The Los Angeles Kings opened a three-game Western Canada road trip with a disappointing 4-2 loss to the Oilers last night, and now travel south through Alberta tonight to take on the Calgary Flames, who are riding a three-game winning streak and knocked off that same Edmonton team 6-3 on Saturday.
This could be a classic case of overvalued vs. undervalued, which has the books giving a very generous price on the home side. Calgary has a big schedule advantage and might be one of best teams to target down the stretch as it pushes for a playoff spot, while the hot-or-cold Kings sit just six points up on the No. 7 playoff spot.
I break down the NHL odds and offer my free NHL picks for Kings at Flames for Tuesday, February 27.
Kings vs Flames odds
Kings vs Flames predictions
The Calgary Flames rank second in hockey in expected goals/60 at 5-on-5 and third in expected goal differential since the beginning of the month. It's a big reason they're 7-3 SU in their last 10 and pushing for a playoff spot.
Ryan Huska’s team is rolling three potent lines right now and faces a streaky Los Angeles Kings side that played last night and took the loss in Edmonton. After a four-game winning streak, L.A. is 1-2 SU with the only win coming vs. the Ducks in a shootout.
The Kings closed as a -150 home favorite vs. the Flames before Christmas in a 5-3 win but since then, this is a Bottom 5 scoring offense that is 11-17 SU with a minus-10 goal differential since that last meeting. Considering the traveling back-to-back and Calgary being idle since Saturday, the Flames being priced at -115 seems long.
If home ice is worth 20-25 points (change of venue 40-50 points), that puts this game at a pick ‘em. But when I add the back-to-back, I have this priced closer to Calgary -130ish.
Cam Talbot is looking like the starter in net for the visitors. The L.A. goalie hasn’t played in three straight games but posted a pair of wins before the rest. Despite the recent success, he has not been good over his last 10 games with a 2-7 SU record, 3.82 GAA, and .882 save percentage. That includes a 1-6 SU mark on the road with a GAA north of 4.00. Facing a team generating a lot of expected goals at even strength is not a great matchup for Talbot.
Jacob Markstrom will likely get the nod for the Flames tonight which is great for Calgary backers. He sat out the 6-3 win on Saturday but is 6-2 SU over the last 30 days with a 2.14 GAA and a .932 save percentage. Those elite numbers have come against solid competition including the Bruins (2x), Jets, Wings, Rangers, Islanders, and Devils. Considering all the trade rumors, Markstrom is doing his best to stay put in Calgary, which sits five points out of a playoff spot.
The Kings have lost Viktor Arvidsson again and this is an offense that has the worst 5-on-5 shooting percentage this month, are scoring 2.56 goals per game in February (28th), and are scoring fewer even-strength goals per game than the Blackhawks. I’m playing the Flames on the moneyline up to -125 today.
I’m also taking Calgary forward Connor Zary for a point at +125. His line, centered by Nazem Kadri, has eight goals over the last nine games, his time on ice is up over his last six games, and he is getting more power-play time on the second unit. Winger Andrei Kuzmenko is still dealing with an illness and there’s a chance Zary joins the top unit tonight.
My best bet: Flames moneyline (-105 at SIA) and Connor Zary Over 0.5 points (+125 at SIA)
Kings vs Flames same-game parlay
Flames team total Over 3.5
Kings team total Under 2.5
Let's pump up this Calgary puckline, which is priced at +220. The Kings are struggling to score with 2.56 goals per game in February, which ranks 27th in hockey over that stretch. The Flames have one of the best expected goal differentials at 5-on-5 this month and are a motivated team with good goaltending that is also trying to dodge trade rumors.
L.A. is in a tough schedule spot after a loss in Edmonton last night, the final game of the road trip in Vancouver on Thursday, and then a five-game home trip following that. A 4-2 or 5-2 Calgary win would be nice here and there are many paths to that with Markstrom vs. Talbot and how these offenses are producing.
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Kings vs Flames moneyline and Over/Under analysis
The Flames opened at -110 at SIA but moved to -105 as of this morning, while many other books moved the other way to Flames -115. The total opened at 6 and has taken a little money to the Under.
These two teams met in L.A. back in mid-December and the Kings closed as -150 favorites with a total of 6. L.A. won 5-3 in a game that saw 10 total power plays. Considering the Kings are a different team now, Calgary has been better, and L.A. is on the second game in two nights, tonight’s moneyline should be closer to Calgary -130 in my opinion.
Both clubs enter tonight 7-3 SU over their last 10 games, while neither team has been profitable to the Over with L.A. going 2-7-1 O/U and Calgary 5-5 O/U.
The Flames have been one of the best at producing expected goals this month at 5-on-5 and the shooting percentage has been sustainable. They’ve also posted Top-5 numbers in save percentage at even strength.
This is important as the Kings have been shooting a lot of late. They aren’t creating a lot of high-danger opportunities, ranking 18th, but are winning the shot differential substatially. Sadly for them, Talbot has regressed heavily from his early-season form, which was expected.
The Kings also have the worst shooting percentage in February and although that will likely improve, tonight is a tough spot vs. the Flames and on the back-to-back. L.A. put up 40 shots last night in the 4-2 loss and failed to score on a 5-on-3 power play which changed the outcome of the game.
Calgary is playing with more momentum for a team that nobody thought would make the postseason after trading Elias Lindholm. The Flames have gone 6-3 SU following that trade and are winning despite the trade rumors.
L.A., on the other hand, is clinging to a postseason spot and this streaky team is just 10 games removed from a 2-14 SU stretch.
The L.A. offense is inconsistent while the Flames are starting to get an identity with their top-nine forwards. Calgary could be a problem for opponents down the stretch and they might be undervalued going forward.
I have no action on this total but think the Under closes shorter than 6 at -110.
Kings vs Flames betting trend to know
The Kings have only covered the 1P Puck Line in 18 of their last 41 away games (-11.95 Units / -19% ROI). Find more NHL betting trends for Kings vs. Flames.
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Kings vs Flames game info
| Location: | Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary, AB |
| Date: | Tuesday, February 27, 2024 |
| Puck drop: | 9:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | SNW, BSW |
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