NBA Totals - Tuesday 3-6-12

YTD (Overall): 44-27 / 62.0% (+33.6)

4 Unit Bets: (3-0)

3 Unit Bets: (2-1)

2 Unit Bets: (14-5)

1 Unit Bets: (25-21)

Yesterday's Thread: https://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=22&sub=101288253

Today's Lines / Mine (Actual):

Charlotte vs. Orlando - 188.7 (188.0)

Indiana vs. Atlanta - 182.9 (NL)

Boston vs. Houston - 185.8 (189.0)

Miami vs. New Jersey - 193.2 (NL)

Detroit vs. LA Lakers - 191.4 (186.5)

Dallas vs. New York - 185.5 (191.5)

The Mavs/Knicks game is sitting right at a 6.0 variance; I'm going to wait and see what kind of movement we get on that game before making it a play (or not). I really hope that Pistons/Lakers game goes down from where it's at currently (186.5) because I love the over there and would like to consider it a system play.

going to play the lal over! 

2 of the 3 refs for Dallas game belongs to the top 9 refs with OVER bias.

I do think the ref angle should be considered, but I also think it is overrated.  Line is already increasing on DAL-NYK game, could be a play as it approaches 195.  Not sure what will happen with LAL-Det, line may increase not decrease.

GL man.

As far as refs are concerned, I do incorporate their average total PPG, but it plays a very small part of it. Other than that Tony Brothers angle, I don't think it's good to put TOO much thought into trends, whether it be O/U or ATS. As I said, my lines that I put out already incorporate the ref numbers. I do NOT just average their total points on average with the teams; the ref numbers make up probably 5% of the final line I put out.

The Indiana/Atlanta & Miami/New Jersey lines are out. I had estimated 182.9 for Indiana/Atlanta and the line put out is 183.0, a difference of 0.1. The Miami/NJ line came out at 195.5 as opposed to me guess of 193.2, a difference of 2.3 points. These will be no plays for me.

thanks for your insight.   good luck! 

r "the totals mastermind" lawson

nice day yesterday (2-1 +4units) ...heck been a nice past few days...in fact damn nice season since you've been posting my friend.

i don't have to say it everyday but I am always looking for your post. now a lot more are catching on and noticing your posts.

i love how you lock in your bet and then the line always moves against you. kinda funny, but i guess it doesn't matter because they're always winners in those cases anyways lol.

your doing great and thanks for crunching the numbers and doing all the hard work. great info and insight. wish you continued sucess mate.

good luck tonight. and you know i'll be in here again tomorrow lol.

Shiiiit...  I look forward to both your posts in this thread; R Lawson and yours just so I can see that bangin broad. 

Looking forward to your play/plays tonight! Good luck lets get 'em!

Glglglglglglglglglglglglglglgl

about tony brothers were they refs tonight wich team

Dal/NyK line and LaL/Det line have increased in my book by .5

This makes the DAL/NYK game more to the systems liking and the LAL/DET is moving the wrong way for the system. 

Just to give everyone an update.

DAL/NYK 192

LAL/DET 187

thank you very much cashin

thank you very much cashin

Good luck rlawson!

over on the lakers game looks solid BOL  

Nice day yesterday my friend. Good Luck today. Looking forward to your plays.

Turtle

Hey RLawson im creating a spreadsheet based on your systems numbers, closing lines and the actual score of each pick and a few other factors since like Feb 14 around there. Just too see around where is the "perfect" spot to bet on , even though it wont be 100% because anything can happend just like yesterday you should of gone 3-0 but  nothing is perfect  just have to work at getting close to it. Im just looking at the difference between them and analyzing what % of these difference is actually hitting than the rest. Hopefully this can help all of us, just a little project i want to finish by the end of the week, and see the difference.  Once im done i'll let you know hopefully i can finish and see the outcome .

Wish me luck .

Good luck with that! I've recently been considering increasing the variance that I look for. As you can see from my total record, the 1 Unit plays are just BARELY creating a profit and while it would drastically diminish the quantity of plays I have, only playing those that would be considered 2 Units are more would be sitting at 19-6 (76%) right now. Let me know what you come up with; that would be very interesting to see.

Thanks for the kind words! I haven't been able to be as attentive to the board for a few days, but I'm currently in the airport, flying through Denver then back out to the Bay Area to continue "life as normal." I always look forward to your input on my plays because, while the system is nice and a great starting point, a little common sense (which most of the time I'm lacking) is always helpful.

thebestpics, Saek, dendogg, Sabar, turtle, Bernman, CD, philly, Full-Grown, redbull & andre - thanks for the well wishes; GL to you all today (sorry if I forgot anyone).