In a stunning upset that reverberated through New York City’s political establishment, 33‑year‑old New York State assembly member Zohran Mamdani has captured the Democratic primary for mayor of NYC, defeating former Governor Andrew Cuomo in a turn of events few saw coming.
As Cuomo concedes and vows to reassess, bettors are shifting their positions. Mamdani’s rise, driven by progressive momentum, grassroots energy, and ranked-choice voting, has reshaped the landscape. With the general election looming, attention turns to how market signals will respond to turnout, endorsements, and the prospect of a Cuomo independent run.
Join us as we break down the latest odds, explain why they’re moving, and share key betting strategies. Whether you’re following the money or just the headlines, this is the guide you need to stay ahead of NYC’s electrifying mayoral showdown.
📅 Key dates and betting milestones
- Primary: June 24, 2025
- General election: November 4, 2025
- Swearing-in: January 1, 2026
📈 New York City mayor election betting odds
Curious who the favorite is to become New York City's next mayor? Market-based platforms like Kalshi offer valuable insight:
Mamdani has surged past Cuomo after a dominant debate performance and endorsements from progressive leaders. Cuomo’s odds have fallen from 70% in early June to 5%, reflecting concerns over a potential independent run and weak ranked-choice positioning.
Mamdani’s rise
Backed by Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Bernie Sanders, Mamdani’s progressive agenda—housing reform, free childcare, and transit expansion—has energized younger voters. His campaign has been strategic about ranked-choice voting (RCV), ensuring second- and third-choice support. His odds are buoyed by progressive momentum and effective ranked-choice strategy.
Cuomo’s decline
Despite big-name backing and financial muscle (Bloomberg’s PAC contributed over $8 million), Cuomo’s comeback bid has been marred by lingering controversies. While still a viable candidate, Kalshi users now see his path narrowing without cross-ideological support.
The former Governor is betting on name recognition and centrist appeal. Yet with scandal baggage and a primary loss looming, some speculate he may continue as an independent. That uncertainty weakens his odds.
Other candidates
Republican Curtis Sliwa, Independent Eric Adams, and reform lawyer Jim Walden round out the field, but all are long shots in heavily Democratic NYC.
What is ranked-choice voting?
New York uses ranked-choice voting, allowing voters to rank up to five candidates. If no one earns over 50% of first-choice votes, the lowest candidate is eliminated, and ballots are redistributed based on the next preference. This continues until someone clears 50%.
Given NYC’s Democratic tilt, the winner of the primary often becomes the mayor, making June’s vote arguably more critical than November’s.
Betting tips
Betting on politics isn’t just about picking a favorite—it’s about understanding momentum, mechanics, and timing. The 2025 NYC mayoral race is shaped not only by personalities and policies, but also by the quirks of ranked-choice voting and the behavior of informed bettors.
Whether you're placing your first political wager or looking to sharpen your edge, these tips can help you navigate the odds with confidence and insight.
- Follow RCV results: Elimination rounds and transfer ballots can upend early leads.
- Watch the Kalshi markets: Bettor behavior often moves faster than pollsters.
- Track endorsements: Late-stage backing could sway undecided voters or signal internal party shifts.
- Consider turnout swings: Weather and local events could boost or suppress key demographics.
New York City Mayor Election FAQ
The general election is scheduled for Tuesday, November 4, 2025.
Odds shift based on polling data, fundraising reports, endorsements, candidate announcements, political scandals, media coverage, and performance in debates or public forums.
While not perfect, betting odds often reflect real-time public sentiment and insider insights. They can be more dynamic than polls, adjusting immediately to new information, but should be used as one of many tools to understand the race.
Major campaign issues include crime and policing, housing affordability, public transit, homelessness, and climate resilience.
