The Florida Panthers will look to repeat as champions against the same team they bested a season ago.
My NHL picks suggest that things will play out differently this time, with the Edmonton Oilers securing their first Stanley Cup victory in over 30 years.
Panthers vs Oilers series odds
| Market | ||
|---|---|---|
 +100 |
To win |  -120 |
| +1.5 (-200) |
Handicap | -1.5 (+165) |
| Over 5.5 (-238) | Total games | Under 5.5 (+175) |
The Edmonton Oilers are favored to get revenge on the Florida Panthers this time around, with -120 odds implying a 54.6% chance of the Stanley Cup returning to Canada.
Last year’s matchup lasted seven games. Another long series is expected, with the Over of 5.5 games attached to a -238 price.
Panthers vs Oilers series preview
Panthers vs Oilers statistical breakdown
Playing in different conferences, the Panthers and Oilers only faced one another twice during the regular season.
Each matchup was decided by just one goal, and the Panthers outscored the Oilers 5-2 in the third period over those matchups.
The games were close analytically, especially during 5-on-5 play. Edmonton earned a 41-39 advantage in the shot department while Florida won the scoring chance battle 31-29 over the two games. There wasn’t much separating the two.
The same can be said of the numbers they’ve put forth en route to the Stanley Cup Final. The Oilers scored 65 goals and controlled 54.43% of the expected goal share across all situations.
Each team has largely defended well, but it's the offenses that have truly separated them from the pack.
Of the eight teams to play at least two rounds, the Carolina Hurricanes were the closest team to them in scoring rate. They averaged only 2.78 goals per 60 minutes, which is more than a full goal shy of both teams.
During last year’s Stanley Cup Final, the victor scored at least four goals in five of the seven games.
Panthers vs Oilers series props
Panthers vs Oilers correct score odds
| Team | Win 4-0 | Win 4-1 | Win 4-2 | Win 4-3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Panthers |
+1300 | +600 | +425 | +500 |
| Oilers |
+1200 | +550 | +425 | +425 |
Pick: Oilers to win 4-3 (+425 at Sports Interaction)
The Panthers took out the Oilers in seven games last year, closing a hard-fought series on home ice with a win in front of their fans. I think the Oilers are about to return the favor.
The Panthers are the better defensive team. They are the deeper team. With Zach Hyman out for the season, they're also the healthier team. I don’t think it’ll matter.
Put simply, the Panthers don’t have Connor McDavid or Leon Draisaitl. They are the best 1-2 punch in the world, and that’s been evident during the playoffs.
They’ve done a lot of their damage at 5-on-5 as well. McDavid ranks first in playoff production while Draisaitl is tied for third — and they often play on separate lines.
It's so difficult to stop one of those players on any given night, let alone both. As good as the Panthers are defensively, I don’t think there's an answer for McDavid or Draisaitl when they’re at this level.
They have all the talent in the world and seem to have a defiance in their game that they simply won’t be denied again.
Having home ice for the series is also an underrated factor. The Oilers have steamrolled opponents in Edmonton all playoffs long, owning a 6-1 record and a whopping +16 goal differential through seven home games.
Kris Knoblauch will have the ability to get the matchups he wants more often than not, which should result in more time for McDavid and/or Draisaitl away from the Aleksander Barkov matchup.
Panthers vs Oilers total game odds
Pick: Over 5.5 games (-238 at Sports Interaction)
This line is heavily juiced and for good reason. Both teams have won more than 70% of their games during the playoffs and, as alluded to, have scored goals at will, albeit in much different ways.
Edmonton has relied on unmatched star power to fill the net while Florida has taken a more balanced approach offensively, with its third line often making the difference.
Given how dominant both teams have been, it feels almost impossible for either side to win in four or five games.
Panthers vs Oilers top goalscorer
Pick: Connor McDavid (+550 at Sports Interaction)
McDavid is third on his own team in goals during the playoffs, and yet I still think there's plenty of meat on the bone at this price.
He leads all players in shot attempts (102), scoring chances (72), shots on goal (59), and expected goals (9.06) through three rounds. In many cases, nobody's even close to him
McDavid is determined to lead his team to the Stanley Cup this time around, and if that means taking more opportunities for himself, he’s clearly willing to do it.
He finally started to see the fruits of his labors against the Stars, scoring three goals over his final three games against them.
Panthers vs Oilers series best bet
Pick: Connor McDavid points leader (+120 at Sports Interaction)
The Panthers could win this series by multiple games, and I’d still like McDavid’s chances of serving as the pace car in terms of points.
McDavid has logged 372 minutes of ice in the playoffs. Leon Draisaitl is the closest Oilers forward to him at 348, while Aleksander Barkov (329) is the only Panthers forward within 60 minutes of McDavid.
Put simply, the most talented player in the world is also playing the most minutes at his position. The talent gap and opportunity gap give him a significant advantage over other players in this series.
There’s a reason McDavid leads all Panthers in scoring by at least nine points even though Florida has scored more playoff goals. He’s the best player and, again, he’s getting the best usage.
Since I’m backing the Oilers to raise the Stanley Cup, it should be no surprise that I have McDavid leading the way in points. Again, he has a good shot even if the Panthers repeat as champions.
