Penguins vs Stars Odds, Picks, and Predictions Tonight: Hot Offenses Stay Hot in Dallas

We have a tremendous matchup in-store on ESPN tonight with the Central Division’s Dallas Stars hosting the Metropolitan Division’s Pittsburgh Penguins.

Pittsburgh enters this contest on the second half of a back-to-back following last night’s 5-2 victory over the Colorado Avalanche, while Dallas looks to rebound from Tuesday’s 5-4 overtime loss to the Seattle Kraken.

Will these teams find themselves involved in another high-scoring affair, or can the goaltending step up this time around? Find out in our free NHL picks and predictions for the Penguins vs Stars on Thursday, March 23.

Penguins vs Stars best odds

Penguins vs Stars picks and predictions

Not only were there nine goals scored in the Dallas Stars’ 5-4 loss to Seattle on Tuesday, but there have now been six or more total goals scored in 11 of their last 12 games. A big part of this recent burst of offensive production is the emergence of the Jamie Benn–Wyatt Johnston–Evgenii Dadonov line.

This trio has produced a 54% xGoals share through 117 minutes played together, which has solidified the forward group's production behind the stacked first line. At 5-on-5, Dallas ranks 13th in the league in expected goals per 60 minutes (xGF/60).

However, the Pittsburgh Penguins' offense is even more dangerous. This season, the Pens rank fifth in the league in xGF/60 at 5-on-5, which is a product of the usual suspects along with solid depth across the top six forwards.

The reason that Pittsburgh is still fighting for its playoff life is a thin blue line that bleeds high-danger scoring chances. At 5-on-5, the Penguins rank just 20th in the league in expected goals against per 60 minutes (xGA/60).

With this combination of elite offense and poor defense, it is not shocking there have now been six or more total goals scored in seven of Pittsburgh’s last nine games. Backing up this leaky defense is goaltender Casey DeSmith, who is slated to start between the pipes since Tristan Jarry got the nod last night against the Avs.

If he qualified, DeSmith would rank just 20th among starting goaltenders in goals saved above expected per 60 minutes (GSAx/60) at 5-on-5. Both of these offenses have been buzzing recently, and with two special team units that also rank Top 12 in power-play goals for, a minimum of six goals shouldn't be difficult to come by.

My best bet: Over 6 (-127 at BetRivers)

Penguins vs Stars moneyline analysis

I would lean toward the Stars moneyline, but not at the current price of –167. First of all, this game means much more to Pittsburgh than to Dallas.

According to MoneyPuck, a victory over the Stars would push the Penguins’ playoff probability up to 68% while a loss in regulation would drop it to 48%. On the other hand, Dallas is going to make the playoffs and is just worried about seeding.

Secondly, while the Stars are the more complete team and should be favored, -167 is too steep for a team that only possesses the advantage defensively and in net. Pittsburgh just hung five goals on a more defensively complete team in the Colorado Avalanche last night, and it could give this blue line a lot of problems as well despite the mighty Jake Oettinger slated to take the crease for Dallas in this contest.

Penguins vs Stars Over/Under analysis

Speaking of Oettinger, it is no secret that he is one of the future — even current — stars (pun intended) of the goaltending position. While no one should worry about Oettinger long term, the Penguins could take advantage of a netminder who enters this contest in poor form.

Allowing five goals in each of his last two starts, Oettinger possesses a .846 SV% over that stretch. Not only were there nine or more total goals scored in each of those two contests, but there have now been six or more total goals scored in nine of his last 10 starts.

There is no doubt this total can be grabbed at six because of Oettinger’s success this season, but that is not enough to outweigh the fact that these two offenses rank in the top half of the league in xGF/60 at 5-on-5 and enter this contest in strong form. Mix in Pittsburgh's leaky blue line, and six goals should be attainable.

Penguins vs Stars betting trend to know

There have been six or more total goals scored in 11 of the Stars’ last 12 games. Find more NHL betting trends for Penguins vs Stars.

Penguins vs Stars game info

Penguins vs Stars key injuries

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