Stars vs Wild Game 4 Odds, Picks, and Predictions: Expect More Second-Period Scoring Exchanges

After a slow start turned into a nightmare performance, the Dallas Stars look to level the series and reclaim home ice when they take on the Minnesota Wild on Sunday night in Game 4 of their first-round Western Conference series. 

The Wild hold a 2-1 lead after a dominant 5-1 victory on Friday night, in which Filip Gustavsson returned to his spot in goal and held Dallas to just one goal while making 24 saves.

Minnesota was physical and despite being dominated in the faceoff, was able to control play and put away its chances.

Despite the four-goal victory, Minnesota is only slightly favored to win Game 4 at home, while NHL odds prefer the Under 5.5 on the total. Read more in our NHL betting picks below.

Stars vs Wild Game 4 odds

Stars vs Wild series odds

Odds courtesy of DraftKings as of April 23

Stars vs Wild Game 4 predictions

The story of this series so far has been penalties, the major penalty that was waived off for the hit on Joe Pavelski in Game 1, the special teams performance of the Stars, the war of words between the two head coaches, with Dean Evason claiming the Stars are diving after Pete DeBoer discussed how undisciplined they expected Minnesota to be.

However, the Minnesota Wild were much more disciplined in Game 3 and got a power-play goal of their own to go ahead 3-1 in the second period on Friday night. It was their third power-play goal of the series and their second goal of the period, re-establishing their two-goal cushion that had lasted all of 11 seconds early in the period.

Luke Glendening’s goal moments after Marcus Johansson gave the Wild a 2-0 lead was the latest example of these two teams responding quickly and attacking right after a score.

Game 2 saw the Stars score twice within 90 seconds early in the second period, just to see the Wild score two of their own within 11 seconds to make it a contest again. In response, the Dallas Stars lit the lamp twice inside a minute later in the period to make it 6-3 and effectively end the contest.

This has been a series of trends in a way. The Stars have needed a man advantage, one way or the other, to open things up and get on the scoreboard. The Wild have needed Filip Gustavsson in net to keep them at bay, with his performance over two starts making the decision not to start him in Game 2 even more head-scratching.

The biggest trend, however, has been the intensity in the middle stanza. The second period of the first three games has featured 12 of the 21 goals, more than the other 7+ periods of play combined thus far.

In fact, both teams have scored in each of the games between the first and second intermission. The pace of play has seemed to ramp up more after the first period, and that’s likely helped lead to the influx of goals.

Given the way this series has played out, and what’s on the line for both teams, I expect another punch-counterpunch type of contest. That’s why I’m all over both teams to light the lamp in the second period, which FanDuel is offering at +148 and is a much better price than the second-period total of 1.5, which sits around -145 across the board.

I don’t expect to see one scoring in the period without the other, so take this sneaky play instead of the Over and enjoy the better price. 

My best bet: Both teams to score in the second period (+148 at FanDuel)

Stars vs Wild Game 4 moneyline analysis

The Wild are favored for the first time in the series, with every book featuring them at minus odds ahead of the Stars. While they’re not heavy favorites, that’s a change from Game 3, where they were slight dogs on home ice. The line has shifted a bit back towards the Stars though after the Wild opened closer to -120 and now sit at -115. 

Minnesota fed off the crowd on Friday night, and more importantly, it defended exceptionally well. Dallas had very few real chances to score despite 25 shots, as it frequently mishandled the puck and turned it over in dangerous areas.

One area the Stars will have to account for in Game 4 is the loss of Joel Eriksson Ek, who returned in Game 3 just to leave the ice again injured after just 20 seconds. 

The Stars controlled the puck drops by a +15 margin and will need to do that again on Sunday night if they hope to level the series. That said, they’re going to need Jason Robinson to step up. All three of his points have come via the power play, and the franchise record-holder for most points in a season needs to become a force at even strength. 

The Stars will take solace in the fact that both they and the Wild blew 2-1 series leads in the opening round of last year’s NHL playoffs, so the hole they find themselves in isn’t an inescapable one.

However, they'll need to find a way to replace the production lost with Pavelski out, as he remains in concussion protocol. 

Stars vs Wild Game 4 Over/Under analysis

Tonight’s contest opened with a total of 5.5 and hasn’t moved, either in terms of the number or the odds. The Under has been sitting around -120 almost everywhere and hasn’t shifted much if at all. 

While two of the first three games have gone Over that number, Game 3 only did so via an empty-net tally with two minutes to go.

Jake Oettinger had his worst performance in a playoff game, allowing four goals on 24 shots, but he wasn’t outstanding in the first two games to be totally honest. He’s now allowed 10 goals through three games, after allowing a total of three in his last three regular-season contests against the Wild. 

The Stars are struggling to get past Gustavsson, who's allowed just three goals in more than seven periods vs. the seven goals Dallas put past Marc-Andre Fleury in Game 2. He's now allowed only seven goals in four meetings with Dallas this season across the regular season and playoffs. 

Stars vs Wild betting trend to know

The Over is 5-0 in Dallas' last five road games. Find more NHL betting trends for Stars vs. Wild.

Stars vs Wild Game 4 game info

Stars vs Wild Game 4 injuries

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