Jets vs Maple Leafs Picks and Predictions: Matthews Set to Reach Milestone At Home

With 16 games to go for the Toronto Maple Leafs, finishing second in a hyper-competitive division would be a huge boost for the playoffs. That’s why getting two points tonight versus a tired Winnipeg Jets team at Scotiabank Arena is critical.

The Jets aren’t out of the playoff race but a loss tonight would certainly set them back.

Can Auston Matthews get his 50th goal tonight in front of the Toronto crowd? Can the Jets overcome a tough schedule spot after playing in Buffalo last night and playing without their leading goal-scorer in Kyle Connor (COVID)? Find out in our free NHL picks and predictions for Jets vs. Maple Leafs.

(Editor’s Note: On April 4th, sports betting in Ontario shifts from a grey market to a regulated market. Get all the information you need ahead of this change with our Ontario sports betting guide.)

Jets vs Maple Leafs odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

The Leafs opened as -200 favorites on the ML but have gained plenty of confidence and currently sit as -245 ML favorites. The total has also taken off after opening at 6.0 and now sits at 6.5 leaning to the Over. Winnipeg was a -120 home favorite in a December meeting that they won 6-3 but the Leafs were on the second game of a back-to-back.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right until puck drop and be sure to check out the full NHL odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.

Jets vs Maple Leafs predictions

• Prediction: Maple Leafs 3-way ML (-130)
• Prediction: Over 6.5 (-120)
• Best bet: Matthews anytime goal (-128)

Predictions made on 3/31/2022 at 9:31 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

Jets vs Maple Leafs game info

• Location: Scotiabank Arena, Toronto, ON 
• Date: Thursday, March 31, 2022
• Puck drop: 7:00 p.m. ET
• TV: Sportsnet

Jets vs Maple Leafs betting preview

Key injuries

Jets: Kyle Connor F (Out), Nate Schmidt D (Out).
Maple Leafs: Justin Holl D (Probable), Ilya Lyubushkin D (Doubtful), Jake Muzzin D (Out), Jack Campbell G (Out), Rasmus Sandin D (Out), Petr Mrazek G (Out), Ondrej Kase F (Out).

Find our latest NHL injury reports.

Jets vs Maple Leafs head-to-head record since 2021

Jets: 5-5 SU, 33 goals for.
Maple Leafs: 5-5 SU, 30 goals for.

Betting trend to know

The Over is 21-5 in the Maple Leafs’ last 26 when their opponent allows two goals or fewer in its previous game. Find more NHL betting trends for Jets vs. Maple Leafs.

Jets vs Maple Leafs picks and predictions

Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.

Moneyline analysis

The Leafs proved many wrong — including the betting market — Tuesday with a dominating 6-4 win in Boston. The Bruins came into that game as the hottest team in hockey but Toronto pulled out the victory, unfortunately coming at a cost.

Goalie Petr Mrazek exited early and he’s on the shelf while defenseman Ilya Lyubushkin (probable) and Justin Holl (doubtful) also left the game. Lyubushkin was on the ice for the morning skate today while Holl was not.

The Leafs are already thin on the blue line with Jake Muzzin and Rasmus Sandin out but they are surprisingly deep on defense and should be able to handle the loss of Lyubushikin especially if Holl dresses.

Rookie goalie Erik Kallgren will get the start for the home side. The Swedish goalie has made five NHL starts in his career and has won three of them including both of his home starts.

He blanked the Stars in his first home start and followed that up with a 34-save performance versus the Hurricanes. Kallgren has looked comfortable in some very difficult situations of late and he’ll be backed up by Michael Hutchinson.

Even if Kallgren gives up three goals, this Toronto offense is more than capable of winning a shootout. Auston Matthews is sitting at 49 goals heading into tonight’s game and has scored in nine of his last 10 games while leading the league in tallies. His linemate, Mitch Marner, is also finding his scoring touch with five goals over his last six and 28 on the season.

The Leafs hung six goals on a Bruins team that lead the league in goals against average in March before Tuesday’s game, and are scoring 3.96 goals per game over the last 60 days.

They're also getting some scoring from people not named Matthews and Marner of late showing just how deep this offense goes.

This offense will have a perfect matchup tonight against a Winnipeg team that nearly lost last night in Buffalo and will be without its best goal-scorer in Kyle Connor who is dealing with Covid. Defenseman, Nate Schmidt, is also out with the virus.

Connor Hellebuyck started last game, so the Leafs could possibly see Eric Comrie in net. The Jets rank in the bottom half of the league in GAA this season (and over the last three months) while Comrie has allowed three or more goals in six of his last eight starts. 

This is likely going to be another physical affair — especially with the Jets’ poor effort in Buffalo last night. The last meeting saw a ton of extracurriculars with a total of 19 power plays.

The Leafs are coming off a tough battle with the Bruins and won’t be pushed off the puck easily tonight while the power play has four goals over its last three games and faces a Winnipeg PK that sits with the seventh-worst efficiency in hockey. 

We missed the best price on the Bud's but we think the market is moving in the right direction. Matthews looking for his 50th goal should create a ton of emotion in Scotiabank while the schedule and injuries are helping the visitors.

Prediction: Maple Leafs 3-way moneyline (-130 at bet365)

Over/Under analysis

This total somehow opened at 6.0 which was quickly corrected in the market as the total currently sits at 6.5 (-120 to the Over). This price could still move 5 or 10 points to the Over but likely won’t hit 7.

Even if you missed the 6.0, this is still a favorable Over on the 6.5. The Leafs will be going with Erik Kallgren between the pipes and although he has played well in two home starts, there is much more tape on the rookie goalie who carried a 3.08 GAA in the AHL before coming up. He is not in the Leafs’ future in net and is likely the No. 4 goalie in the organization.

The Jets played last night with Hellebuyck stealing the show. He could start tonight but it’s a tough spot for him as the team likely got into Toronto late last night after having to cross the border and played to a shootout versus the Sabres. A possible Comrie vs. Kallgren matchup has our Over-appetites rumbling. 

Penalties could play a huge factor in this game as well. The last matchup featured 19 total power-play opportunities and the Leafs are dressing Wayne Simmonds and Kyle Clifford tonight for some added muscle.

Both power plays should get some chances and if the referees decide to keep this game in check, we could see plenty of 4-on-4 action as well. 

Both teams will be missing key pieces on the blue line which won’t help either goaltender. Connor’s absence is huge but the Jets still have plenty of firepower in Pierre-Luc Dubois, Nick Ehlers, Blake Wheeler, and Mark Scheifele.

It’s also a milestone night for Matthews who will be looking for goal No. 50. The last meeting saw nine goals while the 22-10-2 played to the Over in their last 34 games.

Prediction: Over 6.5 (-120 at bet365)

Best bet

The Matthews anytime goal prop is nearly an auto-bet at this point. Books are still giving this highly probable prop at a great price for bettors. He has 39 goals over his last 41 games and has scored in nine of 10. 

The top line is humming with Marner playing great hockey and this Toronto power play should get plenty of kicks at the can with how physical this game should be. At -128 to score, we’re riding this prop for what feels like the 10th straight game and we might be even more confident in it tonight with the chance at 50 in reach.

Pick: Auston Matthews anytime goal (-128)

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