The premier game of Sunday afternoon features two Super Bowl hopefuls when the 10-5 Philadelphia Eagles travel to northern New York to take on the 11-4 Buffalo Bills.
There are several matchup advantages for both teams that we can exploit to find great value in a few player props.
Here are my top three NFL player prop picks for the Eagles vs Bills on Sunday, December 28.
Eagles vs Bills props
| Player | Pick |  |
|---|---|---|
 Josh Allen |
Over 6.5 rush attempts | -106 |
 Dallas Goedert |
Under 3.5 receptions | -114 |
| James Cook |
Longest rush Over 15.5 yards | -114 |
Prop bet #1: Josh Allen Over 6.5 rush attempts
Josh Allen has never been afraid to put his body on the line in big games and take off running when needed. The Buffalo Bills need a win to stay alive in the AFC East race and for seeding overall. He should find plenty of rushing opportunities against this Philadelphia Eagles defense.
The Eagles have the seventh ranked passing defense in yards allowed but rank 21st in rushing yards allowed. They also rank 28th in the NFL in defending quarterback scrambles. And nobody scrambles quite like Josh Allen does in key situations.
Allen has at least seven rush attempts in each of the last four games for the Bills and seven times overall this season. The last time the Eagles faced a scrambling quarterback, they allowed 10 rush attempts to Justin Herbert.
There is also the chance we get kneel downs from Allen at the end of either half, so I love his attempts Over rather than his yardage Over.
Prop bet #2: Dallas Goedert Under 3.5 receptions
Dallas Goedert has feasted this season in the play action passing game for the Eagles. He has accounted for a team-high 34.7% target share on play action-passes this season and has totaled twice as many receptions as any other Eagles receiver off play action.
However, the Bills defense has allowed a league low nine receptions to opposing tight ends off play action this season. Instead, they have allowed 80.3% of play action passes targeted to running backs or wide receivers to be completed, which is the second-highest rate allowed by a defense in a season since at least 2016.
The Bills have the second-best passing defense in the NFL in yards allowed and rank first in defending quick passes and third in defending short passes. That is where the Eagles want to get him the ball, but they won’t force it against a great defense.
Goedert has three or less catches in eight games this season and I expect this to be another.
Prop bet #3: James Cook longest rush Over 15.5 yards
James Cook has a slight lead over Jonathan Taylor for the rushing title with two weeks left and I expect him to take advantage of a great matchup here. Cook is second in the NFL in both yards per carry and 10+ yard runs behind only De’Von Achane.
The Eagles defense ranks 21st in the NFL in yards per attempt allowed on the ground. Cook has averaged 6.1 yards per carry when facing a two-high safety shell look, which is the second-most among running backs with at least 50 such carries, trailing only Derrick Henry.
The Eagles defense has aligned with two-high safeties on 77.8% of their snaps this season, which is the second-highest rate in the NFL. Meanwhile, they have loaded the box on a league-low 34.7% of their snaps.
Cook has cleared this number in eight games this season and I expect this to be another one due to the matchup and having space in the run game.
Bet on the NFL at FanDuel!
Make your NFL bets at FanDuel, America's No. 1 sportsbook! Sign up now and by placing $5 on your first bet, you could win $250 in bonus bets if your wager is a winner!
*Eligible U.S. locations only
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
