The Washington Capitals will try to continue their rise up the Metropolitan Division standings when they visit the last-place Columbus Blue Jackets tonight.
The Capitals are riding an eight-game point streak despite losing 5-4 in overtime to the Buffalo Sabres on Tuesday. Alex Ovechkin continues to dominate after passing Gordie Howe for second place on the NHL all-time goals list, hitting the net six times in his last three games.
Ovechkin will have the opportunity to add to that tally against perhaps the worst defensive team in the Eastern Conference. We’ll break down whether he can continue to find goals in our NHL betting picks and predictions for Capitals vs. Blue Jackets.
Capitals vs Blue Jackets best odds
Capitals vs Blue Jackets picks and predictions
I’m sure you’re already aware of this, but Alex Ovechkin might just be the best pure goalscorer in NHL history. Ovechkin has scored 808 times in his 18-year career and did that in one of the lowest-scoring eras in NHL history. After his recent outburst, he now has 28 goals in his age-37 season and is 86 tallies behind Wayne Gretzky's all-time record of 894.
Ovechkin can score against anyone, but he’ll likely chase down the record over the next two or three seasons by feasting on the worst defenses in the NHL. He’s shown that this year, scoring a hat trick against the Chicago Blackhawks, three goals in two games against the Montreal Canadiens, and four goals in two outings against the Vancouver Canucks.
The Blue Jackets fit right in with that list. Columbus is allowing 3.92 goals per game, the second-worst mark in the NHL, and has allowed four or more goals in seven of its past 10.
It doesn’t take an expert to figure out that this is a game in which Ovechkin has a good chance of finding the net at least once. Oddsmakers know that too, so they’ve shortened the odds on Ovechkin to score tonight, with several books offering just -110 on the Russian to tally a goal at some point tonight.
The real question is whether that number is nearly short enough. Ovechkin has scored 28 goals in 40 games and has scored in 19 of those games. As of late, those numbers have been even better, with 15 goals in 13 games while scoring in eight of those contests.
As a baseline, the overall numbers this year make -110 seem about right, while the recent trends make Ovechkin look like a slightly more likely scorer tonight. But the real factor that has me all over this prop bet is the opponent. The Blue Jackets can’t stop anyone from scoring, let alone Ovechkin and the Capitals. Columbus will start Elvis Merzlikins, who has a 4.68 goals-against average and .864 save percentage this season.
It’s rarely easy to take less than even money on a goal-scoring prop, but Ovechkin is primed to get at least one goal in tonight’s game. I’m backing him to continue his outstanding play tonight and score against Columbus.
My best bet: Alex Ovechkin anytime goalscorer (-110)
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Capitals vs Blue Jackets moneyline analysis
Washington has been a significant favorite from the jump, with sites opening the moneyline for tonight’s game at anywhere from Capitals -165 to -185. That number has lengthened over the last day, and sits at around Washington -200, with numbers as good as -190 still out there at the time of this writing. Those betting on the Blue Jackets can find lines as long as +175 by shopping around.
The Capitals have been on fire over the past few weeks, going 11-2-1 in their last 14 games. That surge has moved Washington into fourth place in the Metropolitan Division. Meanwhile, Columbus is just 2-8 over its last 10 and has just 24 points on the year.
The Blue Jackets have been a bit tougher at home, though they’re still not great in their own building. Columbus is 9-11-0-1 this season in their own building, while Washington has been essentially a .500 team on the road.
However, I think the Capitals have a significant advantage tonight. That’s not just because they’ve been playing so well, but also due to the struggling Merzlikins minding the net for Columbus. This is a rough matchup for Merzlikins, as Ovechkin and the Capitals have scored three or more goals in 13 of their last 14 games. I’m taking Washington with the best odds I can find.
Capitals vs Blue Jackets Over/Under analysis
Tonight’s total opened at 6 but has since moved up to 6.5 at most books, likely on the news that Merzlikins is getting the start for Columbus. The Under is slightly favored at that number, however, with most sites offering around +100 on Over 6.5, and -120 on the Under.
For the season, Washington has largely played to the Under, with the Over going just 17-22 on the season. However, the Caps have hit the Over in three straight games, including an 11-goal outburst in a 9-2 win over Montreal on New Year’s Eve.
The Blue Jackets have played to the Under in seven of their last nine games. That’s mostly due to the faltering Columbus offense, which has scored three or more goals only twice during the same span. That’s unlikely to change against Washington goaltender Darcy Kuemper, who has held opponents to 2.58 goals per game this season.
It’s easy to think the Over is the play here due to Merzlikins’ struggles this season. However, we may be banking on the Capitals to score five or even six goals to get above a total of 6.5. I think the smart play is the Under, with Washington likely to do the bulk of the scoring in a game that ends at five or six goals.
Capitals vs Blue Jackets betting trend to know
The Capitals are 6-0 straight up in their last six road games. Find more NHL betting trends for Capitals vs Blue Jackets.
Capitals vs Blue Jackets game info
| Location: | Nationwide Arena, Columbus, OH |
| Date: | Thursday, January 5, 2023 |
| Puck drop: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN |
