Sunday night finishes off with Jimmy Garoppolo getting the ball as four-point NFL betting favorites versus Carson Wentz and the Colts. We’ve studied the matchups and came up with our three best player props for SNF.
We bring you our favorite free prop picks and predictions for Sunday night’s Colts vs. 49ers Week 7 battle.
Colts vs 49ers prop picks
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Colts vs 49ers TNF props
Ground and Pound
Colts running back Jonathan Taylor sits fifth in the league in rushing yards and has two 100-yard games on his last three. Over those three games, he’s averaging 15 carries and 100 yards per game. Sunday night he’ll see a San Francisco defense that sits 20th in rushing success rate. The 49ers are giving up a league-average 4.3 yards per carry even though they are giving up just 99.7 yards per game over their last three.
Taylor’s rushing total sits at 65.5 yards after opening at 63.5 yards. This total was 81.5 yards last week versus Houston and with all the injuries to the Colts’ receivers, perhaps Frank Reich leans on the sophomore a little more than usual.
Taylor is the focal point of this offense and at 2-4 on the season, Reich and the Colts can’t get cute because a loss would likely mean their season is over. Give us the Over 65.5 rushing yards as Taylor is one of the hottest backs in the league over the last three weeks.
PICK: Jonathan Taylor Over 65.5 rushing yards (-110 at bet365)
Let Jimmy G Cook
The Colts, surprisingly, have the league’s worst success rate against the pass. Lamar Jackson threw for 442 yards against the Colts in Week 5. They also give up the most TDs to opposing wide receivers at a robust 1.7 scores per game. Jacoby Brissett tossed a pair of TDs versus Indy in Week 5 and every QB the Colts have faced (not including Davis Mills) has thrown for at least two TDs.
Jimmy Garoppolo will get the start with Trey Lance on the shelf. Jimmy G should be close to full health after the bye. His passing yardage total sits at 202.5 yards which shows us how much trust the books have in the quarterback, but there is some value in his passing TD prop that is paying +155 for the Over 1.5.
Garoppolo has at least one TD thrown in all of his starts this year, including a two-TD performance versus the Packers in Week 3 and could be wanting to show what he can do in the absence of Lance.
The San Francisco backfield is a mess, with Jamycal Hasty returning this week, and Deebo Samuel does his best work with Jimmy G under center with three TDs from him this season. This might not be a popular pick but at +155 we like the value.
PICK: Jimmy Garoppolo Over 1.5 passing TDs (+155 at Caesars Sportsbook)
Indianapolis tight end Mo Alie-Cox has seen his role with this offense grow over the last three weeks. Since Week 4, the TE has topped 25 yards receiving in each game and collected three touchdowns. He’s nabbed 12 targets over that stretch and with the injuries to TY Hilton (questionable) and Paris Campbell (out), there are a few more targets to go around in this Colts’ passing game.
The 49ers are Top-10 defensively against tight ends but with MAC’s receiving total at just 18.5 yards, one catch could cash this ticket like it did last week.
The Indy TE is averaging a healthy 15.2 yards per catch, which ranks second amongst all tight ends while he's averaging nearly 70 percent of the team’s snaps.
We love these potential one-and-done receiving props and Mo has cashed this ticket in three straight weeks. Why not make it four? This total is as high as 24.5 at other books.
PICK: Mo Alie-Cox Over 18.5 receiving yards (-115 at DraftKings)
Season to date: 37-47 -9.05 units (Risking to win 1 unit per play)
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