After a shocking win over team USA in the quarterfinals as +570 dogs, Czechia will have to face tournament betting favorite Canada in the semifinals Friday at 4 p.m. ET with the winner advancing to the Gold medal game.
Canada beat Czechia 5-1 in the group stage and enters the elimination game as heavy -950 favorites (-2.5 on the puck line). Find out where the values lie with my free picks and predictions for Czechia vs. Canada.
Canada vs Czechia odds
| Canada | Czechia | |
|---|---|---|
| -950 | Moneyline | +590 |
| -2.5 (-158) | Puck line | +2.5 (+128) |
| Over 7 (-104) | Total | Under 7 (-118) |
Odds courtesy of FanDuel as of August 18, 2022.
Canada vs Czechia predictions
Predictions made on 8/18/2022 at 12:30 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Canada vs Czechia game info
• Location: Rogers Place, Edmonton, AB
• Date: Friday, August 19, 2022
• Puck drop: 4:00 p.m. ET
• TV: TSN
Canada vs Czechia picks and predictions
Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.
Puck line analysis
After falling to team USA in 2021, the Canadians have an easier path to the gold medal thanks to Thursday’s opponent knocking off the Americans, 4-2, in the quarterfinals.
The two-goal victory over the Americans was Czechia’s first multi-goal win of the tournament as their only other win in regulation came in the tournament’s opener vs. Slovakia — a 5-4 victory with the go-ahead goal coming in the final two minutes of the third period.
Canada’s ability to win and cover will come down to whether or not they can avoid the same mistakes the Americans made in the quarterfinals.
The USA took an early lead in that game but with stud defenseman, Luke Hughes playing injured, the Americans struggled to gain the offensive zone as the neutral game was sloppy which led to counterattacks that Czechia capitalized on. The underdogs also scored a back-breaking low-probability goal in the second which deflated the favorites who had never trailed leading up to the elimination game.
???? Matyas Sapovaliv sneaks one through to extend ???????? Czechia's lead halfway through the 2nd period.
— TSN (@TSN_Sports) August 18, 2022
???????? USA 1 - 3 ???????? Czechia
LIVE NOW: TSN4 | #WorldJuniors pic.twitter.com/zuNDIjEu1w
That is a very key point as we saw in 2021. Playing with the lead for the entire tournament can be detrimental for these young skaters, as Canada fell behind to the USA in the finals of the last tournament and never had an answer for a comeback.
This year is different as although Canada has been a perfect 5-0 with a plus-23 goal differential, they did trail Czechia 1-0 in their earlier meeting and followed that with five unanswered goals.
Team Canada just has too much talent to be hampered by a clogged-up neutral zone, and with plenty of notes already recorded thanks to the previous meeting, the better-experienced Canadian coaching staff won't be blindsided by Czechia’s defensive attempts, and will be able to make adjustments much better than if they hadn’t seen them in the tournament.
It also helps that Canada has the two best players in the tournament in captain Mason McTavish — who leads the tournament in points (14), goals (7), and plus/minus (+14) — and future No. 1 overall pick Connor Bedard. If you’re wondering why the Blackhawks are selling off their entire roster, Bedard is the reason.
Canada has had issues starting slowly and discipline has also been a problem, but in short tournaments like these, getting those issues out of the way early can be more beneficial. Canada managed an incredible 57 shots in the first meeting and Czechia could be riding too high after a massive win over the USA.
Canada cruises to the finals and covers in a game that is a full goal shorter on the spread than the last meeting. Some books are as short as -175 on the -2.5 PL.
Prediction: Canada -2.5 (-158 at FanDuel)
Over/Under analysis
Personally, I don’t prefer betting one-sided totals in elimination games. With the total at 7.0 and my prediction that Canada will cover the PL, getting seven goals out of the favorites is asking a lot.
The Canadians peppered the Czechs in the preliminaries, but I would be very surprised to see the Canucks run up the score as playing that offensively would open them up to the counterattack. Canadian goalie Dylan Garand has also given up three goals in back-to-back games and I’d suspect protecting their end will be a key component of Canada’s preparation.
We certainly won’t be seeing any goals like this with so much on the line.
???????????? KENT JOHNSON with the goal of the tournament! @hockeycanada up 2-1 against @narodnitym #WorldJuniors pic.twitter.com/qY5WtdawAa
— IIHF (@IIHFHockey) August 13, 2022
With Czechia knowing they can’t go toe-to-toe offensively with Canada, they will have one option and that will be to play defensively. With either the Finns or Swedes on deck for the favorites, protecting their own end will also be a priority for Canada Thursday afternoon.
Coolbet has the total at 6.5 (-135 to the Over in regulation) while FanDuel has the Under 7 at -118 including overtime.
Prediction: Under 7 (-116 at FanDuel)
Best bet
There are a lot of reasons to like the Canadians Thursday. First off, they haven’t cruised through the entire tournament and showed they can come back vs. Czechia in the preliminaries.
The coaching staff also has a full off day to dissect the USA’s loss to Czechia and has time to relay that intel to the players.
The roster is infinitely more talented and McTavish is having the best WJHC tournament in history and buried a pair of goals in the last meeting.
MASON MCTAVISH WITH A BEAUTY! ???? His second of the game to put Team Canada up big vs. Czechia. #WorldJuniors pic.twitter.com/NrtwLtwhAs
— Anaheim Ducks (@AnaheimDucks) August 14, 2022
The team has been a little leaky in net and that will be a point of emphasis as they look to make a gold medal run.
We’re also getting this number a full goal less than what it was in the preliminaries. Although I do think the total is a tough ask at 7.0, Canada will be doing the majority of the scoring and will even have a chance to cover this with an empty-net goal as Czechia certainly would pull their goalie trailing by two goals.
Pick: Canada -2.5 (-158 at FanDuel)
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