New York City Mayor Election Odds: Mamdani Favored Despite Possible Trump Involvement

📈 New York City mayor election betting odds

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Mamdani has a commanding lead atop the NYC Mayoral odds board with an implied probability of 80% at Kalshi. Despite losing the primary to Mamdani, Cuomo will run as an independent and has the second-best odds at 10%.

Current Mayor Eric Adams is at 8% and is also running as an independent after withdrawing from the Democratic primary in April. New York City has long been controlled by the Dems, which is why Republican candidate Curtis Sliwa checks in at just 2%. 

"It’s too soon to make a call, but what’s clear is that Mamdani’s victory wasn’t a fluke or protest vote," says Adin Lenchner, progressive campaign strategist at Carroll Street Campaigns. "It was a demonstration of real political power. His campaign wasn’t about playing it safe or triangulating; it was about showing up, being specific, and fighting for a city where working people aren’t pushed to the margins. 

"If this race is about ideas, organizing, and turnout — it’s Mamdani’s to lose. He’s proving that you can run on substance and still dominate the narrative. The rest of the field is reacting to him. That tells you everything."

Who is Zohran Mamdani?

Mamdani is a young left-wing candidate who is poised to become the first Muslim and Indian American to lead the nation's largest city. Backed by Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Bernie Sanders, Mamdani’s progressive agenda—housing reform, free childcare, and transit expansion—has energized younger voters.

Mamdani's campaign has been strategic about ranked-choice voting (RCV), ensuring second- and third-choice support. His odds are buoyed by progressive momentum and effective ranked-choice strategy.

Trump Opposition

President Donald Trump may have moved away from New York but he remains heavily invested in the city he was born and raised in. According to a report in the New York Times on August 6, Trump has discussed whether to intercede in the mayoral race to support Mamdani's opponents. 

In recent weeks he has reached out to political experts to find out who in the crowded field of candidates has the best chance of beating Mamdani. At the top of that list is Cuomo, who previously had an antagonistic relationship with Trump, but is seen as a preferable option to the left-wing Mamdani. 

Trump has fiercely opposed Mamdani calling him a "Communist Lunatic" on his social media platform Truth Social in June. He later repeated baseless claims that Mamdani immigrated to the United States illegally and threatened to arrest him if he blocked immigration arrests in New York City. 

Donors and allies of Adams and Cuomo want the president to intervene and help consolidate the fractured anti-Mamdani vote behind a single opponent. Trump and a spokesperson for Cuomo have both denied discussing the election despite sources claiming they spoke on the phone in recent weeks. Whether he takes a more direct approach could swing the odds in this race. 

Cuomo and Adams Still in Play

Despite big-name backing and financial muscle (Bloomberg’s PAC contributed over $8 million), Cuomo’s comeback bid has been stalled by his primary loss. The former Governor resigned in 2021 due to sexual harassment allegations that he denied.

Adams' name has also been marred by scandal after bribery charges (later dropped by the US Justice Department) last year. Both candidates are betting on name recognition and centrist appeal but will have a narrow path to victory as an independent.

That path could widen if they get the support of the president. That said, don't rule out the possibility that an endorsement from Trump could backfire given the president's waning popularity in his home state. 

What is ranked-choice voting?

New York uses ranked-choice voting, allowing voters to rank up to five candidates. If no one earns over 50% of first-choice votes, the lowest candidate is eliminated, and ballots are redistributed based on the next preference. This continues until someone clears 50%.

Given NYC’s Democratic tilt, the winner of the primary often becomes the mayor, making June’s vote arguably more critical than November’s.

Political priorities are shifting in NYC

A lot has changed since the last mayoral race in the Big Apple, both politically and socially. 

"The last mayoral race was dominated by the fear and chaos of COVID-19, the novelty of ranked choice voting, and trying to capitalize on the instability that came from voter concerns of safety and a return to normalcy," Lenchner explains.

"In 2021, a lot of candidates rode to prominence on the idea that the city was out of control — and that only tough-on-crime centrism could save it. But that message has run out of steam.

People still care deeply about safety and affordability, but they’re looking for leaders who understand root causes and offer tangible, structural solutions. Mamdani did that — and voters rewarded it."

Mamdani's campaign has been rife with controversy 

Mamdani's rise to stardom hasn't been without its setbacks, including a pair of prominent controversies that have rapidly taken on a life of their own.

Mamdani scrutinized over college application

Mamdani is catching heat after a New York Times report revealed he identified as both “Asian” and “Black or African American” on his 2009 college application to Columbia University. Mamdani, who was born in Uganda to South Asian parents, said the application didn’t offer enough flexibility to describe his complex identity. He added “Ugandan” in the space for additional details and insisted it wasn’t about gaming the system, but rather trying to represent himself authentically. Columbia didn’t accept him, even though his father has been on the university’s faculty since 1999.

Conservative voices on Fox News and social media have slammed Mamdani, accusing him of misrepresenting himself for personal gain, with some even comparing the situation to the controversy around Elizabeth Warren’s Native American heritage claims. One pundit called him a “full-blown communist,” while others claimed he was trying to work the race-conscious admissions system, which the Supreme Court has since struck down.

Mamdani’s defenders say he was simply navigating a system that didn’t account for the nuance of mixed backgrounds, but for his opponents, the story fits neatly into a larger narrative of mistrust toward progressive candidates.

Mamdani and Trump tussle

In a startling escalation ahead of the general election, President Donald Trump publicly threatened to arrest Mamdani because the Assemblyman pledged to thwart federal immigration agents seeking deportations.

Trump denounced Mamdani as "a 100% Communist lunatic" and falsely insinuated he might be in the U.S. illegally, warning, "Well then, we’ll have to arrest him."

In response, Mamdani condemned the remarks as "an attack on our democracy" and a threat meant to silence New Yorkers who "refuse to hide in the shadows." He firmly declared: "We will not accept this intimidation."

The confrontation highlights the intensifying struggle between federal and local authority over immigration enforcement, and sets a confrontational tone for the campaign.

"Trump’s threats are absurd, but they’re also revealing," Lenchner notes. "They show just how nervous certain people are about a candidate like Mamdani — someone who’s not just talking about affordability and populism, but actually has the trust and coalition to deliver. It’s deeply ironic: Mamdani’s campaign is a real-world expression of many of the issues Trump pretended to care about — cost of living, working-class struggle, anti-elitism. The difference is that Mamdani’s campaign is rooted in authenticity with substantive ideas to deliver for the people being priced out and taken advantage of by those only looking out for their own bottom line."

Betting tips

Betting on politics isn’t just about picking a favorite—it’s about understanding momentum, mechanics, and timing. The 2025 NYC mayoral race is shaped not only by personalities and policies, but also by the quirks of ranked-choice voting and the behavior of informed bettors.

Whether you're placing your first political wager or looking to sharpen your edge, these tips can help you navigate the odds with confidence and insight.

• Follow RCV results: Elimination rounds and transfer ballots can upend early leads.
• Watch the Kalshi markets: Bettor behavior often moves faster than pollsters.
• Track endorsements: Late-stage backing could sway undecided voters or signal internal party shifts.
• Consider turnout swings: Weather and local events could boost or suppress key demographics.
• Keep an eye on the news: More controversies, like Mamdani's college application, could change the way he's perceived by the voters.