Wild vs Stars Game 1 Odds, Picks, and Predictions: Division Rivals Play it Safe In Opening 20 Minutes

The Dallas Stars came oh so close to first place in the Central Division, and as a result, will go to war with the Minnesota Wild in the first round of the Stanley Cup Playoffs.

NHL futures have labeled this as the tightest Round 1 matchup in the West, with both teams possessing elite offensive talent... but also strong goaltending — which is where I'm focusing my free NHL pick for tonight's Game 1.

Let's get into it right away and bet on some NHL odds for a prop that won't make you wait for the entire game.

Wild vs Stars Game 1 odds

Wild vs Stars series odds

Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook as of April 17, 2023.

Wild vs Stars Game 1 predictions

Neither of these clubs is lacking in offensive firepower, with tonight's game seeing the likes of Jason Robertson, Roope Hintz, Kirill Kaprizov, and Matt Boldy (among others) on the ice, but the hallmark for each of these clubs is preventing opponents from scoring.

Tonight, I'm banking on that defense and goaltending delivering in the early going, taking the first period Under 1.5 goals.

The Dallas Stars finished third in the NHL in goals against per game (2.62), powered by Vezina Trophy candidate Jake Oettinger, and in April the Stars really kicked up a notch defensively: They have allowed one or fewer total goals in six of nine games this month, while only allowing more than two goals just once.

The 1P u1.5 went just 5-4 for Dallas in those games, but three of the "losses" included the Stars scoring multiple goals against St. Louis, Detroit, and Chicago — three terrible defensive teams that were just playing out the string on lost seasons.

The Minnesota Wild, however, are not a sieve defensively. Minny finished the season sixth with 2.67 goals against per contest and gave up the ninth-fewest 1P tallies this year, with the emergence of Filip Gustavsson as a top-tier goalie solidifying a back end that (also like Dallas) is Top 10 in scoring chances against per 60 minutes and Top 5 in high-danger chances against per 60 at 5v5. 

Minnesota has been a little leaky in the opening 20 minutes over the last few games, but that also wasn't a fully-motivated Wild side: They really had no chance to catch Dallas or Colorado for the division title, while Winnipeg wasn't a threat to drop them into the wild card, plus Kaprizov from a month-long injury absence last week and the priority was getting him back up to speed and fine tuning the lineup chemistry.

The 1P u1.5 cashed in three of four head-to-head matchups this season, and with both teams also likely to emphasize disciplined, risk-averse hockey in their 2023 postseason debuts, I'm not expecting much in terms of first-period fireworks.

My best bet: First period Under 1.5 (-115 at DraftKings)

Wild vs Stars Game 1 moneyline analysis

This is the closest spread on the docket today, partially because these teams are quite evenly matched... but also because the Oilers, Bruins, and Hurricanes — three of the six shortest favorites on the Stanley Cup odds board — are in action.

These teams each notched two wins in the season series, although Dallas logged two regulation wins, against Minnesota prevailing twice in a shootout, and the line has moved slightly in its favor, opening at -140 and currently sitting as high as -153 at some books.

This is likely because, per Moneypuck, the Stars were the much better team overall throughout those matchups, with 15.92 expected goals vs. 10.06 for the Wild, and recent form also favoring the home side.

Dallas enters tonight winning eight of its last nine games, outscoring opponents 34-14, while the Wild (again, with a little less motivation and mostly no Kaprizov) have lost five of seven overall and dropped four of their last six on the road.

Wild vs Stars Game 1 Over/Under analysis

As mentioned above, both these teams are defensively sound and do an excellent job at limiting quality chances at 5v5, and when shots do get through... there are elite goaltenders waiting to shut the door.

Oettinger finished fourth in the NHL with a .919 SV% while also being seventh with 26.18 goals saved above average, also landing in the Top 10 with a 2.37 GAA through 62 appearances. He's been especially hot as of late, giving up just three goals in his last four games. Over his last eight appearances, he has a .942 SV%, a 1.43 GAA, and has allowed more than two goals just once.

Not to be outdone, Gustavsson played only 39 games (taking over from Marc-Andre Fleury as the No. 1 midseason), but posted 31.34 GSAA — third-most in the entire league — with a .931 SV% and a 2.10 GAA.

Each of the last three H2H matchups also finished with five or fewer total goals, and the Under tonight is carrying the extra vig (anywhere from -120 to -135). 

Wild vs Stars betting trend to know

The first period Under 1.5 cashed in three of four head-to-head matchups this season. Find more NHL betting trends for Wild vs Stars.

Wild vs Stars Game 1 game info

Wild vs Stars Game 1 injuries

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