Things are getting tense in the AFC, and this Texans vs. Chiefs matchup on Sunday Night Football could cast a long shadow over the NFL playoff picture.
My Texans vs. Chiefs props and NFL picks, anchored by a Kareem Hunt anytime TD wager, see both offenses leaning on their strengths in a game where points could be precious.
Texans vs Chiefs SNF props
| Player | Pick |  |
|---|---|---|
 Kareem Hunt |
Anytime touchdown | +140 |
 C.J. Stroud |
Over 232.5 passing yards | -114 |
| Patrick Mahomes |
Over 234.5 passing yards | -114 |
Kareem Hunt anytime touchdown (+140)
Kareem Hunt is the go-to guy when the Kansas City Chiefs get close to the goal line, and although I can see this game going Under 42.5, I can't pass up on the value offered on Hunt's TD prop.
The Houston Texans boast the top scoring defense in the NFL. They've allowed only 12 passing touchdowns all season, tied for second in the league.
However, the Texans drift to eighth-best when it comes to preventing rushing touchdowns, and all nine were surrendered to running backs.
Hunt has been tasked with 31 red-zone carries this season compared to only 10 for Pacheco. The numbers inside the five-yard line are even more stark, with Hunt seeing 12 carries and Pacheco getting zero.
Six of Hunt's seven rushing TDs in 2025 came from handoffs less than five yards from the end zone.
Hunt had a four-game streak with a TD snapped on a short week vs. Dallas, but I see him starting a new one off a mini-bye in this spot, and at his highest odds since Week 8 to boot.
C.J. Stroud Over 232.5 passing yards (-114)
Unless your name is James Cook, you've had a tough day at running back vs. the Chiefs since Week 7.
Neither Jonathan Taylor nor Javonte Williams could crack 60 yards vs. this unit in recent weeks, and with Woody Marks nursing a sore ankle (missed Wednesday practice), the Texans will likely have to go to the air more often than usual to generate offense.
CJ Stroud hit four straight passing yard Overs prior to the game vs. the Broncos in which he was injured. He missed three games, then returned with another Over in a 276-yard passing day vs. the Colts.
The Chiefs have the sixth-fewest sacks in football, so Stroud should have time to go through his progressions, something that's been tough for him to do this year. K.C. has also allowed the ninth-most yards per attempt, so look for some downfield completions to boost Stroud's statistical output.
Patrick Mahomes Over 234.5 passing yards (-114)
Patrick Mahomes is pacing the NFL in passing attempts, and the Texans are fourth in rushing yards allowed per game, so all signs point to another busy day for the Chiefs signal-caller.
Mahomes' passing yards prop is as low as it's been since a Week 3 tilt with the Giants, as oddsmakers respect Houston's stubborn stop unit (third in yards allowed per attempt). However, I think the drop is too drastic.
This prop was in the 270s each of the last two weeks, and has closed at no lower than 254.5 in eight consecutive contests. Mahomes has tallied at least 250 passing yards dating back to Week 4.
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Texans vs Chiefs SNF prop betting card
- Hunt anytime TD (+140)
- Stroud o232.5 pass yds (-114)
- Mahomes o234.5 pass yds (-114)
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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