The Edmonton Oilers and Dallas Stars will meet in the Western Conference Final for the second consecutive spring, and the NHL odds have the two star-studded clubs carrying an even -110 vig on both sides of the series price.
Dallas holds home-ice advantage this time around, and the Stars have received an injection of star power from Stanley Cup winner Mikko Rantanen, in addition to the return of No. 1 defenseman Miro Heiskanen in Round 2.
Edmonton, meanwhile, has the one-two punch of Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl looking to return to the Stanley Cup Final for a second straight year. The go-to duo have plenty of unfinished business, too.
Here are my top NHL picks for the Oilers vs. Stars showdown in the 2025 Western Conference Final.
All odds courtesy of BET99.
Oilers vs Stars series odds
| Market | ||
|---|---|---|
 Oilers -110 |
To win |  Stars -110 |
| Oilers +1.5 (-200) |
Handicap | Stars -1.5 (+165) |
| OTB | Total games | OTB |
Talk about even steven.
BET99 has an identical vig attached to both the Edmonton Oilers and Dallas Stars for the Western Conference Final. While Dallas topped Edmonton in two of three regular-season meetings, it was the Oilers sending the Stars home in six postseason games last spring.
Oilers vs. Stars series preview
Oilers statistical breakdown
Edmonton has been a possession hog and dominated the goals and expected goals at five-on-five through two rounds. The Oilers sport a postseason-high 58.9 xGF% supported by a solid 54.2 Corsi For percentage.
The Oil have also allowed a miniscule 2.34 expected goals per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 – the fourth-fewest this postseason.
Of course, the Oilers have also been excellent with the man advantage with 25.0 power-play percentage, and I expect improvement to the unsustainably low 66.7 penalty-kill percentage. The Oil posted a middling 78.2 PK% during the regular season, after all.
Now, for the elephant in the room.
Edmonton hasn’t received consistent goaltending, and before Stuart Skinner shut out the Vegas Golden Knights in consecutive games, the Oilers had a, .865 team save percentage with -3.91 goals saved above expected.
The good news is the Oilers have proven capable of out scoring their goaltending woes, if needed.
Stars statistical breakdown
Dallas hasn’t been nearly as complete at 5-on-5 as the Oilers, and the Stars struggled without No. 1 defensemen Miro Heiskanen in the underlying metrics down the stretch, too.
Heiskanen is back, and he played more minutes in consecutive contests following his debut in Game 4 against the Winnipeg Jets.
The Finnish defenseman is so valuable to the Stars that it’s difficult to fairly assess the underlying numbers for Dallas – or the surface statistics for that matter.
Still, the Stars head into the Western Conference Final with an underwhelming 45.5 CF% and 49.0 xGF% and were outscored 22-20 at 5-on-5 through the first two rounds. Dallas has aced the special teams with a 30.8 PP% and 86.1 PK%, though.
Oilers vs Stars series props
Oilers vs Stars correct score odds
| Team | Win 4-0 | Win 4-1 | Win 4-2 | Win 4-3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oilers |
+1200 | +700 | +450 | +550 |
| Stars |
+1100 | +600 | +500 | +425 |
Pick: Oilers to win 4-2 (+450 at BET99)
A primary reason the odds in this series are so tight is because the Stars are being given a deserved goaltending advantage. Dallas No. 1 Jake Oettinger has been exceptional with a .918 save percentage and 10.15 goals saved above expected across 13 games, while Edmonton has an .886 team save percentage with just 0.08 GSAx.
I’m expecting Oettinger to struggle to maintain that level of play in the Western Conference Final. He posted a .909 SV% with just 18.53 GSAx across 58 games during the regular season, and the Oilers tilt the ice in their favor at 5-on-5, as highlighted.
Additionally, Skinner turned in consecutive shutouts to close out the Vegas Golden Knights, and he doesn’t need to be perfect. He just needs to be average behind the Edmonton attack.
A lot will be made of the scoring depth both teams bring to the lineup, with 16 Oilers scoring a goal and 17 with multiple points, while the Stars have 12 goal scorers and 16 multi-point players.
For me, this is a huge advantage for Edmonton because the McDavid-Draisaitl punch hits heavier than the starpower Dallas has jumping the boards. If the Oilers secondary scorers continue to chip in, it’ll be too much on top for the Stars to keep up with.
After all, No. 97 and No. 29 are going to have their say.
Oilers vs. Stars series points leader
Pick: Connor McDavid (-105 at BET99)
I think we’re landing an incredible number for Connor McDavid here. It might be Stars' Mikko Rantanen leading the postseason with 19 points, but the Finn has played three more games than McDavid.
Plus, 14 of Rantanen’s points came during a four-game stretch, and he’s also missed the scoresheet entirely in six of 13 playoff games.
McDavid is just far more consistent, with No. 97 recording a point in nine of 11 postseason games, including going good five times for a multi-point showing. Of course, the reigning Conn Smythe winner has 112 points across just 64 games across his past four trips to the postseason.
Oilers vs Stars series best bet
Pick: Oilers to win series (-110 at BET99)
The Oilers have won consecutive series without home-ice advantage and inconsistent goaltending. Neither the Los Angeles Kings or Vegas Golden Knights had an answer for the Edmonton offense, and the Oilers dominating 5-on-5 play has been a constant over the past three regular season and postseasons.
Additionally, unlike past trips to the playoffs, Edmonton is receiving a serious splash of secondary scoring this spring. It’s huge because Dallas also has a deep and well-rounded lineup jumping the boards.
The Stars also haven’t travelled well to start the playoffs with a 2-4 road record, while being outscored 22-9.
I think Edmonton can steal one in Dallas to wrap this series up in six in front of the Oil faithful at Rogers Place.
