Islanders vs Maple Leafs Odds, Picks, and Predictions Tonight: Toronto Will Bounce Back

The Maple Leafs stumbled on Saturday, but now they're well-positioned to rebound against the struggling Islanders. We dive into the matchup in our NHL picks, including the Leafs' clear goaltending advantage.

Last Updated: Jan 23, 2023 10:40 AM ET Read Time: 4 min
Auston Matthews Toronto Maple Leafs NHL
Photo By - Associated Press

The New York Islanders play the first of a two-game trip north of the border against the Toronto Maple Leafs at Scotiabank Arena on Monday night.

This contest is the second of three regular-season meetings between the teams. The Islanders picked up a 3-2 overtime win in Toronto on November 21.

New York lost 5-2 at home to the Carolina Hurricanes on Saturday, while the Montreal Canadiens tripped up the Leafs 3-2 in overtime that same night.

Can the Islanders snap their skid with a road win in Toronto? Or will the Maple Leafs get back on track? Let's dive in with our NHL picks and predictions for the Islanders vs. Maple Leafs matchup on Monday, January 23.

Islanders vs Maple Leafs best odds

Islanders vs Maple Leafs picks and predictions

The Islanders are three points out of a playoff spot in the Eastern Conference with 34 games left. The Maple Leafs currently sit in second place in the Atlantic Division behind the Boston Bruins. They've earned the third-most points in the Eastern Conference.

The Islanders are in a nosedive lately, going 0-2-2 across their past four games while also winning just once in the team's past nine.

Meanwhile, the Leafs have been a lot more consistent recently, going 5-1-1 across their last seven outings. Toronto has picked up at least one point in 12 of the club's previous 14 games.

The Islanders are projected to start Ilya Sorokin (15-15-4, 2.37 GAA, .924 SV%, 3 SO). The Maple Leafs are expected to counter with Ilya Samsonov (14-4-2, 2.22 GAA, .919 SV%, 2 SO) over Matt Murray (11-5-2, 2.73 GAA, .911 SV%, 1 SO).

Sorokin has hit the skids lately, allowing 11 goals over his past three starts while posting a mediocre .895 SV% with a pair of overtime losses.

Samsonov was on the short end of the setback against the Habs. However, he's given up just eight goals across his past four starts and five appearances, going 3-1-1 with a 1.71 GAA and .936 SV%.

Take the Maple Leafs to bounce back at home on the puck line at plus money. Toronto's goaltending has been pretty sharp lately, while the Islanders are really struggling.

My best bet: Maple Leafs -1.5 (+113 at Sports Interaction)

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Islanders vs Maple Leafs spread analysis

The Islanders have not only failed to win over their last four games, but New York has won just once in its previous seven road outings.

Additionally, New York is 4-11 in its past 15 games against Atlantic Division teams. The club has been victorious in just one of the previous six outings when playing on a day of rest. The Islanders are also 0-4 in their past four games against Eastern Conference foes.

Meanwhile, the Maple Leafs have been a lot more consistent recently, winning 22 of the past 28 games against Metropolitan Division opponents. They've also compiled a 48-17 record in the past 65 games on home ice, a winning percentage of .738 during the impressive span.

And the arrow strongly points at the Buds when looking at the head-to-head trends, too. New York is 1-4 in the past five meetings in the series, and the team is just 2-6 over its previous eight trips to Toronto. The favorite is also an impressive 16-5 in the past 21 meetings overall.

Playing the moneyline is quite expensive, costing you more than two times your potential return at every shop. The Leafs are a decent play on the puck line, as Toronto has covered in six of the past 11 games on home ice as a favorite.

Islanders vs Maple Leafs Over/Under analysis

The trends heavily favor playing the Under, making for a nice parlay opportunity with the Leafs on the puck line.

The Under is 9-3 in the Islanders' past 12 games and 4-1 over the team's previous five contests on the road. Additionally, the Under is 7-2-1 in New York's last 10 games against teams with a winning overall record.

The Under is 18-7-3 over the Islanders' past 28 games against Atlantic Division opponents. It's also 10-4 in the team's last 14 outings when playing on a day of rest.

The Leafs have been on a bit of an Under run lately, too. It's cashed in four of the team's past five games on home ice, while also going 4-1 in the club's previous five when on a day of rest.

The Under is 4-0-1 in the past five games in this series, and 3-0-1 in the last four clashes between the two teams at Scotiabank Arena.

Islanders vs Maple Leafs betting trend to know

The favorite has taken 16 of the past 21 matchups in this series, while the Leafs are 6-2 over the previous eight meetings at home against the Islanders. Find more NHL betting trends for Islanders vs Maple Leafs.

Islanders vs Maple Leafs game info

Location: Scotiabank Arena, Toronto, ON
Date: Monday, January 23, 2023
Puck drop: 7:00 p.m. ET
TV: Sportsnet Ontario, MSGSN

Islanders vs Maple Leafs key injuries

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