number of favorites or home teams?

I was trying to look at the numbers that are hitting at 81.

In your system home and favorites are by far hitting at a lower percentage soi was just curious how the number correlate against moving away from kemp ton . Thanks again for all your hard work




I dont know the stats on that question.  Sorry mate
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