The 2024 US election was blown wide open with Joe Biden's shocking withdrawal, and while Kamala Harris remains the popular choice to take his place on the Democratic ticket there's another familiar name: Michelle Obama.
Although the wife of former president Barack Obama is ostensibly not in the running, she has leapfrogged everybody not named Donald Trump and Kamala Harris, and her betting odds have moved from +6,600 several months ago (though she has lost some ground in recent days relative to both the Trump odds and Harris odds). Is there anything tangible to this line movement or is it a mix of conspiracy theory and wish fulfillment?
Let's take a closer look at Michelle Obama's presidential election odds and examine the key obstacles that may stand in her path.
Michelle Obama fast facts
| Date of birth | January 17, 1964 |
| Place of birth | Chicago, IL |
| Residence | Washington, DC |
| Political affiliation | Democratic Party |
| Net worth | $70 million USD |
| Education | Princeton University and Harvard University |
Michelle Obama is more than just the wife of Barack Obama. A graduate from Princeton and Harvard, she began her career as a lawyer but transitioned to the public sector soon after. While supporting her husband in his political career she was under plenty of scrutiny from the media but saw her popularity rise during her time in the White House.
While Michelle has avoided direct involvement in politics, she often advocated for her husband's policies and helped promote his bills. She has also been active in philanthropy, receiving national attention for her advocacy on education and her public health campaign "Let's Move!" which encourages a healthy lifestyle for children.
2024 presidential election betting odds
| Candidate | Odds to win 2024 US election at  |
Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
 Donald Trump |
-175 | 63.6% |
 Kamala Harris |
+137 | 42.1% |
| Michelle Obama |
+4,000 | 2.4% |
| Hillary Clinton |
<+5,000> | 1.9% |
 Robert Kennedy Jr. |
+5,000 | 1.9% |
| JD Vance |
+6,600 | 1.5% |
| Gavin Newsom |
+10,000 | 1% |
| Mark Kelly |
+15,000 | 0.7% |
| Gretchen Whitmer |
+20,000 | 0.5% |
| Josh Shapiro |
+20,000 | 0.5% |
| Wes Moore |
+20,000 | 0.5% |
| Nikki Haley |
+20,000 | 0.5% |
| John Fetterman |
+20,000 | 0.5% |
| J.B. Pritzker |
+20,000 | 0.5% |
| Pete Buttigieg |
+20,000 | 0.5% |
| Bernie Sanders |
+20,000 | 0.5% |
| Joe Manchin |
+20,000 | 0.5% |
| Jamie Dimon |
+30,000 | 0.3% |
| Elizabeth Warren |
+30,000 | 0.3% |
| Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez |
+30,000 | 0.3% |
| Josh Hawley |
+30,000 | 0.3% |
| Oprah Winfrey |
+30,000 | 0.3% |
| Mark Cuban |
+30,000 | 0.3% |
| John Kerry |
+30,000 | 0.3% |
| Thomas Massie |
+30,000 | 0.3% |
Odds courtesy of bet365 as of July 26, 2024. Implied probability in betting is the likelihood of an event occurring as inferred from the odds offered by a sportsbook or the market.
Obamas endorse Harris
There has been plenty of movement on the 2024 presidential election odds board over the last few years but perhaps the biggest move has been Michelle Obama surging from +6,600 to as high as +550 over the last few months.
The most shocking thing about that line movement is that the former First Lady isn't even a candidate, and has always claimed that a career in politics doesn't appeal to her. Seeing Obama listed higher than Gavin Newsom and Gretchen Whitmer, is a testament to her popularity and the enduring shine of her husband's presidency.
All the speculation can cease, however, as the Obamas officially endorsed Harris for president on Friday. As a result, Harris' odds to be the Democratic candidate include an implied probability of 99%. With the backing of the Obamas and the Clintons, it appears America is heading for a Trump v. Harris showdown.
Michelle Obama US presidential odds over time
Covers US presidential election betting tools
2024 presidential election Democratic candidate odds
| Nomination Winner | |
Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| Kamala Harris | -10,000 | 99% |
| Michelle Obama | +3,300 | 2.9% |
| Hillary Clinton | +4,000 | 2.4% |
| Gavin Newsom | +8,000 | 1.2% |
| Gretchen Whitmer | +15,000 | 0.7% |
Odds courtesy of bet365 as of July 26, 2024.
Obama is still a massive long shot
Although Michelle Obama is a natural choice to lead the Democratic party, the probability of her winning the presidency is a long shot of epic proportions at this point in the election cycle, and the current odds of +3,300 still don't accurately reflect that.
Smarkets gives Obama a 1.1% chance of winning the upcoming election, and her current implied probability of 2.9% – even as modest as it might seem – is astronomical in comparison. In fact, political analyst and former chief strategist for Barack Obama, David Axelrod has said that a Michelle Obama candidacy is just as likely as him dancing in the Bolshoi Ballet.
Even if there's little truth to this speculation, bettors around the world have been eager to wager on Michelle Obama which has created liability for books who have shifted the odds in response. That said, for those looking for a political betting option to consider, the vice president odds present a much greater opportunity given that the outcome is still very much in doubt.
