NFL Week 5 Bet Now, Bet Later: Grab Bengals as Road Dogs Before Line Moves

Joe Burrow and the Bengals could easily be sitting with a 4-0 record at this point but have to make do at 2-2 after a couple of poor starts to open the season. The market may not be fully re-adjusted to them and the Ravens defense might be in trouble.

Last Updated: Oct 2, 2022 9:43 PM ET Read Time: 4 min
Joe Burrow Cincinnati Bengals NFL
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Four weeks of NFL results are flowing through the oddsmakers' power ratings, which means the Week 5 odds are the tightest set of spreads and totals we’ve had to tangle with in 2022.

The margin of error is getting slimmer by the Sunday, which means shopping for the best number to suit your opinion is vital to your long-term success at the sportsbook. I help you pinpoint the best lines to bet now and which ones you may want to wait on in NFL Week 5.

Week 5 bet now, bet later picks

Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

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Baltimore let another win slip through its fingers in Week 4, blowing a 20-3 lead to the Bills to fall 23-20 — its second notable collapse of the year after giving up a 28-7 lead to the Dolphins in Week 3. 

While the offense is always dangerous with Lamar Jackson under center, the defense is having a tough time under new coordinator Mike Macdonald. Baltimore is sitting 25th in EPA allowed per play and faces a rested and reset Bengals offense enjoying a mini bye after beating Miami last Thursday night.

Cincinnati could honestly be 4-0 SU if not for poor starts vs. Pittsburgh and Dallas. Joe Burrow and the passing game have started to gain traction, sitting third in EPA per dropback over the past two weeks. Complementing that attack is a Cincy defense not getting nearly enough credit. The Bengals have held all four opponents to 20 points or less in regulation and rank out No. 6 in EPA allowed per play as we head into Week 5.

Bettors could be losing trust in “Big Truss,” so if you like Cincinnati on Sunday Night Football, snag the half-point hook on the field goal now.

The opening line for this Week 5 contest is a blend of Eagles -5, -5.5, and -6. But early action has either ticked the spread to -6 or a pricy -5.5 with extra juice. And why not? Philadelphia remains undefeated at 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS and will once again bask in the media spotlight heading into Sunday.

Philly beat Jacksonville 29-21 in Week 4 but needed some help from the sloppy weather in Lincoln Financial to facilitate four fumbles from Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence. That’s not to take anything away from the Eagles, but that game could have easily gone the other way without those turnovers.

The Cardinals are coming off their best showing of the season, stepping up in the second half vs. Carolina for a 26-16 victory. Arizona enters Week 5 with a 2-2 SU mark but is a handful on both sides of the ball, given its receiving corps is getting healthy, the run game is respectable (with Kyler Murray thrown in) and its defense throws the kitchen sink at opposing QBs.

If you’re selling stock in the soaring Eagles, wait and see if you can get the host team at +6 or higher. FYI: Arizona has owned second halves, ranking No. 3 in EPA per play after halftime. Philly, on the other hand, is just 23rd in the 2H metric.

As I write this, money is hitting the Over like a freight train and pushing this opener of 47.5 as high as 49.5 at some respectable online books that were first to market with the Week 5 odds. There are some 48 and 48.5 totals still out there, however.

The Chargers pulled a 180 from their injury-riddled Week 3, hanging 34 points on Houston in Week 4. The Bolts really got it going on the ground and with Justin Herbert and the passing game ranked Top 10 in EPA per dropback, foes must pick their poison against Los Angeles.

Cleveland’s attack is nearly as potent, holding the No. 7 spot in EPA per play entering Week 5. The air attack is a bit behind schedule, with Jacoby Brissett holding things together, but the run game is as dominant as ever behind Kareem Hunt and Nick Chubb. The Browns are first-down machines and face a Chargers defense that has shown a soft spot on the ground. 

As for Cleveland’s defense, it hasn't played up to expectations and could be down both Jadeveon Clowney (inactive in Week 4) and Myles Garrett (out Week 4 after car crash). The Bolts are missing their defensive stud, Joey Bosa, as well.

This game promises plenty of points. If you like that sort of thing, jump on the Over now at the lowest number you can find.

Don’t refresh your page: the Seattle Seahawks are the fourth-rated offense by EPA per play entering Week 5. Geno Smith is the worst pen pal in the world (still waiting for him to write back) and the Seahawks are sizzling off a 48-45 shitshow shootout against the Lions.

But no one uglies up a game quite like the Saints. New Orleans returns to the Superdome for just its second home game of the season after a tight loss to Minnesota in London. The Saints offense has been a mess due to injuries to the skill positions, including QB Jameis Winston, but the defense remains the sturdy backbone of this team.

The status of guys like Winston, Michael Thomas, and Alvin Kamara will influence this Over/Under, but early money is showing up on the Over and bumping the number from 43.5 to 44.5 in the first hour of action. If you don’t see the Seahawks having it that easy in the “Big Easy," break for taller totals and then bet Under later in the week.

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