Panthers vs Islanders Odds, Picks, and Predictions Tonight: Low Scoring on Long Island

There is an Eastern Conference tilt tonight, with the Metropolitan Division’s New York Islanders hosting the Atlantic Division’s Florida Panthers. In the final day prior to the holiday recess, each team will look to enter the break on a high note.

Will the Panthers take care of business as a small road favorite, or can the Islanders pull off the upset on home ice? 

Find out in our free NHL picks and predictions for Panthers vs. Islanders on Friday, December 23.

Panthers vs Islanders best odds

Panthers vs Islanders picks and predictions

The Panthers enter this matchup amid a stretch of low-scoring contests, as there have been six or fewer total goals scored in eight of their last 11 games. Part of the reason for this stretch is the play of goaltender Sergei Bobrovsky, who is expected to get the start in this contest.

After a brutal start to the year, the Panthers’ netminder has recently started to return to form. Over his last four starts, Bobrovsky boasts a .935 SV% and 2.02 GAA, with the Under cashing in all four of those games.

More impressively, Bobrovsky faced New Jersey (twice) and Pittsburgh during that stretch, two offenses far superior to the Islanders’. His strong goaltending should continue against New York, a team Bobrovsky has dominated throughout his career.

Across his last eight starts against the Islanders, he is 5-3 with an otherworldly .956 SV% and 1.26 GAA. There were six or fewer total goals scored in seven of those eight games.

While Florida’s offense deservedly receives most of the attention for this club, its defense also deserves some respect. At 5-on-5, the Panthers rank 11th in the league in expected goals against per 60 minutes (xGA/60).

This combination of strong defensive play with Bobrovsky’s history against the Islanders is bad news for New York’s offense as it ranks just 23rd in the league in expected goals for per 60 minutes (xGF/60) at 5-on-5. However, the Islanders can lean on goaltender Ilya Sorokin to help them out.

Despite entering this matchup on the second half of a back-to-back, Sorokin is likely to get the start in net once again due to the holiday recess approaching and the fact that backup goaltender Semyon Varlamov is still battling a lower-body injury. A likely Vezina Trophy candidate, at least through the first half of the season, Sorokin boasts a .924 SV% and 2.44 GAA.

Based on his metrics, regression should not be an issue for Sorokin as he ranks second among starting goaltenders in goals saved above expected per 60 minutes (GSAx/60) at 5-on-5. With Bobrovsky entering this matchup in great form and Sorokin likely going again for New York, this total is set too high at 6.5.

My best bet: Under 6.5 (-115 at BetMGM)

Panthers vs Islanders moneyline analysis

We are getting a good price on the Panthers, who hover around -120 on the moneyline. They boast the better offense and defense while Bobrovsky continues to turn his season around.

That being said, the following four words are too daunting to take that line: Ilya Sorokin at home. Despite entering this contest in the second half of a back-to-back, I want no part in fading Sorokin on home ice.

The guy is a Vezina Trophy favorite for a reason, he is right up there with the best goaltenders on the planet. Additionally, superstar Aleksander Barkov is going to miss this game for Florida with a lower-body injury, and his absence will certainly hurt the offense.

Panthers vs Islanders Over/Under analysis

There are two reasons that this total is set so high at 6.5. First of all, the Panthers’ offense is one of the best in hockey as they rank second in the league in xGF/60 at 5-on-5.

Secondly, Sorokin is facing a tough workload by starting on back-to-back days. However, Barkov’s absence is going to severely hurt a Florida offense that is only averaging 2.6 goals scored over its last seven games.

In regard to Sorokin, this game is not the worst of back-to-back circumstances. There was no traveling last night as the Islanders played against the Rangers, a game in which Sorokin faced 33 shots. 

He is one of the few goaltenders where starting on back-to-back days does not concern me, especially considering that the team did not have to travel and he did not face an absurd number of shots in last night’s game.

Panthers vs Islanders betting trend to know

There have been six or fewer total goals scored in nine of the last 10 meetings between these two clubs. Find more NHL betting trends for Panthers vs Islanders.

Panthers vs Islanders game info

Panthers vs Islanders key injuries

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