As a sports bettor, it can be hard to wrap your head around betting on a team coming off a loss or even one coming one where they got completely obliterated.
However, any seasoned betting veteran will tell you situations where a team is coming off a performance where they were far from their best is often the right time to pounce... unless we're talking about the Carolina Panthers.
Off-a-loss trends are one of my favorite situations to track in leagues like the NFL and NBA, as some teams become absolute monsters in this spot. It just so has it we have a few on display here in Week 3.
I'll break down these specific trend spots, along with NFL betting trends for each game on the slate to help get you prepared. Best of luck with all your bets!
Best NFL Week 3 betting trends
Patriots vs Jets
The trend: Under Robert Saleh, the Jets are 5-11-1 ATS in the game after a win
The New York Jets picked up a much-needed win in Week 2 over the Titans, but they generally haven’t followed up a winning performance very strongly under Saleh, going 5-11-1 against the spread and 5-12 straight up.
New York is favored by 6.5 points, the biggest favorite they’ve been in a game with the New England Patriots since 1999 where they were favored by eight. For the record, they lost that game 30-28.
See all Patriots vs Jets trends for Week 3.
Bears vs Colts
The trend: The Bears have gone Under in nine of their last 12 games
The Chicago Bears' defense might be flying under the radar a bit, as they've held eight straight opponents to 20 points or less. It’s early in the season, but their defense is currently tied for fifth in yards per play allowed and third in opponent third down conversion percentage. This game has a total of 43.5.
See all Bears vs Colts trends for Week 3.
Giants vs Browns
The trend: The Giants have gone Under in 15 of their last 21 games
Not having anyone available to kick field goals and extra points contributed to this trend continuing last week. The New York Giants have scored just 24 points in two games, while the Cleveland Browns' attack has also been far from special — failing to reach the 20-point mark this season. As a result, we have a low total of 38.5 for this ugly-looking matchup.
See all Giants vs Browns trends for Week 3.
Packers vs Titans
The trend: The Packers are 18-8 ATS in their last 26 games as an underdog
Matt LaFleur gets his boys ready to play up to the competition. This was on full display in their Week 2 win as a 2.5-point dog vs the Colts, where they won 16-10 thanks to 261 yards on the ground. The Green Bay Packers will look to continue their underdog run as 2.5-point dogs in what should be known as ‘The Malik Willis revenge game.’
See all Packers vs Titans trends for Week 3.
Eagles vs Saints
The trend: The Eagles are 1-8 ATS in their last nine games
The Philadelphia Eagles gave their fans some hope in Week 1 after last season’s disastrous finish, but those wheels fell right back off in Week 2 vs. Atlanta. This is a very talented roster, but they might be getting too much respect as they head into New Orleans to take on a red-hot offense favored by 2.5. Philly has also gone 3-9 ATS in its last 12 games as an underdog.
See all Eagles vs Saints trends for Week 3.
Chargers vs Steelers
The trend: The Chargers have gone Under in 14 of their last 17 games
Yes, most of these were under a different coaching regime, but it looks like the Los Angeles Chargers could be involved in a lot of low-scoring games this season, as they’ve allowed a grand total of 13 points in two games. Not to be outdone, the Pittsburgh Steelers have only allowed 16 points. Unsurprisingly, this game has a rock-bottom total of 35.5 points. Seven of L.A.’s last nine games have stayed Under that number.
See all Chargers vs Steelers trends for Week 3.
Texans vs Vikings
The trend: The Vikings have gone Under the first half total in 14 of 19 games since the start of last season
The Minnesota Vikings' defense has been starting strong this season, with just 10 total first-half points allowed. It just so has it the Houston Texans were an amazing first-half Under bet on the road last season, going Under in all nine of their road games! The first-half total for the game is set at 22.5.
See all Texans vs Vikings trends for Week 3.
Broncos vs Buccaneers
The trends: The Broncos have scored first in eight of their last 11 games, the Bucs have scored last in 13 of their last 18 games
Trends collide! Despite all of their struggles, the Denver Broncos do get off their decent starts. They’ve also covered the first-quarter spread in 16 of their last 21 games. If you expect a decent start in this one, you can take them at +135 to score first or at +1.5 on their first-quarter spread.
See all Broncos vs Buccaneers trends for Week 3.
Panthers vs Raiders
The trend: The Panthers have scored 13 points or less in 10 of their last 12 games
Yeah, Bryce Young was awful, but let’s not pretend Andy Dalton is a massive upgrade, especially with the lack of weapons around him. They have a team total of 17.5 points which is a number they’ve topped in just five games since the start of last season.
See all Panthers vs Raiders trends for Week 3.
Dolphins vs Seahawks
The trend: In eight career regular-season appearances where he has 119 pass attempts, Skylar Thompson has just one TD pass and 25 total rushing yards
Nothing stands out from a team perspective, so let’s focus on a player. It’s fair to say Thompson doesn’t exactly have a nose for the end zone, while he’s also not a threat to break off a big run. Player prop bettors can consider fading Thompson by targeting his O/U pass TDs and rushing yards.
*At the time of the writing, props have not been released. Don’t auto-fade Thompson if you think the opening numbers are too low. Just use those career stats as a starting point.
See all Dolphins vs Seahawks trends for Week 3.
Lions vs Cardinals
The trend: The Lions are 8-0 ATS in their last eight games following a loss
No one bounces back quite like Dan Campbell and the Detroit Lions. This trend started towards the end of the 2022 season and went 5-0 ATS in 2023, with four wins in this spot coming by double digits. They’re favored by three points in what will be their first road game of the season.
See all Lions vs Cardinals trends for Week 3.
49ers vs Rams
The trend: The 49ers are 9-1 SU in their last 10 regular season games against the Rams
Shanahan has quietly owned McVay over the last five regular seasons. The San Francisco 49ers have covered the spread in seven of these games, but this week’s game could be a bit tricky with both squads being decimated by injuries at the skill positions. The 49ers are favored by seven and will likely be a popular teaser option.
See all 49ers vs Rams trends for Week 3.
Ravens vs Cowboys
The trend: Since the start of the 2021 season, the Cowboys have gone 12-3 ATS in games following a loss
It’s a desperate spot for both teams in Dallas on Sunday, and the Cowboys have a good track record in this situation over the past few seasons.
They’re +1, which marks the first time they’ve been a home underdog in over two years. For the record, the last time came on September 18, 2022, when Cooper Rush led them to a win over the Bengals... after an embarrassing 19-3 loss the week before.
See all Ravens vs Cowboys trends for Week 3.
Chiefs vs Falcons
The trend: The Falcons are an NFL-worst 6-17-1 ATS in games after a win since the start of the 2021 season
I wouldn’t exactly call this an actionable trend, given all of these games occurred with different coaching staffs and starting QBs than the guys in place now.
Still, with the Atlanta Falcons also being an outright loser in 18 of these games, it’s clear they’ve been one of the league’s most inconsistent franchises over the past few seasons... and that inconsistency is already on display this season, isn’t it? The Kansas City Chiefs are favored by 3.5 points.
See all Chiefs vs Falcons trends for Week 3.
Jaguars vs Bills
The trend: The Jaguars have gone Under the first quarter total in 15 of their last 20 games
Weirdo trend of the week, but things might line up pretty good for this one as both defenses are coming off a season where they were stingy in the opening quarter. The first-quarter total for this game is 8.5, which seems low, but the Jacksonville Jaguars’ games last season only saw an average of 5.9 points in the opening quarter.
See all Jaguars vs Bills trends for Week 3.
Commanders vs Bengals
The trend: The Commanders have allowed at least 28 points in eight of their last 10 road games
That 28 number is especially of note, with the Cincinnati Bengals’ team total sitting at 27.5.
Mac Jones and Desmond Ridder quarterbacked the only opponents who didn’t reach at least 28 points. Could a statement performance for Joe Burrow and this offense be in store after an 0-2 start?
See all Commanders vs Bengals trends for Week 3.
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