Golden Knights vs Maple Leafs Picks and Predictions: Nipping the Buds

The Toronto Maple Leafs will look to make it three wins a row Tuesday night as they welcome the Vegas Golden Knights to Scotiabank Arena.

The Golden Knights have ripped off three wins in a row themselves, after a rough start to the season with pile of injuries. The Leafs are still heavy favorites (again) after opening at -172 and moving to -192. The total also has moved; opening at 6 and is now sitting at 5.5.

Here are our free NHL betting picks and predictions for Golden Knights vs. Maple Leafs for Tuesday, November 2.

Golden Knights vs Maple Leafs odds

Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.

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Golden Knights vs Maple Leafs picks

• Golden Knights ML (+175)
• Over 5.5 (-120)

Picks made on 11/02/2021 at 1:10 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Golden Knights vs Maple Leafs game info

• Location: Scotiabank Arena, Toronto, ON
• Date: Tuesday, November 2, 2021
• Puck drop: 7:00 p.m. ET
• TV: TSN4, ATTSN-RM

Golden Knights vs Maple Leafs betting preview

Injuries

Golden Knights: Max Pacioretty F (Out), Nolan Patrick F (Out), Mark Stone F (Out), William Karlsson F (Out), Alex Tuch F (Out), Zach Whitecloud D (Out), Mattias Janmark F (Out).

Maple Leafs: Ilya Mikheyev F (Out).
Find our latest NHL injury reports.

Golden Knights vs Maple Leafs head-to-head record (2017-19)

Golden Knights: 2-4 SU, 18 goals for.
Maple Leafs: 4-2 SU, 20 goals for.

Betting trend to know

The Golden Knights are 4-0 in their last four games as an underdog. Find more NHL betting trends for Golden Knights vs. Maple Leafs.

Golden Knights vs Maple Leafs picks and predictions

Golden Knights ML (+175)

The Vegas Golden Knights head to Toronto for just the fourth time in the team’s history. The Golden Knights have had to battle a plethora of injuries to key players early this season, but having ripped off three straight wins over the Avalanche, Stars and Ducks, they have righted the ship after starting the season 1-4 SU.

Missing top-six forwards like Max Pacioretty, Mark Stone and William Karlsson is not an ideal lineup for Peter DeBoer’s group, but picking up three wins in four days before heading out on a four-game Canadian road trip is big. Even without a handful of key players, this is still the best team the Leafs have likely seen at home this season.

Outside of the Carolina Hurricanes, the Leafs haven’t played any Top-10 teams, as they've seen the Canadiens, Senators (twice), Rangers, Sharks, Red Wings and short-handed Penguins and Blackhawks teams. Of those eight games, Toronto is 4-4 SU and has won by more than one goal just once. A win may be a win, but when a team averages -215 on the moneyline, you'd like a little more reassurance.

The Leafs have struggled on the backend this season, which isn’t a huge surprise without a bonafide top-tier defenseman. Second-line defenseman Justin Holl has fallen out of favor and has been replaced by Timothy Liljgren, who has had chances in the lineup before, but the 22-year-old hasn’t stuck. The addition of Liljgren has coach Sheldon Keefe experimenting with new defense pairings, which may be why the team gave up four goals to the Red Wings on Sunday with just 2.44 goals against expected.

The Leafs’ power play got a goal versus Detroit but is still a bottom-10 unit in the league, while the penalty kill has been average at an 82.8 success rate. This team still leads the league in turnovers per game and is third in expected goals against. 

Jack Campbell will start for Toronto and he's capable of stealing games, but he's allowed 10 goals in his last three starts and will likely face another capable goalie in Vegas’ Robin Lehner.

Lehner held the Avs to a single goal in a 3-1 win on October 26 and played well versus the Ducks for two periods before his team hung him out to dry in a 5-4 shootout win. The Leafs have losses against Adin Hill, Anton Forsberg, Igor Shesterkin, Tristan Jarry and Frederik Andersen while picking up victories against some average-or-worse netminders in Jake Allen, Thomas Greiss, Anton Forsberg and Kevin Lankinen. The Buds have yet to beat a decent goalie this season.

Vegas may be thin with injuries, but this was always a deep team. It’s hard to find a time when the Knights were +175 underdogs coming in on full rest. Is Toronto the most overvalued team in hockey? Possibly. Are the Leafs starting to find an offensive touch? Absolutely. Should they be -213 favorites versus the Knights? NO.

Over 5.5 (-120)

Combined, both clubs have started the year 7-10 O/U, but both teams are coming off a pair of high-scoring games that were littered with defensive miscues. The Knights had a 4-1 lead midway through the third before allowing three late goals to the Ducks to force overtime, while the Leafs took a 5-4 win over the Wings that saw Detroit finish with 2.44 expected goals for.

Both teams rank in the bottom-three in expected goals against at 5-on-5, while the Leafs lead the league in expected goals for and Vegas sits seventh. Both these teams are playing loose on the backend but have been creating plenty of opportunities on the offensive side of things. Both starting goalies have shown flashes of their top-tier ability this season, but also don't come into Tuesday’s match in the best form.

For the Leafs, the newly minted Kerfoot-Tavares-Marner line is coming off a four-goal outing while the top line of Bunting-Matthews-Nylander finished with the best-expected goal output on Sunday. The Leafs have taken a ton of heat for underperforming, but they’ve scored three or more goals in back-to-back games for the first time this season and look to be turning a corner when it comes to goal production.

We have yet to see a total with the Leafs at 5.5 this season and perhaps this number is coming a couple of games too late. Even at -120, this is still an Over for us as we don’t trust the new defensive pairings for Toronto and think both offenses have a chance at three goals with Toronto still committing a ton of turnovers and Vegas allowing the third-most shots against in the league. 

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