Today’s NHL Prop Picks and Best Bets: Green Apple for Guentzel

Prop bet #1: Moving Marner

With the Toronto Maple Leafs clinging to a playoff spot and losing two in a row over the weekend, some changes have been made in the Top 6, and that includes William Nylander swapping spots on the top line with Mitch Marner. 

#Leafs lines during practice Nov. 27/23

Knies-Matthews-Nylander
Bertuzzi-Tavares-Marner
Robertson-Domi-Jarnkrok
Gregor-Kampf-Reaves
McMann

Rielly-Brodie
Giordano-McCabe
Benoit-Timmins
Lagesson

Samsonov, Woll@BodogCA

— David Alter (@dalter) November 27, 2023

The move is an upgrade to the top line that also features Auston Matthews and Matthew Knies and a possible downgrade to the second line with John Tavares and Tyler Bertuzzi. There is not a lot of finish in that second line and Mitch Marner odds regarding Unders are attractive, as are Knies Overs. 

Marner is currently +120 for his Under 0.5 assists. He’s facing a team coming off a 5-0 shutout win and has held the Leafs to two or fewer goals in eight straight matchups dating back to the regular season of 2022-23. Florida has had its way with Toronto and a move to the second line without Nylander or Matthews is a tough spot for Marner and his assist hopes.  

If Marner struggles on the second line, bettors could even see his point total fall from 1.5 to 0.5. 

Mitch Marner prop: Under 0.5 assists (+120 at SIA)

Prop bet #2: Guentzel getting the bag

Jake Guentzel has a point in all but three games on the season and is averaging 1.27 points per game in November. He’ll get a good matchup today vs. the Predators who are still struggling to get elite goaltending and rank 29th in goals against/60 at even strength.

The Pittsburgh Penguins could also get Bryan Rust back which could help spread the offense out and keep the top line from getting matched up against. Rust’s participation would also boost the top power-play unit where Guentzel also plays.

The Pittsburgh winger leads the team in assists and in assists/60 through 20 games and is paying -110 to pick up a helper tonight on the road in Nashville. Guentzel is playing over 20 minutes a game and has an apple in 65% of his outings. The -110 price is also the best on the board.

He is one of a handful of contract players who is making a lot of noise this year and is looking to secure the bag, and I'll happily bet on the Jake Guentzel odds to record an assist.

Jake Guentzel prop: Over 0.5 assists (-110 at SIA)

Prop bet #3: Downtown Dougie

I don’t love playing solid juice, but when you can get a price that is substantially different from the market, that feeling can be swayed. 

Dougie Hamilton odds regarding his shots on goal are paying -165 for Over 2.5 shots on goal and there is a lot to like about this matchup... which might have a lot to do with different prices across the board. 

Hamilton ranks third on the team in shots attempts/60 behind players with a 4.5- and 3.5-SOG totals. He faces an Islanders team that quietly allows a ton of shots, including 35.4 per game in November (31st) and 35.2 on the season (31st). Hamilton also finished with seven shots on goal in the only meeting this year. 

I have him projected for 7.9 shot attempts alone today as no other D-man has better shot attempts/60 than Hamilton. It’s a great matchup and the price is hard to beat and should close even shorter. 

Dougie Hamilton prop: Over 2.5 shots on goal (-165 at SIA)