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NFL_Sharp Week 15 Picks, Rankings, and Projections (32-14-2 Sides YTD, 69.6%)

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Author: [NFL Betting] Topic: NFL_Sharp Week 15 Picks, Rankings, and Projections (32-14-2 Sides YTD, 69.6%)
Thaistix PM Thaistix
Joined: Oct 2007
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Posted: 12/14/2012 12:39:08 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by NFL_Sharp:

I agree - for the entire season I think Seattle definitely has a top 8 defense.  But not over the past 3 weeks, efficiency wise.  Certainly a shutout improves their ranking, but how much of the shutout was due to turnovers - and the system also takes SOS into account - how impressive is it for a top caliber defense to give up minimal points to a bottom dwelling offense (with the benefit of 8 turnovers no less).  The previous week, the far below average offense of the Bears was very efficient (9 YPA, 4YPR, no sacks allowed, etc, etc), and the week before that, a below average Miami offense performed similarly (9.5 YPA, 6.8 YPR, etc, etc).  This is where my model excels - in the face of bias (I'm not trying to insult you or anyone else at all - humans are biased - I'm the same way).  On the outside, everyone sees a 58-0, 8 forced turnover massacre of the Cardinals and thinks Seattle's defense is playing at an elite level.  They fail to remember the previous two weeks against inferior (even compared to the average) offenses, where that same defense allowed an average YPA over 9 (very high) and average YPR over 5 (very high) to go along with other poor defensive stats. 

I don't disagree that Seattle has a top level defense.  But I only care about how they're playing now.  And "now" doesn't mean the previous game that can be filled with almost entirely random noise (like 8 turnovers).  In my model, now means the previous three weeks, where Seattle has performed poorly, even if they had been facing above average offenses.  The fact that the two were far below average only drops them further in the rankings.  A shutout of one of, if not the worst offense in the league, helps their ranking, but isn't near enough to dig them out of the hole dug by their previous two showings against below average offenses.

I truly wasn't trying to sound arrogant or condescending, if I came across that way.  Good luck this week sir.

Thanks for clarifying, Keep up the great work..!

BOL to you sir..!

Teaser78 PM Teaser78
Joined: Jan 2010
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Posted: 12/14/2012 12:46:01 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by NFL_Sharp:

Defense has performed with a high efficiency the past three weeks.  The offense played very efficiently against a good Seattle defense, and turnovers have plagued their efficiency in the previous two vs Minnesota - neither of which were terrible performances.  My model limits the effect turnovers have as they are unpredictable.  Chicago's top ranking is based in large part to them being above average on both sides of the ball, over the past three, SOS adjusted.  Most teams are significantly deficient on one side or the other, which brings their overall ranking down.  The Bears previous three have been solid on both sides.  Most will look at the scores, see a 1-2 record against Seattle at home and Minnesota twice and call the Bears awful.  Efficiency stats (best suited to beat the spread over the long run, in my opinion) say otherwise.

Good luck this week sir.

thank you for your clarification .. good luck to you 
bigmikeLA PM bigmikeLA
Joined: Jun 2012
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Posted: 12/14/2012 2:07:33 PM
Sharp! Colin Cowherd agrees with yah 4-5 picks! BOL!
Skipster PM Skipster
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Posted: 12/14/2012 2:44:49 PM
NFL_Sharp PM NFL_Sharp
Joined: Oct 2012
Posts: 179
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Posted: 12/16/2012 8:21:30 PM
Some nasty stats from today - those with weak stomachs may want to stop reading.  Of the six side plays that have gone today, the overall turnover margin has been -8 (6-14 - not including ToD) with a total of 79 points against off those 14 turnovers and 10 points for.  I feel very fortunate to only be 3-4 so far, and to have had a winning day.  Got a bit of a laugh out of these numbers and just felt like sharing.  Just one of those days - I'm sure these all even out over the long haul - but if there's a prop on SF turnovers out there, I'd definitely hit the over pretty hard - haha.  Hope everyone else has had a good day, and good luck tonight.  
dkite22 PM dkite22
Joined: Nov 2009
Posts: 496
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Posted: 12/16/2012 11:20:18 PM
Definitely a crazy day in the NFL.  Getting even crazier as the 49ers are pissing it down their leg.  Still a profitable day my friend and look forward to next week's picks
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