Best NFL Touchdown Props for Week 9: Moss Remains Colts' Go-To Guy in Red Zone

Prop bet #1: Taysom wagon

It cost me some money last week taking Jamaal Williams over Taysom Hill, but the takeaway from watching what the Saints did in Week 8 was simple: give the red-zone carries to Hill.  

Hill had seven carries inside the 20 and two inside the five-yard line. He turned that into two scores to make it three over the last two weeks, where he has 10 red-zone carries, which is the third-most in football over that stretch. Alvin Kamara did have five red zone carries last week with two TDs, but he is priced at -120 while Hill can be found as long as +210 at bet365. 

It’s a great matchup vs. the Bears, indoors, and at home. Chicago has the league’s worst red-zone defense at 78%, and as an 8.5-point favorite, the Saints will be going run-heavy vs. Chicago early, often, and near the goal line. 

Considering he scored twice last week and was as long as +280, the +210 Week 9 price is still legit and something I have priced at +140. His mid-week limited tag last week scared me off his TD, but even with the same designation on Thursday, I’m not avoiding it again and see the limited tag as nothing more than managing reps. 

Taysom Hill prop: Anytime TD (+210 at bet365)

Prop bet #2: Moss and found

I have had plenty of success betting TDs in Colts games because I feel their totals are still too low for a team that is scoring at a Top-10 rate but also giving up points in bunches. Gardner Minshew is a perfect 3-0 to the Over since taking over the starting role where the games have totaled 57, 77, and 65 points with an average closing total of 43. 

The Colts face the Panthers this week and with a team total of 22.5 as a road favorite, I love rushing TDs here vs. a Carolina defense that allows the most rushing TDs per game in football at 2.0 per match. 

Jonathan Taylor is back and looks good, but Zack Moss is not going away and has scored four times since JT has returned. That includes another score last week on a one-yard rush. Taylor had 12 carries to Moss’ 11 last week and the snap share that favored Taylor (61% to 39%) had more to do with Taylor running more routes. 

Moss had four carries in the red zone to JT’s one. Since Taylor’s return, Moss has 14 red zone carries to JT’s 11. He has also outscored him 4:1.

With a great matchup vs. the worst rush TD defense in Carolina and Moss paying +175 for a score compared to -138 for Taylor, it’s another week on Moss who continues to be undervalued in all of his props. I’d play this to +140. 

Zack Moss prop: Anytime TD (+175 at DraftKings)

Prop bet #3: Powers that QB

Josh Allen has scored in five of his last six games yet is still being priced as long as +210 to score in prime time in a game with one of the biggest totals of Week 9. 

Allen had been dealing with a shoulder injury he seemingly picked up on Thursday of last week but has practiced in full this week and will not carry an injury designation into a headline game Sunday night vs. the Bengals. 

Allen’s rushing numbers are down across the board in terms of volume and efficiency, but he is still taking off near the goal line. 

Of the Buffalo QB’s 36 carries this game, 13 of them have come inside the 20. Latavius Murray has done a great job at running into his offensive line when getting his goal-line carries, and the oldest back in football is not the Bills’ answer in the red zone.

Allen has one full game vs. the Bengals since 2020 — last year’s playoff loss — and he was the only scorer in the 27-10 home loss. Considering the market is as short as +140 (a more accurate price) and Allen has been stacking rushing TDs since Week 3, this +210 seems like a gift in a prime-time game that could be a shootout. 

Josh Allen prop: Anytime TD (+210 at FanDuel)