Trump 2024 Odds to Win Next US Presidential Election

Don't call it a comeback for Donald Trump.

Despite losing the previous election, Trump hasn't strayed far from the spotlight and remains at the top of the US presidential election odds board.

After locking up the Republican nomination with a dominant Super Tuesday, Trump became the odds-on favorite to win the 2024 election. However, recent polls indicate that his election rematch against Joe Biden will be close, and the two rivals are now tied with identical odds of +110.

Here are Trump's presidential election odds as he looks to become just the second person ever to serve two non-consecutive terms in the White House. 

Donald Trump fast facts

2024 presidential election betting odds

Candidate	Odds to win 2024 US election at	Implied probability
Donald Trump	+110	47.6%
Joe Biden	+110	47.6%
Michelle Obama	+1,600	5.9%
Robert Kennedy Jr.	+1,600	5.9%
Gavin Newsom	+2,800	3.4%
Kamala Harris	+3,300	2.9%
Nikki Haley	+5,000	2%
Gretchen Whitmer	+7,000	1.4%
Hakeem Jeffries	+10,000	1%
Elizabeth Warren	+15,000	0.66%
Hillary Clinton	+15,000	0.66%

Odds courtesy of bet365 as of April 18, 2024.

Beating Biden

Short of a health issue or a shocking legal turn, an election rematch between Donald Trump and incumbent President Joe Biden is set in stone. Given Biden's tumultuous term in the White House, the upcoming election should be a layup for the Republican Party, but recent polls indicate that we're in for another dogfight. 

A Reuters/Ipsos poll in April showed Trump had the support of 37% of registered voters, trailing Biden, who checked in at 41%. Other recent polls from Morning Consult and YouGov gave Trump slim 1-point leads, while TIPP Insights has the election in a dead heat with both Trump and Biden at 38% support.

Trump is polling much better than he was four years ago, with Biden’s presidency burdened by high inflation, big industrial policy bills, a rise in illegal immigration, and turmoil abroad. However, both men are unpopular and there are major questions about whether Trump's policies will do anything tangibly to fix those issues.

While only 40.3% of Americans have a favorable opinion of President Joe Biden, Trump checks in only slightly better at 42.4%. And while a Gallup poll rated Trump as the more decisive leader, it also rated him significantly lower in likeability and trustworthiness. 

It's been a double-edged sword for Trump with his brash and abrasive personality appealing to the MAGA vote but also losing support from moderate Republicans and those across the aisle. Ultimately whether he can win the general election will come down to whether swing-voters are willing to tolerate his character in exchange for policies that they feel will improve their quality of life.

Many Never-Trumpers and those Republicans unwilling to vote for Trump again would still be loathe to cross aisles and vote for Biden. However, even if they refuse to vote or decide to vote for an Independent option like Robert Kennedy Jr. it would be a boon for the Democrat party.

Battling for the swing states

In elections that look this close, the winner is usually whoever can win key battleground states. Biden won the 2020 election in large part due to narrow victories in swing states such as Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin — all states Trump took in 2016.

Although polls have Trump leading in most battleground states this time around, that gap has been shrinking. According to an April poll by Morning Consult, Biden now leads Trump by a point in Wisconsin and is tied in Pennsylvania and Michigan. 

Trump has seen his support among Latinos grow and an Axios/Ipsos poll gave him an edge on Biden when it came to issues regarding the economy (42-20), crime (31-20), and even immigration (29-22). With Latinos accounting for 15% of eligible voters and having a strong presence in Nevada and Arizona, Trump winning over those voters would be crucial to his success in those states. 

That said, there are ways to lose voters in those battleground states as well, and the recent neat-total abortion ban in Arizona could result in major backlash for the Republicans. While Trump took credit for helping reverse Roe v Wade, he has also said that the recent ban went too far.

Trump facing criminal trials

Trump's presidential election odds took a hit last year when he was indicted in four criminal cases on a total of 91 felony counts. Those included charges for mishandling sensitive documents and trying to overturn the 2020 presidential election, as well as state charges for attempting to change the outcome of Biden's victory in Georgia.

Trump pulled a reverse Uno card on his charges by claiming they are proof of a witch hunt and with his base rallying behind him, his odds have since recovered. It's become clear that not only do most Republicans not care about the legal problems surrounding Trump but that those charges won't derail his campaign as his legal team will look to delay the results until after the election

Trump recently lost his civil fraud case in New York and was ordered to pay a $454 million fine, which he plans to appeal. However, a New York appeals judge also recently rejected his legal team's third attempt to delay his criminal trial regarding hush money.

Even if Trump can push some of his trials until after the election, the energy and money it takes to fight those legal battles will surely wear on him — or at least his wallet.

Rivals within the Republican Party

Over the last few years, other Republicans had emerged as potential presidential candidates, but the primaries proved that Trump is still the unquestioned top dog in the GOP. Trump had such a massive lead in the polls that he didn't even bother attending the primary debates, letting the other challengers tear each other to pieces.

Florida Governor Ron DeSantis emerged as Trump's closest rival but after polling well behind Trump and losing by 30 points to him in the Iowa primary, he dropped out of the race in January. The biggest flaw in DeSantis' campaign was that he drew his support from the MAGA contingent of the base, which remains extremely loyal to Trump.

In fact, Vivek Ramaswamy saw his national profile rise largely due to his support for Trump's policies and his refusal to say anything negative about the former president.

Nikki Haley was the last remaining Republican challenger, but even she conceded defeat after Super Tuesday, following lopsided losses in almost every state — including her own home state of South Carolina. Conservatives even derided Haley's lone two victories by pointing out that Vermont is a staunch blue state and that Trump's reputation as a political outsider is actually reinforced by losing in the political swamp of D.C. 

While it has been a foregone conclusion that Trump would be able to secure the Republican nomination, he'll have a much tougher time winning in the general election, which is reflected in the slight drop in his odds. 

U.S. Presidential Election Winning party odds

Gender		Implied probability
Republican	-105	51.2%
Democrats	-115	53.5%
Independent	+2,500	3.8%

Odds courtesy of bet365 as of April 18, 2024. 

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