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Flames vs Oilers Game 4 Picks and Predictions: Oil Rush Continues Tuesday Night

Connor McDavid is simply untouchable right now, but the price on his points market might be as well. With the Oilers lighting up the Flames, our NHL betting picks are targeting another Edmonton stud as the best value to keep snuffing Calgary's season.

Last Updated: May 24, 2022 12:13 PM ET Read Time: 4 min

Connor McDavid is doing things nobody in hockey has ever done in the playoffs, and with another epic performance Tuesday at home, he and the Edmonton Oilers could push the Calgary Flames to the brink of elimination.

McDavid has nine multi-point games through 10 playoff contests, entering Game 4 tonight with the Oilers leading the Flames two games to one in the series.

Does Darryl Sutter have an answer for the likely Hart winner or do the Flames have a little more fight in them as slight +100 road dogs? Find out in our free NHL picks and predictions for Flames vs. Oilers on May 24. 

Flames vs Oilers Game 4 odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

Game 4 opened as a pick ‘em at some books but the Oilers are starting to gain some traction in the market and have moved as short as -125 as of Tuesday morning. The Game 4 line is a bit of an adjustment as the Oilers closed as -105 home dogs for Game 3 and -170 road dogs in the opener. We usually allot 40 points for a change of venue in a playoff series.

The total sits at 6.5 and leans slightly to Under. Game 3 closed Over 6.5 at -130, so there is still room for this total to grow today prior to puck drop. 

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right until puck drop and be sure to check out the full NHL odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.

Flames vs Oilers Game 4 predictions

Predictions made on 5/24/2022 at 7:30 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

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Flames vs Oilers Game 4 info

Location: Rogers Place, Edmonton, AB
Date: Tuesday, May 24, 2022
Puck drop: 9:30 p.m. ET
TV: CBC

Flames vs Oilers series odds (EDM leads 2-1)

Flames: +160
Oilers: -180

Flames vs Oilers Game 4 betting preview

Key injuries

Flames: Christopher Tanev D (Questionable).
Oilers: Kyle Turris F (Out).
Find our latest NHL injury reports.

Flames vs Oilers head-to-head record in series

Flames: 1-2 SU, 13 goals for.
Oilers: 2-1 SU, 15 goals for.

Betting trend to know

The home team is 7-1 SU in the last eight meetings. Find more NHL betting trends for Flames vs. Oilers.

Flames vs Oilers Game 4 picks and predictions

Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.

Moneyline analysis

The Edmonton Oilers head into Game 4 Tuesday night with a 2-1 series lead in their second-round series with provincial rivals the Calgary Flames. Calgary came in as the favorite in the series but Edmonton has had zero issues scoring, with 15 goals through three games while also showing that no deficit is too large.

Even in their 9-6 loss in Game 1, Edmonton rallied from a 6-2 deficit to tie the game at six before ultimately losing. The Oilers also came back in Game 2 after trailing 3-1 in the second period. It's safe to say that the Oilers aren't lacking confidence.

Game 3 could have been a bloodbath if not for Jacob Markstrom’s 21-save first period, but the Oilers still won convincingly thanks to an Evander Kane natural hat-trick. But another has given Calgary the biggest problems and Connor McDavid may be living rent-free in the Flames’ heads. 

“They have one player that plays half the game and is playing some great hockey right now.” Calgary’s Matthew Tkachuk was quoted after Game 3’s loss. “We’ve let one guy beat us a few nights now. Back to the drawing board and figure out a way to stop him next game.”

Through 10 playoff games, McDavid has nine multi-point games while piling up nine points in the second-round series alone. The best player in the world has turned it up a notch and there just isn’t enough talent on the Flames to slow him down, especially with the Oilers getting the last change. 

McDavid’s dominance has led to a handful of other Oilers finding success in this series, including Zach Hyman (four goals), Evander Kane (four points), and Leon Draisaitl (10 points). Markstrom has played decently, but his team has consistently hung him out to dry and the players know it.

“We all know that we weren’t good enough in front of him,” Calgary defenseman Rasmus Andersson added after the Game 3 loss. “We left him out to dry. How many odd-man rushes did they have today, especially in the second period? And they capitalized. It just wasn’t good enough, and it cost us.” 

The Oilers have scored 15 goals through three games and have done so with a power play that has gone just 1-for-15 in the series. Edmonton closed as the underdog (-105) in Game 3 but the oddsmakers have had a slight change of mind after its most dominant game on Sunday. The 15-point adjustment at some books might seem like an overreaction, but with how good 97 is playing right now, it's worth it in our minds. 

The Flames haven't shown they can play from behind in this series and Mike Smith, who was hit hard in Game 3 and managed to come back, should continue to keep the Oilers in the series. Edmonton has outscored its opponents 19-10 so far at home in the postseason and with the Oilers getting the last change tonight, McDavid will get all the advantageous matchups he can handle. If the Oilers’ PP gets going, it could be a quick battle of Alberta for the No. 2-seeded Flames.

PredictionOilers moneyline (-115 at Coolbet)

Over/Under analysis

Combined, both clubs are 9-11 O/U in the postseason. The Over hit in Games 1 and 2, while Smith and Markstrom certainly did their share in keeping Game 3 below seven goals. However, there are some question marks for both tenders coming into tonight.

Smith got ran/hit by Milan Lucic in the third period on Sunday which likely scared many in Edmonton as the 40-year goalie has battled a few injuries this season. Smith has seen a lot of shots in the postseason and leads the playoffs in shots faced/60 at 38. If he isn’t at the top of his game tonight, he could give up three or more goals, which is something he's done in five of his 10 postseason games.

Markstrom headed into the second round with a 1.53 GAA and a .933 SV% but accumulated those numbers versus the worst offensive team in the playoffs in the Dallas Stars. Over the series’ first three games with Edmonton, the Vezina finalist has a 4.40 GAA and a .869 SV%. The Swedish goalie also struggled versus his provincial rivals during the regular season, as he went 2-2 SU with a 3.54 GAA and a sub-.900 SV%. 

This series has seen a total of 28 goals and, yes, 16 of those were scored in Game 1, but the majority of the scoring has been pretty repeatable as the 5-on-5 production has been heavy.

Combined, both clubs are just 3-for-27 on the power play, meaning 89% of the series’ goals have come at even strength, on the penalty kill, or into the empty net.

McDavid is unstoppable, with nine points in the series alone, while Hyman, Kane, and Draisaitl have totaled 19 points in the series’ first three games. Calgary is scrambling, and if they want to avoid elimination, they’ll have to match the Edmonton offense. 

The Flames are heavily reliant on the Tkachuk-Lindholm-Gaudreau line and so far in the series, they’ve combined for 12 points through three games. Edmonton is anything but a shutdown team and gives up a ton of shots. Defensively, the Oilers are exploitable and it will likely take another 40-save Smith performance to keep the Flames Under their team total.

The Over has gone 5-2 in the last seven meetings, and with the goalie question marks and McDavid setting playoff records, we can’t comfortably hit this Under. Coming off the series’ first Under is also a great spot here for goals.

PredictionOver 6.5 (-105 at bet365)

Best bet

We are seeing the shortest point total ever in the NHL tonight with McDavid’s Over 1.5 total points market at -175. He has a multi-point game in nine of his 10 playoff games but at that price, we’re staying away. We are, however, going to hit his linemate Leon Draisaitl for two or more points at plus money.

The first-line center is coming off a four-assist game, has tallied an amazing 10 points in the series, and has at least three points in each of the series’ first three games. The Kane-Draisaitl-McDavid line is getting a ton of minutes at 5-on-5 and the center is playing over 22 minutes per game in the series.

Edmonton hasn’t struggled to score against the usually-stingy Flames and if the books think McDavid to get two or more points is 64% probable, then Draisaitl has to be closer to roughly 50% or better to tag along for the ride. He has 10 points in the series with zero of those coming with the man advantage.

Pick: Leon Draisaitl Over 1.5 points (+126 at DraftKings)

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