Week 18 NFL Teaser: The Grand Finale

Ladies and gentlemen, for the final time during the 2023-24 regular season, it is Teaser Time!

Week 18 NFL odds can be difficult to navigate, so if you decide to bet, bet with caution because you’re at risk of getting burned. Even as I write this article on Friday afternoon, I’m sure we’ll see some significant line moves between now and these games kicking off as more big-time players are officially announced as inactive. 

One mistake you shouldn’t make with your NFL Week 18 predictions, whether they be teaser bets or otherwise, is to assume specific teams and players aren’t motivated because they have nothing to play for. Even with backups seeing significant minutes this week, don’t you think those players are eager to make an impression to possibly boost their stock in free agency, or maybe see some extra snaps come playoff time?

Don’t forget all the Houston Texans needed to do was lose to secure the number one overall draft pick in the final week last season, but Lovie Smith was in no mood to tank and led his team to a worthless Week 18 win that could have severely burned his team had the Panthers been wise enough to draft CJ Stroud. Smith, of course, was rewarded for the win by promptly being fired. The lesson here is to assume nothing when sifting through the Week 18 odds and to think long and hard before accepting a job with the Houston Texans organization. 

At the end of the day, these are still professional athletes and coaches at the top of their professions. Both are hyper-competitive, so don’t get in trouble by playing the “are they or aren’t the motivated” game.

Anyway, no more lecturing from me. Let’s get into my favorite Week 18 NFL picks.

Week 18 NFL teaser picks

six-point teaser

• Ravens (+9.5)
• Titans (+10)

Picks made on January 5 at 3:30 p.m. ET.
Read full analysis of each pick.

Week 18 Teaser

Ravens (+3.5 to +9.5) vs Steelers

I’m expecting a low-scoring affair in Baltimore with the Pittsburgh Steelers in town and even with Lamar Jackson sitting out to avoid injury, the Baltimore Ravens still might have the better quarterback with Tyler Huntley filling in to face Mason Rudolph.

With Huntley as their starter last season, the Ravens went an even 3-3 SU, but they did keep things tight in the losses. Two of these Huntley starts were against the Steelers with each of the games being decided by three points or less. 

We’ll see a lot of backups for Baltimore but don’t assume they won’t be trying, especially against a division rival who they can potentially keep out of the playoffs. Winning is a part of the culture in Baltimore – look no further than their play in the preseason where they’ve gone 24-2 SU in their last 26 games. Winning matters to this team no matter what the stakes are so expect them to be competitive on their home field.

Titans (+4 to +10) vs Jaguars

In another game with “a team with nothing to play for,” I expect the Tennessee Titans to be competitive on their home field in what could be Derrick Henry’s last game as a Titan, and possibly Mike Vrabel’s last game as their head coach (where there’s smoke there’s fire). 

The Titans have yet to get smacked at home this season where they’ve won four of seven games and haven’t lost by more than a field goal with two of those losses coming in overtime. Despite beating the Panthers last week (congratulations on beating the worst team in the NFL!), the Jacksonville Jaguars are absolutely reeling right now as they lost their four games before beating up Carolina. 

We know that Trevor Lawrence is hurting coming into the game as he sat out last week and is questionable for this game. While I expect him to play, he won’t be at full strength and will likely be uncomfortable against a Titans defense that ranks fourth in sack percentage at home. While Tennessee’s offense is nothing to write home about, they’ve been able to do just enough at home this season to keep games tight.

Learn more about teaser betting with Covers’ teaser betting guide.

Best Week 18 teaser spots

• Ravens (+3.5 to +9.5)
• Titans (+4 to +10)
• Chiefs vs. Chargers (+3.5 to +9.5)
• Falcons vs. Saints (+3 to +9)
• Bengals vs. Browns (-7 to -1)

I can’t quite make sense of the Los Angeles Chargers, who’ve been playing without key players for weeks now, being favored by 3.5 over the Kansas City Chiefs, so let’s take KC up to +9.5. Yes, I realize the Chiefs are sitting key players as well, but they have an enormous coaching advantage over the Chargers whose only win in their last nine games was that 6-0 win over the Patriots. 

The New Orleans Saints can’t be trusted… neither can the Atlanta Falcons, but they’re the side getting a nine-point cushion. New Orleans is coming off a win, but that might not be a good thing as they’re an NFL-worst 3-10-1 ATS in the game after a win since the start of last season. The Falcons have kept things tight with their division rival in recent games with two wins and two losses by three or less in the last five games between the teams, and I think they match up well to give the Saints a competitive game. 

In what’s been a lost season for the Cincinnati Bengals after a poor start, followed by Joe Burrow going down with an injury, I think things set up nicely for them against the playoff-bound Cleveland Browns who’ll be starting a man named Jeff Driskel at quarterback. My primary reason for liking the Bengals to get the win is because of how bad the Browns' defense has been on the road where they allow 29.4 points per game. Jake Browning has played some pretty good ball in relief of Burrow with three separate 300+ yard passing games and I think he could have another one on Sunday.

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