NFL Week 18 Picks and Predictions: Doubt Dolphins at Own Risk

Betting NFL Week 18 is not for the faint of heart.

The regular season finales present plenty of puzzles for both bookies and bettors alike, as motivations are a mixed bag — a bag stuffed with feral cats, rusty mouse traps, and defective deep fryers.

The last slate of games for the 2023 season is especially enigmatic, as several clubs can still qualify for the postseason should things bounce their way this weekend. 

There are also playoff-bound teams weighing rest vs. rust, leaving Week 18 odds in limbo with several spreads parked at “dead numbers” as the market waits for more information.

And, of course, there are those teams with nothing to play for. Do the players care? Are head coaches on the way out? Would a win spoil their draft plans?

Bombarded by all these unknowns, we can find stability in the fact that NFL odds underdogs have been a solid bet in regular season finales over the previous five seasons. 

Going back to 2018, pups have finished just 22-58 straight up but 44-34-2 against the spread (56.4%) in the final game of the season, including 19-13 ATS in Week 18 games since the league added the extra slate in 2021.

It would seem that amid all the chaos and quandaries on Week 18, the underdog barks loudest. Let’s hope that continues this weekend with our NFL picks.

Last week: 1-2 ATS

Season: 24-25-2 ATS

NFL Week 18 picks and predictions

• Ravens +4
• Bears +3.5
• Dolphins +3

Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Steelers at Ravens (+4) pick

The Baltimore Ravens have the top seed in the AFC locked up but know too well that means shit all if they come out flat in the postseason. 

Baltimore was in a similar spot in 2019 and opted to rest up in the season finale, giving the first teamers two weeks off before the Divisional Round. Unfortunately, the Ravens were rusty and got bounced by Tennessee as 10-point home favorites. 

Head coach John Harbaugh is searching for a sweet spot this time around and hasn’t announced his Week 18 plans as of this writing. But even if Baltimore does opt to sit some of its stars, this team is still set up well to compete against the rival Pittsburgh Steelers on Saturday.

First, the Ravens are at home in Week 18 and facing a Pittsburgh team clinging to a thin chance of making the playoff cut. The Steelers have been ass-backward all season — getting by on takeaways rather than offense — but suddenly have life since going with QB3 Mason Rudolph as their quarterback.

The thing is, even with the Ravens likely sitting Lamar Jackson, backup Tyler Huntley still gives Baltimore the better QB. Huntley has plenty of starting experience, even postseason reps, and looked sharp in relief of Jackson in last week’s one-sided win over Miami.

No one would blame Baltimore for protecting its top talents in this meaningless game, given the team’s painful history of injuries the past few seasons. But in that lies the Ravens’ strength. This is one of the deepest rosters in the league, due to those second and third-stringers putting in major minutes. 

And even with the Baltimore secondary licking its wounds and needing a week or two off, is a Rudolph-led passing game really going to threaten the Ravens with the deep ball? Nah. Add in some rain, snow, and wind, and I’m not sure the Steelers have the offensive chops to cover a spread that has grown from -2.5 to -4. 

PICK: Ravens +4 (-110 at FanDuel)

Bears (+3.5) at Packers pick

I’m sure a few playoff-bound NFC teams are breathing easier because the Chicago Bears aren’t going to the tournament. No, really.

This Chicago team has been a different beast since the midway mark of the schedule, ranking No. 2 in EPA allowed per play since Week 9. The offense has also stepped up, averaging 24.5 points over the last six outings.

Most teams in Chicago’s position would be contemplating the worth of a Week 18 win versus their spot in the upcoming draft. But with the Bears already owning Carolina’s No. 1 pick and Justin Fields pretty much interviewing for the QB1 job in 2024, the motivation to spoil Green Bay’s postseason plans is very much alive.

The Packers are in a “win and in” situation, which has anchored this market between -3 and -3.5. Covers Consensus shows overwhelming public support for the Cheeseheads with 60% of early picks on Green Bay but professional groups took the points with Chicago earlier in the week.

The Packers haven’t played an offense this dangerous in a while, taking on a slew of struggling QBs and backups the past month. Yet, the defense has given up big scores to the likes of Carolina, Tampa Bay, and the Giants.

And with injuries to several skill players — especially the WR corps — Green Bay may not be able to punch back should it get into an offensive slugfest with Fields and the Bears, who have scored 64 total points the past two weeks.

PICK: Bears +3.5 (-125 at 888sport)

Bills at Dolphins (+3) pick

In the smoke and shrapnel of Week 18, sometimes you just have to grab the best team getting the points. That would be the Miami Dolphins +3 at home with the AFC East title on the line.

In terms of market perception, these two rivals couldn’t be more opposite heading into Week 18.

The Buffalo Bills are the hot team, hurling toward the playoffs on a four-game winning streak, and are in a “win and in” scenario as a loss would erase them from the AFC playoff picture. 

The Dolphins, on the other hand, just ate a 50-plus burger in Week 17 and that bad loss to Baltimore was enough to install Buffalo as a 2.5-point road fave and pump this line to the key number of a field goal.

While the Bills’ recent victories over Kansas City and Dallas were notable, Buffalo is lucky to be in this spot given it needed a last-second FG to get past the zombie Chargers and held off the pop-gun Patriots (who outgained the Bills) in Week 17.

Also fueling the fire — with 62% of Covers Consensus picks on Buffalo — is the Bills’ 48-20 ass waxing of Miami way back in Week 4. The Fins offense was all over the place in that outing, but it was the defense that did them in, as the stop unit gave up more than 400 yards of offense. 

That poor showing is a forgivable folly, considering Miami was adapting to Vic Fangio’s defensive schemes. The Dolphins defense has since found its fit with the new coordinator and finished the remainder of the year among the top teams in EPA allowed per play.

While this Week 18 game has the highest total on the board, I’m not sold on a shootout. This clash for the AFC East crown will have playoff intensity, and I’ll take the home team to at least stay inside the field goal spread.

PICK: Dolphins +3 (-110 at bet365)

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