The NHL continues its Global Series in Sweden as the Ottawa Senators take on the Minnesota Wild.
There were six goals scored in each of the two meetings between these teams last season, and the total is listed at 6 in the NHL odds.
Will we see another low-scoring affair, or can the goals pick up this time around? Find out in our free NHL picks for Wild vs. Senators on Saturday, November 18.
Wild vs Senators odds
Wild vs Senators predictions
There have been six or fewer total goals scored in three of Minnesota’s past four games, a trend that is likely to continue in this matchup. First, the offense continues to be completely one-dimensional as the Top 6 completely carries this team.
The Wild rank 24th in the league in expected goals for per 60 minutes (xGF/60) at 5-on-5. The defense has been much stronger, at least at even strength, as it ranks around league average in expected goals against per 60 minutes (xGA/60) at 5-on-5.
The emergence of Brock Faber as a legit force on the blueline has led to these improved defensive results. Backing up this defensively-improving team is goaltender Marc-Andre Fleury, who is expected to start between the pipes on Saturday.
His stats are currently weighed down due to a brutal performance last time out against the Dallas Stars, a game in which Fleury surrendered eight goals on 37 shots for a .784 SV%. That terrible outing makes me even more confident in an excellent performance from the future first ballot Hall-of-Famer in a bounce-back spot.
Across the ice, goaltender Joonas Korpisalo is slated to take the crease for Ottawa. It’s been a strong season for the Finnish netminder, who is 5-4 with a .906 SV% and a 3.17 GAA through 11 appearances in net.
However, Korpisalo may not get much goal support as the Senators rank third-to-last in xGA/60 at 5-on-5. That means regression is looming for an Ottawa team that is scoring at an unsustainable 3.93-per-game rate, which bodes well for taking the Under in this contest.
My best bet: Under 6 (+145 at SIA)
Wild vs Senators same-game parlay
Under 6.5
Wild moneyline
Ottawa is primed for offensive regression as it ranks second in goals scored per game but 30th in xGF/60 at 5-on-5.
If the Sens’ expected offensive regression is realized on Saturday, then Minnesota is going to be in a great spot considering its blue line is much stronger. The Wild rank 20th in expected goal differential per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 while Ottawa ranks 29th.
That leaves us with goaltending, which gives an edge to Korpisalo and the Senators. However, Fleury is in a bounce-back spot after an uncharacteristically terrible performance his last time out.
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Wild vs Senators moneyline and Over/Under analysis
The Wild opened as a -118 favorite and remain at that price as of Friday afternoon. With Minnesota losing three straight games and the Sens winning each of their past two, including Thursday’s game in Sweden, I think the market will skew more towards Ottawa, although I suspect the buy-back will be quick given all the aforementioned variables.
That brings us to the total, which opened at 6.5 and also remains at that number. With that said, I like the Under 6 at +126 more than laying four cents of juice at 6.5, but I think there’s still value in that number if you wish to go that route.
The Under is 4-1-1 in Minnesota’s last six games when playing on three or more days rest.
Wild vs Senators betting trend to know
There have been six or fewer total goals scored in three of Minnesota’s past four games. Find more NHL betting trends for Wild vs. Senators.
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Wild vs Senators game info
| Location: | Avicii Arena, Stockholm, Sweden |
| Date: | Saturday, November 18, 2023 |
| Puck drop: | 11:00 a.m. ET |
| TV: | TSN |
Wild vs Senators latest injuries
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