Vikings vs Eagles TNF Prop Bets: Cousins Airs It Out in the City of Brotherly Love

Prop bet #1: You like that?!

Despite the Minnesota Vikings struggles to put up points in last week’s loss to the Buccaneers, Kirk Cousins was highly efficient, completing 75% of his passes and throwing for 344 yards. Outside of an ill-timed interception in the red zone before halftime, Cousins played well and took advantage of All-Pro Justin Jefferson and new toy Jordan Addison.

While Kevin O’Connell’s crew only scored 17 points, they’re still in the top half of the league in EPA per play through Week 1 (13th) and 10th in EPA per dropback after finishing 10th in EPA per dropback last season. Even against a stingy Philadelphia Eagles defense, Cousins should be able to throw for at least 263 yards, a number he surpassed in nine of 17 games last season, just like Mac Jones was able to against them last week.

Clearly losing both starting safeties in free agency is having an impact on new defensive coordinator Sean Desai’s group's ability to contain passing plays. Jones threw for 316 against them in Week 1, which would have been his third-highest output in 2022.

To make matters tougher on the Eagles' secondary, starting safety Reed Blankenship and starting cornerback James Bradberry have both been ruled out for the game after sustaining injuries against the Patriots. With starting center Garrett Bradbury set to miss his second straight week with a back injury, Minnesota’s inability to run the ball should support more passing plays being called by O’Connell.

Last week against Tampa, in what remained a tied or one-score game from start to finish, Cousins threw 44 passes to just 14 carries for running backs. Without Dalvin Cook, Minnesota is lacking an explosive running game, and whether it’s a close one or the Eagles holding a lead throughout, Cousins is poised to be passing.

Kirk Cousins prop: Over 262.5 passing yards (-110)

Prop bet #2: Thursday stuffing

Running into the teeth of the Eagles defense isn’t an easy proposition, and it’s made that much harder when you’re without your starting center and are one of the worst pre-contact runners in the NFL.

Last season, Alexander Mattison finished 38th among NFL running backs with at least 50 carries with 1.7 yards before contact. In 2021, he ranked 68th out of 76 qualifying running backs with 1.2 yards before contact. 

Over the past two seasons, there have been 74 running backs with 100 or more rushing attempts, Mattison is 68th in yards per carry (3.7), 45th in success rate (37.5%), 43rd in explosive run rate (9.1%), and 42nd in yards after contact per carry (2.78).

Despite this, he’s been handed the reins to the backfield in Minnesota after running for 1,670 yards from 2019-2022, including just 283 last season.

In his debut as the RB1 for the Vikings, he produced just 34 yards on 11 carries against one of the better defenses in the league — the Buccaneers were 11th in EPA per play last season — and things will only be harder against one of the best front sevens in football.

Last season, the Eagles finished 4th in EPA per play on defense, and in the opener against the Patriots, they held both Rhamondre Stevenson and Ezekiel Elliott under 30 rushing yards. As a team, New England ran for just 76 yards on 22 carries. 

Mattison is going to have a heck of a time trying to hit 50 yards on the ground against an interior defensive line group led by Jordan Davis and Jalen Carter; bonus points if Fletcher Cox — who is dealing with a rib injury — plays too.

Last season, Mattison ran for 50+ yards just once in a Week 18 blowout of the Chicago Bears, and he’s crossed 50 yards on the ground just 13 times in 60 career games.

Alexander Mattison prop: Under 49.5 rushing yards (-110)

Prop bet #3: Slim Reaper

The Vikings defense finished 21st in EPA per dropback last season and gave up 25.1 points per game, ranking 28th in the league.

That led to the firing of Ed Donatell and the hiring of Brian Flores as defensive coordinator, which is as philosophically different as it gets when it comes to playcallers on that side of the ball. Flores likes to blitz and he likes to play man coverage, which can lead to some nice days for receivers if the pass rush isn’t getting home.

Last week against a Baker Mayfield-led Buccaneers team, that nobody expected much out of on offense, Flores' defense struggled with Mike Evans and Chris Godwin at times. They’ll have a much tougher task this week with one of the league’s best quarterbacks throwing to arguably the best receiver tandem in the NFL.

Against a much better Patriots defense, both A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith caught seven passes. Minnesota’s secondary is in much worse shape with free agent acquisition Byron Murphy being the one brand-name cornerback on the roster, and with him likely seeing more Brown than Smith, the former Heisman winner should have himself a day.

The Slim Reaper — if Kevin Durant won’t take the greatest modern nickname then Smith has to — has caught at least seven passes in his last four regular season games and gone Over 5.5 receptions in six of his last seven games if you count the playoffs.

In 20 regular season and playoff games in 2022, Smith hit six or more receptions in 10 games and averaged exactly 5.5 over that span. Against the Vikings, he’ll have every opportunity to cross 5.5 receptions after being targeted at least seven times in 15 of 20 games last season and 10 times in Week 1 against the Patriots.

Devonta Smith prop: Over 5.5 receptions (+115)