Red Wings vs Bruins Odds, Picks, and Predictions Tonight: Goalies Steal the Show At the Garden

An Atlantic Division tilt will kick off Saturday’s slate on ABC, with the first-place Boston Bruins hosting the seventh-place Detroit Red Wings. 

Low-scoring affairs are typically in-store when these two clubs square off, with six or fewer total goals scored in nine of the last 11 meetings.

Will we see another low-scoring affair, or can the goals pick up this time around? Find out in our free NHL picks and predictions for Red Wings vs. Bruins on Saturday, March 11.

Red Wings vs Bruins best odds

Red Wings vs Bruins picks and predictions

The Boston Bruins enter this contest amidst a flurry of low-scoring contests, with six or fewer total goals scored in eight of their last 12 games. The main reasons for these low-scoring affairs are Boston’s elite blue line and goaltending.

At 5-on-5, the Bruins rank third in the league in expected goals against per 60 minutes (xGA/60). Backing up this dominant defense is Vezina Trophy favorite Linus Ullmark, who is putting up record-setting results this season.

Through 39 appearances in the crease, Ullmark is 32-4-1 with a .938 save percentage (SV%) and 1.89 goals against average (GAA). Entering this matchup in particularly dominant form, he is 7-0 with a .945 SV% and 1.82 GAA over his last seven starts.

Based on his underlying metrics, regression is unlikely for Boston’s netminder. Among starting goaltenders, Ullmark ranks first in goals saved above expected per 60 minutes (GSAx/60) at 5-on-5.

Across the ice, goaltender Ville Husso is slated to start between the pipes for the Detroit Red Wings and should be a strong candidate to back. Through 47 starts this season, Husso is 24-16-6 with a .903 SV% and 2.93 GAA.

Over his three career appearances against the Bruins, Husso possesses a .908 SV% and 3.33 GAA. Making Husso’s life easier is the Wings’ underrated blue line.

At 5-on-5, Detroit ranks 13th in the league in xGA/60. However, the Wings’ biggest weakness is their extremely thin offense that ranks second-to-last in the league in expected goals for per 60 minutes (xGF/60) at 5-on-5.

This matchup features two strong goaltenders, two defenses that rank in the top half of the league in xGA/60 at 5-on-5, and two offenses that fail to crack the Top 15 in the league in xGF/60 at 5-on-5. Considering all of these variables, the Under is the play to make at 6.5.

My best bet: Under 6.5 (-125 at BetMGM)

Red Wings vs Bruins moneyline analysis

I would lean toward the Bruins in this contest but have absolutely no interest in laying -350 on the moneyline. The only way I would consider backing Boston in this contest is by taking its puck line at -140, but that is also too much juice for my liking.

Boston is better offensively, defensively, in net, and boasts home-ice advantage. Quite simply, the Bruins are the far superior team in every aspect of the game, so it makes sense why they are such heavy favorites against the seventh-place Red Wings.

However, the juice is not worth the squeeze. Husso is more than capable of stealing a game, and although he likely will not come out victorious in this matchup, it is not unreasonable to think he can keep this contest to a one-goal game.

It is also worth noting that Detroit has won seven of the last 11 meetings between these two clubs.

Red Wings vs Bruins Over/Under analysis

All the trends point to the Under in this contest. There have been six or fewer total goals scored in nine of the last 11 meetings between these two teams, in eight of Boston’s last 12 games, and in six of the Wings’ last 10.

Additionally, the makeup of each team also suggests taking the Under. At 5-on-5, both clubs rank in the top half of the league in xGA/60 but fail to crack the top-15 of the league in xGF/60.

Both goaltenders are also trustworthy, with each projected starter ranking in the top half among starting goaltenders in GSAx/60 at 5-on-5. Not only is Ullmark going nuclear this season, but his track record against Detroit is tremendous.

Through eight career starts against the Wings, Ullmark is 5-1-2 with a .936 SV% and 1.96 GAA. 

Red Wings vs Bruins betting trend to know

There have been six or fewer total goals scored in nine of the last 11 meetings between these two teams. Find more NHL betting trends for Red Wings vs Bruins.

Red Wings vs Bruins game info

Red Wings vs Bruins key injuries

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