In a potential Finals showdown, the Toronto Maple Leafs will begin their six-game road trip in Colorado to take on an Avalanche team that boasts the league's best offense. Since November, these are the Top-2 teams in hockey by points percentage.
Can the Leafs stay competitive without star winger Mitch Marner? Can the Avs avenge an 8-3 December loss in Toronto on home ice tonight? Find out in our free NHL picks and predictions for Maple Leafs vs Avalanche.
Maple Leafs vs Avalanche odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
The Avalanche opened at -135 on the ML but have since moved to -160 thanks to COVID taking away a pair of Leafs. The Over is gaining steam after opening at 6.5 and could possibly reach 7. These teams met back in Toronto back on December 1 with the Leafs closing as -130 favorites, but they were healthier and facing a backup goalie.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right until puck drop and be sure to check out the full NHL odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.
Maple Leafs vs Avalanche predictions
- Prediction: Avalanche 3-way ML (+115)
- Prediction: Under 6.5 (+105)
- Best bet: Avalanche 3-way ML (+115)
Predictions made on 1/08/2022 at 10:00 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Maple Leafs vs Avalanche game info
• Location: Ball Arena, Denver, CO
• Date: Saturday, January 8, 2022
• Puck drop: 7:00 p.m. ET
• TV: Sportsnet, ALT, CBC
Maple Leafs vs Avalanche betting preview
Injuries
Maple Leafs: Mitch Marner F (Out), Pierre Engvall F (Out), Ondrej Kase F (Out).
Avalanche: Valeri Nichushkin F (Out), Jack Johnson D (Out), Jacob MacDonald D (Out).
Find our latest NHL injury reports.
Maple Leafs vs Avalanche head-to-head record (since 2017)
Maple Leafs: 3-4 SU, 27 goals for.
Avalanche: 4-3 SU, 25 goals for.
Betting trend to know
The Avalanche are 5-0 SU in their last five vs. the Eastern Conference. Find more NHL betting trends for Maple Leafs vs. Avalanche.
Maple Leafs vs Avalanche picks and predictions
Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.
Moneyline analysis
These two teams met just last month, with Toronto running up the score in an 8-3 victory as a -130 home ML favorite. Things will be different this time around, however, as the Avs won’t have fourth-string goaltender Jonas Johansson in net. The backup allowed all eight goals as the league’s highest-scoring team was without No. 1 goalie Darcy Kuemper who will get the start tonight. Nathan MacKinnon was also playing in his first game back from an injury.
Kuemper hasn’t been spectacular this season, but he has done enough to let this offense dominate games and rack up points and, simultaneously, wins. The break didn’t slow the Avs down, either, as the offense has potted 15 goals in its first three games back. The usual suspects have done the most damage as the first line of Gabriel Landeskog, MacKinnon and Mikko Rantanen has accumulated 18 points just itself while Nate Mac is riding a 12-game point streak that was capped with a five-point night in a 7-1 win over the Jets on Thursday.
The Leafs have been arguably the best team in a hyper-competitive Atlantic Division, but they've had a rather easy schedule of late and one that's consisted of minimal traveling. This upcoming six-game road trip will be the longest of their season and their recent games include several teams outside the Top 15 in points percentage.
This will be a tough task for a Toronto team that didn’t look particularly great against a Connor McDavid-less Edmonton team on Wednesday, despite winning 4-2. The Oilers were also without two other centermen and defender Tyson Barrie. The Leafs will be dealing with some absences of their own, too, as wingers Mitch Marner (COVID), Pierre Engvall (COVID) and Ondrej Kase (injury) will miss the contest.
Head coach Sheldon Keefe will have to juggle his lineup yet again, and as we saw in late December when the Leafs went 1-3 SU versus some high-quality teams, life without Marner is a bit of a struggle, as the winger is one of the biggest role-players on this team.
Jack Campbell will have to be near-perfect tonight to grab the victory. He’ll be facing an offense that’s scoring 4.80 goals per game on home ice this season and a Top-10 power play that scored three goals in its last game and has 13 PP goals over its last 10 games.
The Avs are 12-2-1 at home this year, are coming into this game with a ton of confidence after the 7-1 beatdown of the Jets and face a wounded Leafs team that hasn’t been on the road much of late. We’re on the Avalanche in regulation Saturday night at +115. This ML has already moved from -135 to -160.
Toronto closed at -130 at home in the last meeting, but they were healthier and facing a below-replacement-level goalie.
Prediction: Avalanche 3-way ML (+115)
Over/Under analysis
Saturday night’s game will feature a pair of offenses that average a combined 8.6 goals per game since November. This total opened at 6.5, leaning to the Over, and has since been bet up to -125 for the Over. This number could hit 7 at some point but will likely meet some resistance at that lofty number.
The love for the Over is warranted here, as Colorado home games are averaging 7.33 total goals per game, while the Leafs went into the Christmas break on a seven-game Over streak. But the Avalanche are one of the best defensive teams in the league and allow the sixth-fewest high-danger shots per game. If they can get some solid goaltending out of Kuemper, Toronto and its new forward lines that might feature two AHL players could struggle to do their share of the scoring.
Kuemper has allowed more than two goals just once in his last five starts and has posted much better numbers at home with a 2.31 GAA and a .926 SV%. The Leafs failed to get more than three goals past a struggling Mike Smith on Wednesday, and that was at full strength and at home.
Colorado is 20-6-4 to the Over on the year, which is the best Over percentage in hockey, but this is a game between arguably the two best teams in each conference and should be a tightly-played match from both sides.
The Avalanche have been held to under three goals just once in their last 13 games, but if any team is going to shut this lineup down it’s Campbell and the Leafs. Campbell had an average game in the 8-3 win over the Avs, where he finished with a -0.011 goals saved above expected. The Leafs were leaning on him heavily at that point and the league leader in GAA and SV% has had plenty of time to rest up heading into Saturday night’s game. Not too many goalies can shut down this offense, but if Campbell can keep the Avs under four goals, this Over will be in trouble. Campbell has allowed just three goals over his last three starts.
Both defenses are healthy, each likely starter is playing well, and we doubt this contest gets out of hand with how well both teams are playing. This feels like a 4-2 game to us.
The last meeting should not sway bettors away from the Under here, due to the very different circumstances. If you’re serious about getting on this Under, we suggest waiting to see where this total goes, because it’s trending towards the 7, which is almost unheard of. The Leafs were the best Under team in hockey for the majority of the season.
Prediction: Under 6.5 (+105)
Best bet
It’s tough not to bet on a team that is averaging 5.45 goals per game at home since November 1 and has a +33 goal differential over those 11 games. Also during that stretch, Colorado has yet to lose in regulation.
The goaltending has been improving, which was one of the team's fewest weak points and the top line is playing better than any other line in hockey right now. There is a reason Colorado is a heavy +275 favorite to capture the President’s Trophy despite having played just 30 games.
Sorry, Toronto fans. The loss of Marner is huge and this is not a great spot to bring on young players from the taxi squad. It’s the Avalanche in regulation for us Saturday night.
Pick: Avalanche 3-way ML +115
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