The Los Angeles Chargers and Kansas Chiefs had trouble scoring against a pair of terrible defensive teams last week and things won't be easier when they collide in primetime.
My NFL picks are taking the Under in their Sunday Night showdown, and I'm also betting the Over in a pair of early games on the Week 14 slate.
Week 14 totals bets
- Saints vs Giants Over 41 (-110 at BetMGM)
- Raiders vs Buccaneers Over 46 (-110 at bet365)
- Chargers vs Chiefs Under 43 (-110 at bet365)
Read full analysis of each pick.
Best Week 14 Over/Under picks
Over/Under bet #1: Saints vs Giants Over 41
With Drew Lock under center for the New York Giants, you might expect an ugly low-scoring game here. However, both teams like to run the ball and should be able to get whatever they want on the ground.
The Giants are 29th in the NFL in rushing yards allowed per game (145.8) and dead-last in yards allowed per carry (5.1). They could be even worse in that area with All-Pro defensive tackle Dexter Lawrence now on the IR and top linebacker Bobby Okereke sidelined by a back injury.
The New Orleans Saints are sixth in the league in rush EPA and have a backfield spearheaded by Alvin Kamara. While they lost Taysom Hill to an injury, interim head coach Darren Rizzi has said he'll use similar offensive packages with different players running off direct snaps.
The Saints are tied with the Giants in yards allowed per carry (5.1) while ranking 30th in defensive rush EPA and 31st in defensive rush success rate. Rookie running back Tyrone Tracy has been a bright spot in an ugly season for the G-Men and has been very productive in games where they haven't played with a negative game script.
Over/Under bet #2: Raiders vs Buccaneers Over 46
This game has seen plenty of Over money, driving the total from 44.5 to as high as 46.5. That said, I still like the Over between two sides that have each gone 7-2 O/U in their last nine games.
Aidan O'Connell might not be the long-term answer at QB for the Las Vegas Raiders, but new OC Scott Turner let him throw downfield last week, resulting in 340 passing yards against the Chiefs. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense is 29th in the league in dropback EPA and 31st in dropback success rate.
It also helps that the Raiders' top receiver is Brock Bowers, who leads all tight ends in receiving yards (884) while the Bucs surrender the third-most receiving yards to tight ends. The only teams allowing more yards to the position are the Raiders themselves and the Chiefs, whom Bowers torched for 140 yards last week.
Meanwhile, Tampa Bay should shred a Vegas defense that has allowed 29.5 ppg and ranks 30th in dropback EPA since the start of October. Baker Mayfield is third in the league in completion percentage (70.8%) and sixth in passing yards (3,034), and the Bucs have averaged 30.1 ppg since Week 4.
Over/Under bet #3: Chargers vs Chiefs Under 43
The Los Angeles Chargers faced a terrible Falcons defense last week and finished with just 187 total yards and 4.1 yards per play. Likewise, the Kansas City Chiefs scored 19 points while averaging 4.9 yards per play against the Raiders.
L.A.'s rushing attack has lost its explosiveness with J.K. Dobbins on the IR, and Gus Edwards is averaging 3.4 yards per carry with his longest attempt going for just 12 yards. He'll be stuffed by a Chiefs D that allows the second-fewest yards per rush (3.7) in the league. The Bolts could also be missing their top receiver with Ladd McConkey listed as questionable.
Running back Isiah Pacheco returned to the Chiefs lineup last week but their WR corps is still missing standout wide receivers Rashee Rice and Hollywood Brown. Without those deep threats, Patrick Mahomes has been throwing underneath and his average completed air yards sits at just 4.1 — the second-lowest number in the NFL.
The Chiefs are just 22nd in the league in yards per play (5.2) and have relied on long, clock-chewing, drives to move the ball. They won't find it easy to sustain those drives against a Chargers stop unit that ranks fifth in the NFL in defensive success rate and allows a league-low 15.7 ppg.
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