NFL_Sharp Week 15 Picks, Rankings, and Projections (32-14-2 Sides YTD, 69.6%)

Any thoughts on the Thursday night game?

I also like ATL and HOU to cover at home.

Slight lean on Philly, as they should be able to run the ball without much problem.  This should keep the score lower and the turnovers down.  Could go either way though, I think the number at 4 is dead on.  Good luck this week.

My plays are made based on the stats that generate these projections, not the projections themselves.  I don't bet simply based on these projections, they are just interesting and helpful tools in my opinion.  As I said last week, sometimes the game flow will lead to anomalous outcomes, as the projections are based on averages across the underlying stats.  Most of the time, game flow will be near enough to the projected values that the projections will be fairly accurate.  Sometimes, it won't.  Adding up across the stat projections will prove inaccurate in these occurrences.  The underlying stats are better predictors of this, and that's why they're used by the system instead of the projections.

Totals, like side plays, are based on the underlying projected stats.  The difference is that over/unders must be a point or more off of the total to be a play.  For sides, I don't have this rule.  I expect the Jags to have a very difficult time moving the ball in this one.  The only thing worrying me here is turnovers for the Jags on strip sacks.  

**I said projections had to be a point better than totals to be plays - the actual score projection for the Jags/Dolphins game is 7.74 to 28.68

These are rolling 3 week, SOS adjusted efficiency rankings - not power rankings.