Bowl Thread 2007....

This is my annual stab at the bowl games. My games will all be between 1 and 4 units. Most will be 1 and 2 units. I try to give a writeup, but it is just a summary of a lot of statistical and non-statistical handicapping angles. I had a rough regular NCAAF season, so hoping to turn it around here. Bowl games usually provide some unique handicapping angles that don’t apply during the regular season.


GL all

Utah -8 vs Navy – Utah -8 for 2.5 units….
Utah comes in to this game after a tough loss at BYU on some late heroics by BYU, but won 8 of the 9 games before that. Navy also has a nice streak coming in to the bowl game winning their last 5. The difference in this game boils down to one thing – the Navy defense and their inability to stop anyone (except army). Utah sometimes struggles to put up points but should expect to score every time they touch the ball against Navy. I also feel like the extra 3 weeks of preparation will help neutralize the Navy rushing attack, and that Utah will be lined up and ready for the triple option that most teams only have 5 days to prepare for. Big size and class difference here for Utah, my only concern is motivation, but my numbers have Utah at a 13.5 point favorite.

FAU -2.5 vs Memphis – Memphis +2.5 for 1 unit
Not much different between these two teams. Will take a small lean with the points with a slightly better offense in Memphis, in a slightly better conference and a conference that scores a ton of points. This should be a close, very high scoring game, but I see no reason FAU should be favored. Very small play on Memphis +.

Cincy -10.5 vs SMiss – Cincy -10.5 for 1 unit
I realize this is a very public play, but if Cincy shows up with any kind of motivation they should kill this team. Class mismatch on both sides of the ball. The key to this game is that SMiss has to run the ball in order to be competitive, but unfortunately they are going up against a cincy rushing D ranked 15th in the country. I just don’t see SMiss staying close in this one – unless Cincy just doesn’t show up.

NM -3 vs Nevada – NM -3 for 2 units….
Have to go with the home side here. NM is playing on their home turf, where they were 5-1 this year with their only loss being a close one to BYU. Im hanging my hat on the NM defense in this one – and betting that Nevada and their great but inexperienced and mistake prone freshman QB will have problems. Nevada has one of the worst net punting averages in NCAAF, averaging only 31 yds per punt – hidden yards that add up. NM has struggled to score on occasion but should be able to work the Nevada defense for good yardage.

BYU -6 vs UCLA - BYU -6 for 3 units….
This is a great spot. No – this is a perfect spot. This is blowout city. BYU comes in on a 9 game winning streak, while UCLA limps in with coaching issues and losing 4 out of their last 5. This is a rematch, and I bet the first game in Sept and was very lucky to win with a late UCLA TD to cover the spread. What a difference 3 months makes. UCLA is in shambles, BYU has only gotten better. Revenge game for BYU – BYU fans always make the trip to Las Vegas – it will be a big pro-cougar crowd – and BYU just rolls over a UCLA team that would rather stay home and not make the trip. BYU has the stats, the motivation, the edge all over the field.

Boise St -10 (pinny) vs ECU - Boise -10 for 1 unit…
I realize I am racking up the chalk in the early games, and Im not putting a lot on this one, but simply put I cant come up with a reason that this game will be close. If they both show up, and Boise isn’t in this one for the trip to Hawaii, then I think they roll ECU. CUSA is a big fade conference in these bowls, they have a lot of bad teams and Im not willing to back many of them. Not much to say other than this is a mismatch.

Aside from UNR's woes punting the football, when they kickoff their coverage team can't stop shit either. This is truly one of the worst collective ST units in the nation. They are flat-out miserable.

Look at the difference between FAU and Memphis' schedules.  You might change your mind.  They lost to Ok State, La Monroe, and 3 ranked bowl teams. Memphis played absolutely nobody.  That should be the difference imo.

Doesn't change the fact Memphis has been in this setting before and will know how to handle it (and is interested in winning, not just playing), as opposed to suddenly sneaking into this game after being a bottom-feeder their first few years in I-A and pulling off an astonishing upset as 16-point dogs to win the conference.  New experience for a young FAU team, just like it was for Rice last year.

There is a reason FAU is favored in this game

Wish you the best.

FAU/Memphis could go either way.  Probably the biggest reason i am not going to be on the Tigers is Tommy West.  In two previous games this year against SBC teams they got shut-out after halftime.  That is a little bit worrying that there aren't any coaching adjustments being made.  Howard S. might very well be the Owl's biggest edge in this game.

Good Luck Van.  I made some nice change last year tailing you picks.  Will Lou Holtz be calling any of your games.  Lou seems to bring out the best in you!