Wild vs Stars Odds, Picks, and Predictions Tonight: Robertson Rolls Wild

The Minnesota Wild will wrap up a quick two-game road trip tonight vs. the Dallas Stars before heading home to face the Vegas Golden Knights tomorrow. Neither the Stars nor the Wild were at their best on Monday, as both clubs blew late leads. But the scheduled spot certainly favors the home side tonight, who sit at -140 on the moneyline after opening at -130.

With this being a massive four-point divisional game between the Central-leading Stars — who sit 10 points up on the third-place Wild — should bettors project a big game from Dallas’ top line that dominated Monday with a 93% expected goal percentage?

Find out my best bet for Wild vs. Stars in our NHL picks and predictions for Wednesday, February 8.

Wild vs Stars best odds

Wild vs Stars picks and predictions

This is a big game in the standings of the Central Division, and after Jason Robertson launched 17 shots on net Monday — with seven of those getting on target — this Stars top line will continue to lead the way tonight in a favorable spot.

The Wild lost to the Coyotes on Monday, and gave up 36 shots in doing so. They have to leave immediately following tonight's game, as they play Vegas in Minnesota tomorrow night. This is not an easy spot for the visitors, and I’m expecting more big things from Robertson at home tonight.

The Dallas forward has one of the best home splits in terms of shots on goal. He is averaging 4.56 shots per game on home ice, which is 1.16 more shots than on the road. He is 17-8 O/U this season on his shot market, and we’re getting great plus money at his usual total of 3.5.

This line is moving fast!#TexasHockey JR o3.5 is loooooking TASTY!

AVG 4.8 L6 vs MIN
AVG 4.56 at Home
AVG 5.08 vs Central

Model Projections:
?60% Win
????4.07 xShots
????8% Value#NHLTwitter #gamblingtwitter pic.twitter.com/kvQLtuvyy2

— KrashWagers (@KrashWagers) February 8, 2023

On Monday, Robertson and his line dominated the Ducks and finished with a 93% xGoal%, meaning that line created 93% of the expected goals compared to the line they faced. A 55% xGoal% is considered good. Robertson was firing a ton of pucks, and I’d expect that shooting confidence to continue tonight.

We don’t usually see plus money for his SOG market, and facing the Wild is likely the reason. However, this is a Minnesota team that sits 12th in shots allowed since Jan. 1, and is a much looser team on the road. 

With this game meaning so much in the standings, Robertson will see plenty of ice time after finishing second in time on ice Monday with nearly 23 minutes.

This market is getting shorter, and I have this priced at -120 or -125 for the Over 3.5.

My best bet: Jason Robertson Over 3.5 shots on goal (+114 at Caesars)

Wild vs Stars moneyline analysis

Both the Stars and Wild had an adventurous first game following the All-Star break, where the Stars blew a 2-0 third-period lead to Anaheim but took two points with a shootout win, while the Wild lost 3-2 to Arizona after leading 1-0 and 2-1.

There isn’t a ton of immediate trust for either team, but getting the Stars at -140 on the moneyline at home seems a little long. The market is moving that way after opening as long as -130 at some books.

The -140 price is indicating that if this game were on neutral ice, Dallas would be a slight -115 favorite with home ice being worth as much as 25 points. I believe there is more than a five-point difference between these two teams, and Dallas is the better club.

The Stars are tied with the second-best goal differential in the league at plus-41 and have the third-fewest home losses, as well as the better goalie in Jake Oettinger (No. 4 betting favorite on the Vezina odds board), and the better special teams. The Stars rank sixth on the power play and second on the penalty kill, which makes them one of the best special-team clubs in hockey, and likely only behind the Bruins.

Add in the awful schedule spot for the visitors — who have to travel home tonight to face the Golden Knights tomorrow — and I see this line closer to -160 or even -165, which is certainly enough to add the Dallas moneyline to the account. 

Filip Gustavsson has been confirmed in net for Minnesota and comes in with decent numbers: 2.26 GAA and a .922 SV%. But he is still 11-8 SU, as his team has struggled to support his play. The Wild rank 23rd in goals per game on the road at 2.88.

With the play of Oettinger, the special-teams advantage the home side has, and the tough schedule spot for Minnesota, this is an easy play on the Dallas moneyline tonight at -140. 

Wild vs Stars Over/Under analysis

Dallas was a popular Over pick on Monday, but they came out of the break with some defensive legs, and Oettinger looked to be in a Vezina-run form following the 3-2 shootout win. There's a reason this total opened at 5.5 and remains there after briefly touching six.

Dallas has been one of the most profitable teams to the Under this season with an 18-30-4 O/U record, while the Wild have also been profitable to the Under.

Totals of 5.5 are nothing new to the Stars, who are 3-8 O/U on that mark this season, and are a perfect 5-0 to the Under on 5.5 totals since the Christmas break.

Behind these low-scoring games is a goalie in Oettinger who could finish the season with some Vezina votes, the league’s No. 2 penalty kill, and the No. 2 GAA at 2.56. Scoring against the Stars is not an easy task, and with the Wild sitting in the Bottom 10 in goal production on the road, I’m betting Minnesota doesn’t hit the three-goal mark tonight.

I also don’t think Dallas will run away with this game. Gustavsson has been one of the most underrated goalies in the league, and would have a much better record if his offense supported him more. 

I’m off this total, but certainly lean to the Under 5.5 at plus money.

Wild vs Stars betting trend to know

The Wild are 0-4 in their last four road games. Find more NHL betting trends for Wild vs. Stars.

Wild vs Stars game info

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