Strange Schedule Pumps Out Profits for This NHL Betting Strategy

NHL bettors can take advantage of the opportunity two-game sets present when the Washington Capitals and New Jersey Devils play a back-to-back this weekend.

Rohit Ponnaiya - Betting Analyst at Covers.com
Rohit Ponnaiya • Betting Analyst
Apr 14, 2021 • 21:34 ET
Alexander Ovechkin Washington Capitals NHL
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

The modified 2020-21 NHL schedule has created some intriguing opportunities for NHL betting with teams often playing two-game sets against each other, meeting twice in the same venue in the span of three days.

We combed through every two-game series in the NHL up to April 11, a whopping 272 contests, and we're seeing a return of almost 12 units when backing favorites coming off a loss.

This NHL betting strategy has also produced profits for NHL totals bettors who are playing the Under after a high-scoring opening game. 

Note: Stats as of April 11, 2021. Only two-game sets played in the same city have been used in this data, rare home-and-home sets and three-game series' have been omitted.  

NHL Moneyline Betting in two-game sets

Zig-zag theory is a popular betting strategy used in the NHL postseason to back teams coming off a loss. Due to the unique NHL schedule in 2021, the same betting system might work during the regular season. 

At first glance, the zig-zag theory doesn't seem to apply. The team that loses the first contest in a two-game series goes a middling 62-74 in the second game, losing +10.6 units on the moneyline. 

However, dig a little deeper and you'll notice that when teams are expected to win but end up losing that first game in a series, they win the next contest at an extremely high rate. 

When favorites lose the first outing of a two-game series, they bounce back with a commanding 29-12 record in the second contest for a profit of +9.2 units ($920 if you bet $100 per game) on the NHL moneyline. When home teams are favored in both contests and lose Game 1, they go 16-8 in Game 2 for a profit of +4.28 units. While away favorites go 13-4 following a defeat for +4.9 units. 

The lesson seems clear: when teams lose to an inferior opponent they make the necessary adjustments and come out extremely motivated for the rematch. When favorites lose the first game of a series, don't hesitate to pay the juice on them in the second meeting.

NHL Over/Under Totals in two-game sets

One common belief is that if two teams play a high-scoring game, they'll tighten up on defense the next time they hit the ice. However, when the first game of our sets went Over the total, the second game went 35-26-2 to the Under.

But when we chopped those numbers down even further it gets even more interesting. When Game 1 is expected to be low scoring (with a total of 5 or 5.5) and goes Over, the second game in the series goes 26-14-3 to the Under (65 percent).

Don't necessarily bet the Under simply because both teams lit the lamp the previous game. But if two teams are expected to have a low-scoring battle and end up cashing the Over in the first contest, it's likely they'll revert to their usual strong defensive play in the second game.

Where can I bet on the NHL?

You can bet on NHL odds at every online and casino sportsbook, including NHL moneylines, puck lines, Over/Under totals, and a ton of NHL prop odds. Head over to our best sportsbooks for NHL betting in your area.

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Rohit Ponnaiya
Betting Analyst

With a background playing soccer, rugby, and boxing, combined with a journalism degree, it's little surprise that Rohit gravitated towards the world of sports betting. He specializes in betting on UFC and college basketball, two sports where the eyeball test can tell you a lot more about matchups than any analytics. Rohit has years of experience handicapping NFL and NBA games as well as niche betting markets such as politics and Oscar odds. He's also the resident CFL expert and formerly hosted "The Chez and Ro Show" with former CFL star Davis Sanchez. You can catch Rohit breaking down every UFC event with Joe Osborne on "P4P Picks" on the Covers YouTube channel and he also has regular appearances on "Before You Bet" with Joe. In addition, he's a regular guest on "By The Book" on the Monumental Sports Network and makes guest appearances on VSIN's "The Handle" and CBS Sports. Rohit primarily makes his bets at bet365, which offers a wide variety of prop markets, but also has accounts at several others so he can shop around for the best prices. For Rohit, bankroll management is key. He believes you should never bet what you can't afford to lose and maximize those few betting opportunities where books misprice a line.

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