Week 11 NFL Parlay Picks: Cowboys Come Out Swinging in Carolina

It's been the year of the Under in the NFL, with games going below the total 59.7% of the time through the first 10 weeks of the season. That figure jumps to 60.6% if you exclude games that went to overtime.

Though the betting public generally loves supporting Overs, NFL odds totals have been trending down noticeably as the season goes on. As such, I think wagering opportunities are appearing on the Over, and that side makes up three of my favorite plays in the Week 11 odds.

I'll parlay three Over wagers before diving into my favorite same-game parlay of the week, which involves the Dallas Cowboys taking on the Carolina Panthers.

Without further ado, here are my best free NFL parlay picks for Week 11.

Week 11 NFL parlay picks

• LAC/GB Over 43.5 + LV/MIA Over 46.5 + PHI/KC Over 45.5 = +596
• Cowboys -6.5 1H + Cowboys TT o26.5 + Bryce Young o21.5 completions = +320

Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Best Week 11 parlay pick

Chargers vs. Packers Over 43.5

Raiders vs. Dolphins Over 46.5

Eagles vs. Chiefs Over 45.5

+596 at FanDuel

Despite losing on a last-second field goal to the Lions in Week 10, the Chargers have to feel good about the way their offense is performing over these last three weeks. They're averaging 31.7 points across that span, with Austin Ekeler crossing the goal line at least once in each contest. Justin Herbert has delivered seven touchdown passes while tossing only one interception in the same stretch.

The Packers may be 11th in points allowed per game (20.2), but they've faced only one Top-10 offense all year in the Lions, to whom they surrendered a season-high 34 points. Meanwhile, Green Bay's offense is not so awful that it can't contribute to this Over. Jordan Love & Co. have been held to fewer than 17 points just twice in 2023, and L.A. ranks 24th in scoring defense this season.

The Dolphins boast the No. 1 scoring offense in football and face a Raiders defense that's padded its 13th-placing ranking in the corresponding category in wins over the hapless Jets and Giants. Fresh off a bye and playing at home vs. a Las Vegas team that'll feel like it's playing at 10 a.m. Pacific time, Miami could carry this total almost single-handedly, especially if De'Von Achane is able to return. The Raiders' 29th-ranked rush defense should have a hard time stopping him and Raheem Mostert.

Finally, I'm expecting the fireworks to fly once again when the Eagles battle the Chiefs. The two teams played to an instant classic 38-35 result in Super Bowl 57. Philly and K.C. are fifth and eighth, respectively, in total offense.

While their defenses are 14th and fourth, respectively, in yards allowed per game, each offense should still be able to lean on its bread-and-butter on Monday night. The Eagles' eighth-ranked rushing attack will face the Chiefs' 17th-rated run stoppers, while Patrick Mahomes' fifth-ranked aerial assault can dice up Philly's 28th-ranked pass defense.

Best Week 11 SGP

Cowboys -6.5 1H

Cowboys team total Over 26.5

Bryce Young Over 21.5 passing completions

+320 at DraftKings

The point spread on Sunday's Cowboys vs. Panthers game clocks in at a steep 10.5 points. I'll steer the odds in my favor to some extent by rolling with Dallas to win the first half by at least a touchdown.

Mike McCarthy's men boast the most first-half points in football at 19.7 per game, while the Panthers are 25th with 13 first-half points allowed per game. By contrast, Carolina is 26th in first-half points for (8.8), while the Cowboys are seventh in first-half points against (9.4).

If the Dallas offense gets off to a fast start, it stands to reason that it'll eclipse its team total of 26.5 points. The Cowboys are averaging 29.9 points per game in 2023, second only to the Miami Dolphins. This unit can be explosive at times, managing at least 30 points in five of nine contests. That includes going for 40 or more points three times. 

I'll sweeten the odds with my third and final leg, which is for Panthers quarterback Bryce Young to complete at least 22 passes. He's done so in six of eight games in his rookie year and missed doing so by one completion last week. 

Despite tossing 36.3 passes per game, fifth in the NFL, Young is only 33rd in yards per attempt. That means he's settling for short completions, which Dallas is more than willing to allow. The Cowboys' defense owns the eighth-lowest average depth of target on the year, meaning they excel at preventing quarterbacks from taking deep shots.

Look for Young to settle for short throws and rack up some easy completions on Sunday.

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