The NFL Wild Card round wraps up on Monday night when the Houston Texans visit the Pittsburgh Steelers.
A tight spread and low total paint the picture of a grinder of a game. I pick through the Texans vs. Steelers props to see which player markets may hold value, given the game script.
Here are my best NFL picks and Texans vs. Steelers predictions for January 12.
Texans vs Steelers MNF props
| Player | Pick |  |
|---|---|---|
 Nick Chubb |
Over 13.5 rushing yards | -110 |
 Marquez Valdes-Scantling |
Over 1.5 receptions | +175 |
| Ka'imi Fairbairn |
Over 7.5 kicking points | -130 |
Nick Chubb Over 13.5 rushing yards
Nick Chubb was losing snaps to fellow RB Jawhar Jordan over the past month, but with Jordon ruled out for the Wild Card Round (ankle), the veteran rusher jumps back up the depth chart and faces a familiar foe in the Steelers.
He’s still running behind RB1 Woody Marks, but Chubb will be more active in the offense Monday. He drew only one carry in both Week 15 and Week 17 before going for 33 yards on six attempts versus Las Vegas in Week 16.
Chubb will also have fresher legs after sitting out as a healthy scratch in Week 18.
Houston has seen an uptick in handoffs over the past three games, and with Pittsburgh bringing blitz and plenty of pressure, the Texans will utilize the ground game to take the heat off QB C.J. Stroud.
Player projections vary after the injury update to Jordan, but those forecasts folding in the shift in the backfield peg Chub for 20+ yards with a ceiling at 30 yards.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling Over 1.5 receptions
Over the final two games of the regular season, Marquez Valdes-Scantling drew 16 targets for eight total catches without fellow WR D.K. Metcalf in action (suspension).
His role will be diminished with the Steelers’ WR1 returning for the Wild Card round (and Calvin Austin III healthier) but with Houston’s lock-down corner Derek Stingley Jr. assigned to Metcalf, quarterback Aaron Rodgers may have to look elsewhere.
Rodgers already has chemistry with MVS, who started his career with the veteran QB in Green Bay. We’ve seen Rodgers play favorites before and when things break down – as they tend to do against this Houston defense – he’ll look for reliability.
Player models for MVS range from 1.4 to 2.0 receptions with the bulk of projections leaning toward two catches on Monday. At Over 1.5 +175, this is a great value bet.
Ka'imi Fairbairn Over 7.5 kicking points
No team in the NFL has attempted more field goals than the Texans, averaging over three FGAs per game.
Houston’s offense is much more efficient at home compared to on the road, converting on less than 34% of third-down attempts and scoring touchdowns on just 45.45% of its red-zone trips as a visitor.
This Steelers defense is far from elite. If the pass rush isn’t creating chaos, the secondary is getting sliced up. But for all its shortcomings, Pittsburgh still stiffens in the red zone.
It enters the postseason with the seventh-lowest TD rate allowed inside its own 20-yard line. And because of this, they’ve watched foes kick the ninth-most FGAs per game (2.2).
Ka'imi Fairbairn has recorded eight or more points in 12 of his 15 games this season, including each of the past nine contests. While he sees a spike in scoring inside NRG Stadium, he still averages 8.3 kicking points on the road.
Monday’s game at Acrisure Stadium will present mild weather, considering the time of year. Temperatures will hover around freezing with sustained winds at 8 mph and gusts flirting with 20 mph at times.
With a low total and points at a premium, Houston will lean on the leg of Fairbairn a lot.
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Texans vs Steelers MNF prop betting card
- Chubb o13.5 rush yds (-110)
- Valdes-Scantling o1.5 rec (+175)
- Fairbairn o7.5 kick pts (-130)
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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