New York City Mayor Election Odds: Mamdani Heavily Favored as New Yorkers Head to Polls

📈 New York City mayor election odds

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Mamdani has a commanding lead atop the NYC Mayoral odds board with an implied probability of 87% at Kalshi. Despite losing the primary to Mamdani, Cuomo is running as an independent and has the second-best odds at 13% while Republican candidate Curtis Sliwa has dropped to just under 1%.

Despite trailing, Cuomo does have some momentum. The latest Suffolk poll, released on October 27, showed Mamdani ahead by 10 points. While that's a sizable advantage, it pales in comparison to the 20-point lead that Mamdani had by the same pollster in September.

According to political veteran James Christopher, who worked on Cuomo’s campaign in the primary as a volunteer media consultant, the window to change the narrative has likely closed.

Christopher called Mayor Eric Adams' support for Cuomo "a jolt of energy," but added that "Adams’ endorsement power has dampened from his status as a 'lame duck' Mayor, and I don’t think it’s a game-changer.”

“Adams gives Cuomo credibility with older and working-class voters," says Christopher but it’s probably too little, too late to rewrite the controversies and shift the momentum from almost a year of campaigning.”

Who is Zohran Mamdani?

Mamdani is a young left-wing candidate who is poised to become the first Muslim and Indian American to lead the nation's largest city. His progressive agenda of housing reform, free childcare, and transit expansion has energized younger voters.

Mamdani has capitalized on endorsements from Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Bernie Sanders. However Christopher says these haven’t swayed moderates rather they have supercharged the progressive base's "enthusiasm into turnout, and that’s gold in a low-turnout race.”

Mamdani's campaign has been strategic about ranked-choice voting (RCV), ensuring second- and third-choice support. His odds are buoyed by progressive momentum and effective ranked-choice strategy.

"Mamdani’s victory [in the Democratic Primary] " wasn’t a fluke or protest vote," says Adin Lenchner, progressive campaign strategist at Carroll Street Campaigns. "It was a demonstration of real political power. His campaign wasn’t about playing it safe or triangulating; it was about showing up, being specific, and fighting for a city where working people aren’t pushed to the margins. 

"If this race is about ideas, organizing, and turnout — it’s Mamdani’s to lose. He’s proving that you can run on substance and still dominate the narrative. The rest of the field is reacting to him. That tells you everything."

Trump opposition

President Donald Trump may have moved away from New York but he remains heavily invested in the city he was born and raised in. According to a report in the New York Times on August 6, Trump had discussed whether to intercede in the mayoral race to support Mamdani's opponents. 

At the top of that list was Cuomo, who previously had an antagonistic relationship with Trump, but is seen as a preferable option to the left-wing Mamdani. 

Trump has fiercely opposed Mamdani calling him a "Communist Lunatic" on his social media platform Truth Social in June. He later repeated baseless claims that Mamdani immigrated to the United States illegally and threatened to arrest him if he blocked immigration arrests in New York City.

Cuomo still in play thanks to Adams endorsement

Despite big-name backing and financial muscle (Bloomberg’s PAC contributed over $8 million), Cuomo’s comeback bid has been stalled by his primary loss. The former Governor resigned in 2021 due to sexual harassment allegations that he denied.

Cuomo's odds received a slight boost on October 23 thanks to an official endorsement from current New York City Mayor Eric Adams. Appearing together at East Harlem’s Carver Houses, Adams passionately urged voters to back Cuomo in the final stretch before early voting. The move followed weeks of public thawing between the onetime rivals and was framed as an effort to block Mamdani. 

The endorsement positions Adams as a would-be kingmaker after exiting the race in September, while his dismissed federal corruption case removes a major legal cloud from the calculation.

Strategically, backing Cuomo seeks to consolidate anti-Mamdani voters across moderate Democrats, independents, and some Republicans. The gambit could help Cuomo with business-friendly constituencies but risks further alienating progressives who already oppose him.

According to Christopher, Cuomo does have one path to victory. “Cuomo owns the competence lane but needs to keep every ounce of energy. That means hitting up every senior center, every subway stop, and hammering home that experience matters when the city’s on the line.”

Christopher warned that last-minute wildcards, could come from older, outer-borough moderates which is a bloc that might get underrated.

“Older voters and outer-borough moderates — the ones who still watch the evening news and decide late. They could swing five points if they show up.”

What is ranked-choice voting?

New York uses ranked-choice voting, allowing voters to rank up to five candidates. If no one earns over 50% of first-choice votes, the lowest candidate is eliminated, and ballots are redistributed based on the next preference. This continues until someone clears 50%.

Given NYC’s Democratic tilt, the winner of the primary often becomes the mayor, making June’s vote arguably more critical than November’s.

Political priorities are shifting in NYC

A lot has changed since the last mayoral race in the Big Apple, both politically and socially. 

"The last mayoral race was dominated by the fear and chaos of COVID-19, the novelty of ranked choice voting, and trying to capitalize on the instability that came from voter concerns of safety and a return to normalcy," Lenchner explains.

"In 2021, a lot of candidates rode to prominence on the idea that the city was out of control - and that only tough-on-crime centrism could save it. But that message has run out of steam.

People still care deeply about safety and affordability, but they’re looking for leaders who understand root causes and offer tangible, structural solutions. Mamdani did that, and voters rewarded it."

If Mamdani holds on, Christopher says, it’ll be more than just a political win. “NYC is a bellwether that could signal the dawn of the activist-candidate era. The next decade of Democrats will be younger, bolder, and far less afraid to challenge the establishment.”

Mamdani's campaign has been rife with controversy 

Mamdani's rise to stardom hasn't been without its setbacks, including some controversies that have rapidly taken on a life of their own.

Much Ado About Nothing

The most recent "scandals" surrounding Mamdani haven't really been scandalous at all, and have failed to move the needle on public support. That includes being labelled a hypocrite for having dinner at an expensive sushi restaurant.

Mamdani also received pushback for sharing a story about how his "aunt" feared wearing a hijab on the subway after 9/11. Some saw that as insensible to those whose family members died in the tragedy while others accused him of lying because the "aunt" was actually his father's cousin.

Cuomo has stoked fears of Mamdani's ethnic background and Muslim faith. His campaign even briefly ran an AI ad which mocked Mamdani for eating rice with his hands and depicted him releasing hordes of criminals and terrorists. 

Ultimately such accusations only highlight how desperate Cuomo's campaign is getting as it looks to unturn every stone in an effort to discredit Mamdani. Conservatives who would never vote for Mamdani might buy those accusations but it won't sway the moderates that Cuomo desperately needs.

Mamdani scrutinized over college application

Mamdani caught heat after a New York Times report revealed he identified as both “Asian” and “Black or African American” on his 2009 college application to Columbia University. Mamdani, who was born in Uganda to South Asian parents, said the application didn’t offer enough flexibility to describe his complex identity. He added “Ugandan” in the space for additional details and insisted it wasn’t about gaming the system, but rather trying to represent himself authentically. Columbia didn’t accept him, even though his father has been on the university’s faculty since 1999.

Conservative voices on Fox News and social media slammed Mamdani, accusing him of misrepresenting himself for personal gain, with some even comparing the situation to the controversy around Elizabeth Warren’s Native American heritage claims. One pundit called him a “full-blown communist,” while others claimed he was trying to work the race-conscious admissions system, which the Supreme Court has since struck down.

Mamdani’s defenders say he was simply navigating a system that didn’t account for the nuance of mixed backgrounds, but for his opponents, the story fits neatly into a larger narrative of mistrust toward progressive candidates.

Mamdani and Trump tussle

In a startling escalation ahead of the general election, President Donald Trump publicly threatened to arrest Mamdani because the Assemblyman pledged to thwart federal immigration agents seeking deportations.

Trump denounced Mamdani as "a 100% Communist lunatic" and falsely insinuated he might be in the U.S. illegally, warning, "Well then, we’ll have to arrest him."

In response, Mamdani condemned the remarks as "an attack on our democracy" and a threat meant to silence New Yorkers who "refuse to hide in the shadows." He firmly declared: "We will not accept this intimidation."

The confrontation highlights the intensifying struggle between federal and local authority over immigration enforcement, and sets a confrontational tone for the campaign.

"Trump’s threats are absurd, but they’re also revealing," Lenchner notes. "They show just how nervous certain people are about a candidate like Mamdani — someone who’s not just talking about affordability and populism, but actually has the trust and coalition to deliver."

"It’s deeply ironic: Mamdani’s campaign is a real-world expression of many of the issues Trump pretended to care about — cost of living, working-class struggle, anti-elitism. The difference is that Mamdani’s campaign is rooted in authenticity with substantive ideas to deliver for the people being priced out and taken advantage of by those only looking out for their own bottom line."

Mamdani's stance on affordability extends to soccer

Mamdani isn't just concerned with housing affordability. He also cares deeply about the cost of sporting events and recently spoke out against the exorbitant fees for the upcoming FIFA World Cup. The event is returning to North America for the first time since 1994 and will be staged in cities across the continent, including MetLife Stadium in nearby East Rutherford, New Jersey.

"I have long been quite troubled by how the supposed stewards of the game have opted for profit time and time again at the expense of the people that love this game," he told The Guardian in an exclusive interview. "There’s just no chance for so many who love this game so much to actually be able to go and see this. This also has a real impact on the potential for the atmosphere of the World Cup and just how many fans will actually be there."

Mamdani is calling for FIFA to end its dynamic pricing and to set aside 15% of tickets for local residents. He is also asking the event's governing body to place a cap on the amount tickets are allowed to be resold for on its proprietary ticketing platform.

Only time will tell if Mamdani's influence extends beyond the five boroughs and all the way to FIFA's global offices in Zurich.

Mamdani accused of foreign donations fraud

NYC Campaign Finance Board filings revealed Mamdani's campaign received approximately $13,000 from donors listing foreign addresses. That's a major infraction as non-citizens are not permitted to give money to mayoral campaigns. News outlets counted roughly 170 such contributions, one of which was a $500 gift from his mother-in-law in Dubai, that his office refunded within four days. 

The campaign said it will return any donation not compliant with CFB rules. Meanwhile, the Coolidge Reagan Foundation, has since filed criminal referrals urging investigation. 

Whether any donors were non-citizens remains unproven and CFB routinely audits campaigns after elections, which will evaluate compliance and refunds.

Betting tips

Betting on politics isn’t just about picking a favorite—it’s about understanding momentum, mechanics, and timing. The 2025 NYC mayoral race is shaped not only by personalities and policies, but also by the quirks of ranked-choice voting and the behavior of informed bettors.

Whether you're placing your first political wager or looking to sharpen your edge, these tips can help you navigate the odds with confidence and insight.

• Follow RCV results: Elimination rounds and transfer ballots can upend early leads.
• Watch the Kalshi markets: Bettor behavior often moves faster than pollsters.
• Track endorsements: Late-stage backing could sway undecided voters or signal internal party shifts.
• Consider turnout swings: Weather and local events could boost or suppress key demographics.
• Keep an eye on the news: More controversies, like Mamdani's college application, could change the way he's perceived by the voters.