Rangers vs Panthers Prop Picks and Best Bets: Lindgren Puts Body on the Line in Game 4

Find out why Josh Inglis' NHL prop picks believe the Panthers will continue to dominate puck possession, leading to plenty of action for Rangers defenseman Ryan Lindgren and goaltender Igor Shesterkin.

Josh Inglis - Betting Analyst at Covers.com
Josh Inglis • Betting Analyst
May 28, 2024 • 12:52 ET • 4 min read
NHL New York Rangers Ryan Lindgren
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

The New York Rangers have ripped off back-to-back overtime wins vs. the Florida Panthers in the Eastern Conference Finals, but can they gut out another road win and take a massive 3-1 series lead? 

In my Rangers vs. Panthers prop predictions, I'm betting on a trio of props that all revolve around the Panthers to continue to dominate the shot differential in the series.

These are my three best NHL picks for Rangers vs. Panthers props. For full-game analysis, check out Neil Parker's Rangers vs. Panthers predictions!

Rangers vs Panthers prop picks and best bets for May 28

Picks made on 5-28 at 12:30 p.m. ET.
Read full analysis of each pick.

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Today’s Rangers vs Panthers prop picks and best bets

Prop bet #1: Lindgren's line is too low

You won’t see shot attempts more one-sided than in Game 3 where the Florida Panthers had 71% of the shot attempts, which was a playoff high for tonight’s home team. The New York Rangers are the worst Corsi team in the playoffs by a far margin and following the win, they are unlikely to correct that heading into Game 4. Money Puck had the Panthers winning Game 3 at 82% of the time after 1,000 simulations.

That means more shots for the Cats and more blocked-shot opportunities for the Rangers, who had 37 blocked shots on Sunday. Jacob Trouba had nine by himself, but Trouba’s markets are too inflated at 3.5. However, Ryan Lindgren’s Over 1.5 blocks at -145 is worth the price.

He finished Game 3 with six blocks and saw over 23 minutes of time on ice. The majority of his shifts are starting in the defensive zone and he is on the first penalty-kill unit. He could also see more minutes on Tuesday if the Panthers try to get Trouba after a dirty hit on Evan Rodriguez. 

Florida will be shooting even more down 2-1 in the series and the longer the series goes, the more skaters are willing to step in front of the puck. Lindgren might be -145, but thanks to his defensive shifts and playing PK1, he ranks as my No. 2 shot-blocker on this lineup and is worth the 45 points on the low total. 

Ryan Lindgren prop: Over 1.5 blocked shots (-145 at BET99)

Prop bet #2: Verhaeghe stays busy

Sticking with the angle of Florida getting a ton of shots today, I’m hitting the Over on a 3.5 SOG prop after Carter Verhaeghe had 20 (!) shot attempts in Game 3. He has also been moved to a line with Aleksander Barkov and Sam Reinhart, which is a boost at home with the final change. 

It’s a big number but Florida had its best Corsi% game in the playoffs in the 5-4 loss and averaged an absurd 98.81 shot attempts/60. Verhaeghe was taking nearly 20% of every shot attempt and the move to Barkov is only going to give him better shooting opportunities after playing with Anton Lundell as his center early in the series. 

Verhaeghe leads all playoff skaters in shot attempts/60 at 25.1. He’s getting 32% of the ice time and his SOG/60 ranks fourth in the playoffs. He’s gone over this number in two of the three games in the series but facing a 2-1 series deficit would increase his already high shot rate. 

This is also the best price on the board at +105.

Carter Verhaeghe prop: Over 3.5 shots on goal (+105 at BET99)

Prop bet #3: Shesterkin sees more shots

Despite the insane shot volume and differential in the first game in Florida, Igor Shesterkin’s save prop is still at 29.5. He needed to make 33 saves in Game 3 and although he saw just 32 shots over the first 60 minutes, he also saw 98 shot attempts go his way over that time. 

The Rangers blocked a ton of shots on Sunday but Florida also had a five-shot second period. He should see 10+ shots per frame again tonight and possibly even more in the opening 20 minutes as Florida looks to set the tone. The last two games have also gone into overtime, so there’s some overtime equity here as well.

He is no threat of being pulled, which is always good. With the Panthers shuffling their lines, look for the home side to come out quick and get a ton of pucks on a goalie who is currently tied as the Conn Smythe odds favorite.

There is no excuse for the Panthers to come out flat and considering they’ve won the shot differential in each game of the series, look for the Cats to stack shots early and often.

Igor Shesterkin prop: Over 29.5 saves (-110 at BET99)

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