With extra rest and a total that is falling due to weather concerns, Monday night’s matchup between the Tennessee Titans and Buffalo Bills might not be the high-scoring affair the previous meetings have been.
The Bills' offense has a lot of mouths to feed, and Tennesse was led by two rookie receivers and a running back in the passing game last week, making this a tough matchup to find some prop value.
Add in some potentially poor playing conditions, and bettors should be cautious before getting down on many of the markets when making Titans vs. Bills picks.
That said, here are my best free NFL player prop bets for the first half of tonight's Monday Night Football doubleheader.
Titans vs Bills props
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Titans vs Bills MNF props
A who's who at receiver
Last season, the Titans knocked off the Bills, 34-31, with Julio Jones and A.J. Brown collecting 69% of the team’s passing yards. Now without those receivers, Tannehill will have to rely on a receiving group that was led by rookie Kyle Philips last week. Still, the receiver is questionable for the matchup with a shoulder injury.
Philips was limited at practice on Friday after sitting on Thursday. The fifth-round rookie led the Titans in catches (6), targets (9), and yards (66) last week, but his production could go elsewhere if he were to sit or be on a snap count.
The next man up? Treylon Burks. The first-round rookie saw most of his snaps outside with Nick Westbrook-Ikhine kicking inside. Burks played just 24 snaps with 14 of those coming on passing downs, but he still finished with three catches for 55 yards on five targets.
Burks led all Tennessee WRs in target share and had a sexy aDOT of 19.8 yards with 34% of the team’s air yards. He could be in line for more work this Monday night with Philips not at 100%. If the injured WR were to sit, Burks’ receiving yard total will certainly head north.
With Tannehill looking Burks' way often when he's on the field and the receiver drawing long targets, I’m loving the Over 27.5 receiving yards for the rookie pass-catcher as this is the bottom of the market for him after opening at 35.5.
Treylon Burks Prop: Over 27.5 receiving yards (-115)
TD bargain shopping
Jamison Crowder passed the eye test last Thursday, as the new Buffalo slot receiver caught three of four targets and was targeted on 33% of his routes. The volume wasn’t huge, but because of it, Crowder might be returning the best value on the Buffalo side to score a touchdown.
FanDuel is paying +675 for a Crowder TD while other books are as short as +330. Considering fellow slot receiver Isaiah McKenzie was targeted just three times, played eight more snaps, and is priced at +320 to score...Crowder's price is right.
With so many mouths to feed in this offense, going for longer TD prices might be the way to go when betting on Buffalo to score.
Jamison Crowder Prop: Anytime touchdown (+675)
Not looking good for Tannehill
Matthew Stafford completed just 29 of his 41 passes in Week 1 against the Bills, with 13 of those completions going Cooper Kupp’s way. The Bills didn’t blitz once but still generated pressure at a 30% clip. With seven men in coverage, pressure coming from a four-man rush, and a weak receiving corps coupled with a bad O-line, Ryan Tannehill might not have a great day in Orchard Park.
The Titans have tallied 76 points vs. the Bills over the last two meetings, but Tannehill had just 216 yards passing in last season's meeting with AJ Brown and Julio Jones on the roster. His pass-catchers are much worse heading into this one, and even with the game script in his favor, I don’t see Tannehill moving the ball well — especially if the wind and rain are a factor.
Tannehill saw the blitz on roughly 49% of his dropbacks last week but will see just as much pressure but more men in coverage Monday night. He targeted his Top-2 wide receivers just four times last week and didn’t have any chemistry with new WR1 Robert Woods.
Highmark Stadium is going to be extremely loud, making it even more difficult for the QB who finished the 2021 season 27th in on-target percentage on long throws.
This market is starting to drop with some books already at 209.5.
Ryan Tannehill Prop: Under 216.5 passing yards (-115)
